Poor Potential Coverage for 7-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine, Malawi

Streptococcus pneumoniae infections can be prevented by using new conjugate vaccines, but these vaccines have limited serogroup coverage. We report the first serogrouping data from carried and invasive isolates obtained from children and adults in Malawi. The 7-valent vaccine would cover 41% of invasive isolates from children and 25% from adults. A 9-valent vaccine, including types 1 and 5, would cover 66% of invasive isolates from children and 55% from adults

Inhomogeneous superconductivity in organic conductors: role of disorder and magnetic field

Several experimental studies have shown the presence of spatially inhomogeneous phase coexistence of superconducting and non superconducting domains in low dimensional organic superconductors. The superconducting properties of these systems are found to be strongly dependent on the amount of disorder introduced in the sample regardless of its origin. The suppression of the superconducting transition temperature $T_c$ shows clear discrepancy with the result expected from the Abrikosov-Gor'kov law giving the behavior of $T_c$ with impurities. Based on the time dependent Ginzburg-Landau theory, we derive a model to account for the striking feature of $T_c$ in organic superconductors for different types of disorder by considering the segregated texture of the system. We show that the calculated $T_c$ quantitatively agrees with experiments. We also focus on the role of superconducting fluctuations on the upper critical fields $H_{c2}$ of layered superconductors showing slab structure where superconducting domains are sandwiched by non-superconducting regions. We found that $H_{c2}$ may be strongly enhanced by such fluctuations.Comment: to appear in Journal of Physics: Condensed Matte

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Responses in Individuals with Antibody Deficiency: Findings from the COV-AD Study

BACKGROUND: Vaccination prevents severe morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 in the general population. The immunogenicity and efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in patients with antibody deficiency is poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 in patients with antibody deficiency (COV-AD) is a multi-site UK study that aims to determine the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination in patients with primary or secondary antibody deficiency, a population that suffers from severe and recurrent infection and does not respond well to vaccination. METHODS: Individuals on immunoglobulin replacement therapy or with an IgG less than 4 g/L receiving antibiotic prophylaxis were recruited from April 2021. Serological and cellular responses were determined using ELISA, live-virus neutralisation and interferon gamma release assays. SARS-CoV-2 infection and clearance were determined by PCR from serial nasopharyngeal swabs. RESULTS: A total of 5.6% (n = 320) of the cohort reported prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, but only 0.3% remained PCR positive on study entry. Seropositivity, following two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, was 54.8% (n = 168) compared with 100% of healthy controls (n = 205). The magnitude of the antibody response and its neutralising capacity were both significantly reduced compared to controls. Participants vaccinated with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine were more likely to be seropositive (65.7% vs. 48.0%, p = 0.03) and have higher antibody levels compared with the AstraZeneca vaccine (IgGAM ratio 3.73 vs. 2.39, p = 0.0003). T cell responses post vaccination was demonstrable in 46.2% of participants and were associated with better antibody responses but there was no difference between the two vaccines. Eleven vaccine-breakthrough infections have occurred to date, 10 of them in recipients of the AstraZeneca vaccine. CONCLUSION: SARS-CoV-2 vaccines demonstrate reduced immunogenicity in patients with antibody deficiency with evidence of vaccine breakthrough infection

Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems

Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential skill of a set of prediction experiments, using more than one metric is essential as different choices can significantly alter conclusions about the presence or lack of skill. We find that increasing both the number of hindcasts and ensemble size is important for reliably assessing the correlation and expected error in forecasts. For other metrics, such as dispersion, increasing ensemble size is most important. Probabilistic measures of skill can also provide useful information about the reliability of forecasts. In addition, various methods for generating the different ensemble members are tested. The range of techniques can produce surprisingly different ensemble spread characteristics. The lessons learnt should help inform the design of future operational prediction systems

EMBR-25. Genome-wide genetic and epigenetic assessment of group 4 Medulloblastoma for improved, biomarker driven, prognostication and risk-stratification

Introduction: Medulloblastoma (MB) is the most common malignant brain tumour in children. The most frequent molecular subgroup, Group 4 (MBGrp4) accounts for ~35/40% of cases, however it has the least understood underlying biology. Clinical outcomes are heterogeneous in MBGrp4 and are not accounted for by established clinico-pathological risk factors. There is now a requirement for a comprehensive study of MBGrp4, considering established clinico-pathological features and novel molecular biomarkers to enhance risk-stratification and identify novel therapeutic targets. Methods: A clinically-annotated, retrospective MBGrp4 discovery cohort (n = 420) was generated from UK CCLG institutions, collaborating European centres and SIOP-UKCCSG-PNET3 and HIT-SIOP-PNET4 clinical trials. Contemporary, multi-omics profiling was performed. Focal and arm level copy number aberrations (CNAs) were determined from molecular inversion probe (MIP) or DNA methylation array which additionally provided next generation non-WNT/non-SHH (Grp3/Grp4) subtype classifications. Targeted next-generation DNA sequencing was performed to overlay the mutational landscape. Survival modelling was carried out with patients >3 years old who received craniospinal irradiation. Results: MBGrp4 subtypes were assigned to 88% of tumours with available data. Subtype VIII was strongly associated with i17q (p<0.0001). The favourable-risk cytogenetic signature (2 or 3 of; chromosome 7 gain, chromosome 8 loss and/or chromosome 11 loss) associated with both subtypes VI and VII (p<0.0001). MYCN amplifications were strongly associated with subtype V (p<0.0001) in addition to 16q loss (p<0.0001). The high-risk CNA group was enriched for mutations in genes involved in chromatin remodelling (p<0.0001). Risk factors were identified from multivariate survival modelling. Subtype and CNA groups contributed to improved risk-stratification models that outperformed current clinical schemes. Conclusion: Comprehensive genetic and epigenetic profiling in this large retrospective cohort has improved our understanding of the molecular and clinical heterogeneity within MBGrp4. Incorporation of molecular biomarkers improved risk-stratification for MBGrp4

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO2 concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2 to 5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6 to 9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2 to 5 years and 6 to 9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6 to 9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions

A low mortality, high morbidity Reduced Intensity Status Epilepticus (RISE) model of epilepsy and epileptogenesis in the rat

Animal models of acquired epilepsies aim to provide researchers with tools for use in understanding the processes underlying the acquisition, development and establishment of the disorder. Typically, following a systemic or local insult, vulnerable brain regions undergo a process leading to the development, over time, of spontaneous recurrent seizures. Many such models make use of a period of intense seizure activity or status epilepticus, and this may be associated with high mortality and/or global damage to large areas of the brain. These undesirable elements have driven improvements in the design of chronic epilepsy models, for example the lithium-pilocarpine epileptogenesis model. Here, we present an optimised model of chronic epilepsy that reduces mortality to 1% whilst retaining features of high epileptogenicity and development of spontaneous seizures. Using local field potential recordings from hippocampus in vitro as a probe, we show that the model does not result in significant loss of neuronal network function in area CA3 and, instead, subtle alterations in network dynamics appear during a process of epileptogenesis, which eventually leads to a chronic seizure state. The model’s features of very low mortality and high morbidity in the absence of global neuronal damage offer the chance to explore the processes underlying epileptogenesis in detail, in a population of animals not defined by their resistance to seizures, whilst acknowledging and being driven by the 3Rs (Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of animal use in scientific procedures) principles

Spreading of complex regional pain syndrome: not a random process

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) generally remains restricted to one limb but occasionally may spread to other limbs. Knowledge of the spreading pattern of CRPS may lead to hypotheses about underlying mechanisms but to date little is known about this process. The objective is to study patterns of spread of CRPS from a first to a second limb and the factors associated with this process. One hundred and eighty-five CRPS patients were retrospectively evaluated. Cox’s proportional hazards model was used to evaluate factors that influenced spread of CRPS symptoms. Eighty-nine patients exhibited CRPS in multiple limbs. In 72 patients spread from a first to a second limb occurred showing a contralateral pattern in 49%, ipsilateral pattern in 30% and diagonal pattern in 14%. A trauma preceded the onset in the second limb in 37, 44 and 91%, respectively. The hazard of spread of CRPS increased with the number of limbs affected. Compared to patients with CRPS in one limb, patients with CRPS in multiple limbs were on average 7 years younger and more often had movement disorders. In patients with CRPS in multiple limbs, spontaneous spread of symptoms generally follows a contralateral or ipsilateral pattern whereas diagonal spread is rare and generally preceded by a new trauma. Spread is associated with a younger age at onset and a more severely affected phenotype. We argue that processes in the spinal cord as well as supraspinal changes are responsible for spontaneous spread in CRPS

Diversity and abundance of solitary and primitively eusocial bees in an urban centre: a case study from Northampton (England)

The apparent reduction of solitary and primitively eusocial bees populations has remained a huge concern over the past few decades and urbanisation is considered as one of the factors affecting bees at different scales depending on bee guild. As urbanisation is increasing globally it necessitates more research to understand the complex community dynamics of solitary and primitively eusocial bees in urban settings. We investigated the urban core of a British town for diversity and abundance of solitary bees using standardized methods, and compared the results with nearby meadows and nature reserves. The study recorded 48 species within the town, about 22 % of the total species and 58 % of the genera of solitary bees in the United Kingdom. Furthermore we found the urban core to be more diverse and abundant in solitary and primitively eusocial bees compared to the meadows and nature re-serves. Of particular note was an urban record of the nationally rare Red Data Book species Coelioxys quadridentata and its host Anthophora quadrimaculata. This research demonstrates that urban settings can contribute significantly to the conservation of solitary and primitively eusocial bees in Britain

Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of Saccharomyces cerevisiae Strains Isolated from Different Grape Varieties and Winemaking Regions

We herein evaluate intraspecific genetic diversity of fermentative vineyard-associated S. cerevisiae strains and evaluate relationships between grape varieties and geographical location on populational structures. From the musts obtained from 288 grape samples, collected from two wine regions (16 vineyards, nine grape varieties), 94 spontaneous fermentations were concluded and 2820 yeast isolates were obtained that belonged mainly (92%) to the species S. cerevisiae. Isolates were classified in 321 strains by the use of ten microsatellite markers. A high strain diversity (8–43 strains per fermentation) was associated with high percentage (60–100%) of fermenting samples per vineyard, whereas a lower percentage of spontaneous fermentations (0–40%) corresponded to a rather low strain diversity (1–10 strains per fermentation)