Predicting consumer biomass, size-structure, production, catch potential, responses to fishing and associated uncertainties in the world's marine ecosystems

Existing estimates of fish and consumer biomass in the world’s oceans are disparate. This creates uncertainty about the roles of fish and other consumers in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem processes, the extent of human and environmental impacts and fishery potential. We develop and use a size-based macroecological model to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on predicted consumer biomass, production and distribution. Resulting uncertainty is large (e.g. median global biomass 4.9 billion tonnes for consumers weighing 1 g to 1000 kg; 50% uncertainty intervals of 2 to 10.4 billion tonnes; 90% uncertainty intervals of 0.3 to 26.1 billion tonnes) and driven primarily by uncertainty in trophic transfer efficiency and its relationship with predator-prey body mass ratios. Even the upper uncertainty intervals for global predictions of consumer biomass demonstrate the remarkable scarcity of marine consumers, with less than one part in 30 million by volume of the global oceans comprising tissue of macroscopic animals. Thus the apparently high densities of marine life seen in surface and coastal waters and frequently visited abundance hotspots will likely give many in society a false impression of the abundance of marine animals. Unexploited baseline biomass predictions from the simple macroecological model were used to calibrate a more complex size- and trait-based model to estimate fisheries yield and impacts. Yields are highly dependent on baseline biomass and fisheries selectivity. Predicted global sustainable fisheries yield increases ≈4 fold when smaller individuals (< 20 cm from species of maximum mass < 1kg) are targeted in all oceans, but the predicted yields would rarely be accessible in practice and this fishing strategy leads to the collapse of larger species if fishing mortality rates on different size classes cannot be decoupled. Our analyses show that models with minimal parameter demands that are based on a few established ecological principles can support equitable analysis and comparison of diverse ecosystems. The analyses provide insights into the effects of parameter uncertainty on global biomass and production estimates, which have yet to be achieved with complex models, and will therefore help to highlight priorities for future research and data collection. However, the focus on simple model structures and global processes means that non-phytoplankton primary production and several groups, structures and processes of ecological and conservation interest are not represented. Consequently, our simple models become increasingly less useful than more complex alternatives when addressing questions about food web structure and function, biodiversity, resilience and human impacts at smaller scales and for areas closer to coasts

The IBER study: a feasibility randomised controlled trial of imagery based emotion regulation for the treatment of anxiety in bipolar disorder

BACKGROUND: Intrusive mental imagery is associated with anxiety and mood instability within bipolar disorder and therefore represents a novel treatment target. Imagery Based Emotion Regulation (IBER) is a brief structured psychological intervention developed to enable people to use the skills required to regulate the emotional impact of these images. METHODS: Participants aged 18 and over with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder and at least a mild level of anxiety were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive IBER plus treatment as usual (IBER + TAU) or treatment as usual alone (TAU). IBER was delivered in up to 12 sessions overs 16 weeks. Clinical and health economic data were collected at baseline, end of treatment and 16-weeks follow-up. Objectives were to inform the recruitment process, timeline and sample size estimate for a definitive trial and to refine trial procedures. We also explored the impact on participant outcomes of anxiety, depression, mania, and mood stability at 16-weeks and 32-weeks follow-up. RESULTS: Fifty-seven (28: IBER + TAU, 27: TAU) participants from two sites were randomised, with 50 being recruited within the first 12 months. Forty-seven (82%) participants provided outcome data at 16 and 32-weeks follow-up. Thirty-five participants engaged in daily mood monitoring at the 32-week follow-up stage. Retention in IBER treatment was high with 27 (96%) attending ≥ 7 sessions. No study participants experienced a serious adverse event. DISCUSSION: The feasibility criteria of recruitment, outcome completion, and intervention retention were broadly achieved, indicating that imagery-focused interventions for bipolar disorder are worthy of further investigation

Detection of genotoxic and non-genotoxic renal carcinogens in vitro in NRK-52E cells using a transcriptomics approach. (2012).

There is a need to develop quick, cheap, sensitive and specific methods to detect the carcinogenic potential of chemicals. Currently there is no in vitro model system for reliable detection of non-genotoxic carcinogens (NGTX) and current tests for detection of genotoxic carcinogens (GTX) can have low specificity. A transcriptomics approach holds promise and a few studies have utilised this technique. However, the majority of these studies have examined liver carcinogens with little work on renal carcinogens which may act via renal-specific NGTX mechanisms. In this study the normal rat renal cell line (NRK-52E) was exposed to sub-toxic concentrations of selected rat renal carcinogens and non-carcinogens (NC) for 6 h, 24 h and 72 h. Renal carcinogens were classified based on their presumed mode of action into GTX and NGTX classes. A whole-genome transcriptomics approach was used to determined genes and pathways as potential signatures for GTX, NGTX and those common to both carcinogenic events in vitro. For some of the GTX compounds an S9 drug metabolising system was included to aid pro-carcinogen activation. Only three genes were commonly deregulated after carcinogen (GTX + NGTX) exposure, one Mdm2 with a detection rate of 67%, and p21 and Cd55 with a detection rate of 56%. However, examination of enriched pathways showed that 3 out of 4 NGTX carcinogens and 4 out of 5 GTX carcinogens were related to known pathways involved in carcinogenesis giving a detection rate of 78%. In contrast, none of the NC chemicals induced any of the above genes or well-established carcinogenic pathways. Additionally, five genes (Lingo1, Hmox1, Ssu72, Lyrm and Usp9x) were commonly altered with 3 out of 4 NGTX carcinogens but not with NC or GTX carcinogens. However, there was no clear separation of GTX and NGTX carcinogens using pathway analysis with several pathways being common to both classes. The findings presented here indicate that the NRK-52E cell line has the potential to detect carcinogenic chemicals, although a much larger number of chemicals need to be used to confirm these findings

Transcriptomic alterations induced by Monuron in rat and human renal proximal tubule cells in vitro and comparison to rat renal-cortex in vivo

Monuron (1,1-dimethyl-3-(4-chlorophenyl)urea) is a non-selective phenylurea herbicide, widely used in developing countries although concerns have been raised about its toxicity and carcinogenicity. Monuron was evaluated by the National Toxicology Program in 1988 and shown to be a male rat-specific renal carcinogen. We report that oral administration of Monuron to male rats for 3 days, leads to a larger number of genes being differentially expressed in the renal-cortex than in the liver. Further, we observed up-regulation of cell cycle genes and genes involved in cell proliferation in the renal-cortex while in the liver xenobiotic metabolising enzymes were up-regulated. We also identified one commonly down-regulated gene in both organs – fragile histidine triad gene (Fhit), a putative tumour suppressor gene; however the down-regulation was only significant at the protein level in the liver. In addition, we conducted in vitro whole-genome transcriptomics studies with human and rat renal cortical cells. Rat cells exposed to Monuron showed down-regulation of sterol biosynthesis, spliceosome and cell cycle genes and up-regulation of genes involved in amino acid metabolism and transport. No genes were found to be differentially expressed in human cells exposed to Monuron. Overall, the findings from the in vitro studies showed very little overlap with the whole animal findings

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

The impact of mental health recovery narratives on recipients experiencing mental health problems: Qualitative analysis and change model.

BACKGROUND: Mental health recovery narratives are stories of recovery from mental health problems. Narratives may impact in helpful and harmful ways on those who receive them. The objective of this paper is to develop a change model identifying the range of possible impacts and how they occur. METHOD: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with adults with experience of mental health problems and recovery (n = 77). Participants were asked to share a mental health recovery narrative and to describe the impact of other people's recovery narratives on their own recovery. A change model was generated through iterative thematic analysis of transcripts. RESULTS: Change is initiated when a recipient develops a connection to a narrator or to the events descripted in their narrative. Change is mediated by the recipient recognising experiences shared with the narrator, noticing the achievements or difficulties of the narrator, learning how recovery happens, or experiencing emotional release. Helpful outcomes of receiving recovery narratives are connectedness, validation, hope, empowerment, appreciation, reference shift and stigma reduction. Harmful outcomes are a sense of inadequacy, disconnection, pessimism and burden. Impact is positively moderated by the perceived authenticity of the narrative, and can be reduced if the recipient is experiencing a crisis. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions that incorporate the use of recovery narratives, such as peer support, anti-stigma campaigns and bibliotherapy, can use the change model to maximise benefit and minimise harms from narratives. Interventions should incorporate a diverse range of narratives available through different mediums to enable a range of recipients to connect with and benefit from this material. Service providers using recovery narratives should preserve authenticity so as to maximise impact, for example by avoiding excessive editing

Capture the fracture: a best practice framework and global campaign to break the fragility fracture cycle

Summary The International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) Capture the Fracture Campaign aims to support implementation of Fracture Liaison Services (FLS) throughout the world. Introduction FLS have been shown to close the ubiquitous secondary fracture prevention care gap, ensuring that fragility fracture sufferers receive appropriate assessment and intervention to reduce future fracture risk. Methods Capture the Fracture has developed internationally endorsed standards for best practice, will facilitate change at the national level to drive adoption of FLS and increase awareness of the challenges and opportunities presented by secondary fracture prevention to key stakeholders. The Best Practice Framework (BPF) sets an international benchmark for FLS, which defines essential and aspirational elements of service delivery. Results The BPF has been reviewed by leading experts from many countries and subject to beta-testing to ensure that it is internationally relevant and fit-for-purpose. The BPF will also serve as a measurement tool for IOF to award ‘Capture the Fracture Best Practice Recognition’ to celebrate successful FLS worldwide and drive service development in areas of unmet need. The Capture the Fracture website will provide a suite of resources related to FLS and secondary fracture prevention, which will be updated as new materials become available. A mentoring programme will enable those in the early stages of development of FLS to learn from colleagues elsewhere that have achieved Best Practice Recognition. A grant programme is in development to aid clinical systems which require financial assistance to establish FLS in their localities. Conclusion Nearly half a billion people will reach retirement age during the next 20 years. IOF has developed Capture the Fracture because this is the single most important thing that can be done to directly improve patient care, of both women and men, and reduce the spiralling fracture-related care costs worldwide.</p

Galactic and Extragalactic Samples of Supernova Remnants: How They Are Identified and What They Tell Us

Supernova remnants (SNRs) arise from the interaction between the ejecta of a supernova (SN) explosion and the surrounding circumstellar and interstellar medium. Some SNRs, mostly nearby SNRs, can be studied in great detail. However, to understand SNRs as a whole, large samples of SNRs must be assembled and studied. Here, we describe the radio, optical, and X-ray techniques which have been used to identify and characterize almost 300 Galactic SNRs and more than 1200 extragalactic SNRs. We then discuss which types of SNRs are being found and which are not. We examine the degree to which the luminosity functions, surface-brightness distributions and multi-wavelength comparisons of the samples can be interpreted to determine the class properties of SNRs and describe efforts to establish the type of SN explosion associated with a SNR. We conclude that in order to better understand the class properties of SNRs, it is more important to study (and obtain additional data on) the SNRs in galaxies with extant samples at multiple wavelength bands than it is to obtain samples of SNRs in other galaxiesComment: Final 2016 draft of a chapter in "Handbook of Supernovae" edited by Athem W. Alsabti and Paul Murdin. Final version available at https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-20794-0_90-

Being a Self-Employed Older Woman: From Discrimination to Activism

This article presents an autobiographical account of an older woman’s lived experience of self-employment. Little is known about women who experience ongoing self-employment into their 50s and beyond. Shoshanna’s personal narrative describes her experiences and the challenges she has faced as she reflects upon her attempts to grow and sustain her business and the implications of ageism and gender inequality in laying a claim to entrepreneurship. The narrative proceeds to reflect on her activist work, as it is constructed through the creation of a social enterprise to support older people. Shoshanna’s narrative provides valuable insights into the intersection of age and gender in self-employment moving from discrimination to active support

Is the qualitative research interview an acceptable medium for research with palliative care patients and carers?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Contradictory evidence exists about the emotional burden of participating in qualitative research for palliative care patients and carers and this raises questions about whether this type of research is ethically justified in a vulnerable population. This study aimed to investigate palliative care patients' and carers' perceptions of the benefits and problems associated with open interviews and to understand what causes distress and what is helpful about participation in a research interview.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A descriptive qualitative study. The data were collected in the context of two studies exploring the experiences of care of palliative care patients and carers. The interviews ended with questions about patients' and carers' thoughts on participating in the studies and whether this had been a distressing or helpful event. We used a qualitative descriptive analysis strategy generated from the interviews and the observational and interactional data obtained in the course of the study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The interviews were considered helpful: sharing problems was therapeutic and being able to contribute to research was empowering. However, thinking about the future was reported to be the most challenging. Consent forms were sometimes read with apprehension and being physically unable to sign was experienced as upsetting. Interviewing patients and carers separately was sometimes difficult and not always possible.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The open interview enables the perspectives of patients and carers to be heard, unfettered from the structure of closed questions. It also enables those patients or carers to take part who would be unable to participate in other study designs. The context is at least as important as the format of the research interview taking into account the relational circumstances with carers and appropriate ways of obtaining informed consent. Retrospective consent could be a solution to enhancing participants control over the interview.</p