Global reconstruction of life-history strategies: a case study using tunas

1. Measuring the demographic parameters of exploited populations is central to predicting their vulnerability and extinction risk. However, current rates of population decline and species loss greatly outpace our ability to empirically monitor all populations that are potentially threatened. 2. The scale of this problem cannot be addressed through additional data collection alone, and therefore it is common practice to conduct population assessments based on surrogate data collected from similar species. However, this approach introduces biases and imprecisions that are difficult to quantify. Recent developments in hierarchical modelling have enabled missing values to be reconstructed based on the correlations between available life-history data, linking similar species based on phylogeny and environmental conditions. 3. However, these methods cannot resolve life-history variability among populations or species that are closely placed spatially or taxonomically. Here, theoretically motivated constraints that align with life-history theory offer a new avenue for addressing this problem. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical approach that combines fragmented, multi-species and multi-population data with established life-history theory, in order to objectively determine similarity between populations based on trait correlations (life-history trade-offs) obtained from model fitting. 4. We reconstruct 59 unobserved life-history parameters for 23 populations of tuna that sustain some of the world’s most valuable fisheries. Testing by cross-validation across different scenarios indicated that life-histories were accurately reconstructed when information was available for other populations of the same species. The reconstruction of several traits was also accurate for species represented by a single population, although credible intervals increased dramatically. 5. Synthesis and applications The described Bayesian hierarchical method provides access to life-history traits that are difficult to measure directly, and reconstructs missing life-history information useful for assessing populations and species that are directly or indirectly affected by human exploitation of natural resources. The method is particularly useful for examining populations that are spatially or taxonomically similar. The reconstructed life-history strategies described for the principal market tunas have immediate application to the world-wide management of tuna fisheries that use the steepness of the stock recruitment relationship to determine population productivity

An evolutionary perspective on health psychology: New approaches and applications

Although health psychologists' efforts to understand and promote health are most effective when guided by theory, health psychology has not taken full advantage of theoretical insights provided by evolutionary psychology. Here, we argue that evolutionary perspectives can fruitfully inform strategies for addressing some of the challenges facing health psychologists. Evolutionary psychology's emphasis on modular, functionally specialized psychological systems can inform approaches to understanding the myriad behaviors grouped under the umbrella of “health,” as can theoretical perspectives used by evolutionary anthropologists, biologists, and psychologists (e.g., Life History Theory). We detail some early investigations into evolutionary health psychology, and we provide suggestions for directions for future research

Density-dependent invariance, dimensionless life-histories and the energy-equivalence rule

It is suggested that Damuth’s ‘energy-equivalence rule’ for mammal populations follows from a particular population dynamics invariance rule, one which leads to similar population dynamics when various species are viewed in a particular density and rate-of-change space

A demographic model for sex ratio evolution and the effects of sex-biased offspring costs

© The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecology and Evolution 6 (2016): 1470–1492, doi:10.1002/ece3.1902.The evolution of the primary sex ratio, the proportion of male births in an individual's offspring production strategy, is a frequency-dependent process that selects against the more common sex. Because reproduction is shaped by the entire life cycle, sex ratio theory would benefit from explicitly two-sex models that include some form of life cycle structure. We present a demographic approach to sex ratio evolution that combines adaptive dynamics with nonlinear matrix population models. We also determine the evolutionary and convergence stability of singular strategies using matrix calculus. These methods allow the incorporation of any population structure, including multiple sexes and stages, into evolutionary projections. Using this framework, we compare how four different interpretations of sex-biased offspring costs affect sex ratio evolution. We find that demographic differences affect evolutionary outcomes and that, contrary to prior belief, sex-biased mortality after parental investment can bias the primary sex ratio (but not the corresponding reproductive value ratio). These results differ qualitatively from the widely held conclusions of previous models that neglect demographic structure.National Science Foundation Graduate Research Grant Number: 1122374; NSF Grant Numbers: DEB1145017, DEB1257545; European Research Council Grant Number: 322989; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Academic Programs Offic

Can clade age alone explain the relationship between body size and diversity?

One of the most striking patterns observed among animals is that smaller-bodied taxa are generally much more diverse than larger-bodied taxa. This observation seems to be explained by the mere fact that smaller-bodied taxa tend to have an older evolutionary origin and have therefore had more time to diversify. A few studies, based on the prevailing null model of diversification (i.e. the stochastic constant-rate birth–death model), have suggested that this is indeed the correct explanation, and body-size dependence of speciation and extinction rates does not play a role. However, there are several potential shortcomings to these studies: a suboptimal statistical procedure and a relatively narrow range of body sizes in the analysed data. Here, we present a more coherent statistical approach, maximizing the likelihood of the constant-rate birth–death model with allometric scaling of speciation and extinction rates, given data on extant diversity, clade age and average body size in each clade. We applied our method to a dataset compiled from the literature that includes a wide range of Metazoan taxa (range from midges to elephants). We find that the higher diversity among small animals is indeed, partly, caused by higher clade age. However, it is also partly caused by the body-size dependence of speciation and extinction rates. We find that both the speciation rate and extinction rate decrease with body size such that the net diversification rate is close to 0. Even more interestingly, the allometric scaling exponent of speciation and extinction rates is approximately −0.25, which implies that the per generation speciation and extinction rates are independent of body size. This suggests that the observed relationship between diversity and body size pattern can be explained by clade age alone, but only if clade age is measured in generations rather than years. Thus, we argue that the most parsimonious explanation for the observation that smaller-bodied taxa are more diverse is that their evolutionary clock ticks faster

Density-Dependence Mediates the Effects of Temperature on Growth of Juvenile Blue Catfish in Nonnative Habitats

The combined effects of conspecific density and climate warming on the vital rates of invasive fish species have not been well studied, but may be important in predicting how successful they will be in the future. We evaluated the effects of temperature and population density on monthly time series of sizes of age-0 Blue Catfish Ictalurus furcatus in the James, York, and Rappahannock River subestuaries (defined here as tidally influenced bodies of water that feed into the Chesapeake Bay) from 1996 to 2017, using growing degree-days (GDDs, °C day) as a measure of thermal time. Our pre- dictive linear mixed-effects model explained 86% of the variation in the length of age-0 Blue Catfish. In addition, it indi- cated a strong positive effect of temperature on the growth rate of age-0 Blue Catfish, with individual fish biomass during warm years up to 63% higher than during cool years. Growth rate was influenced negatively by the abundance of age-0 and older fish, resulting in at least fourfold differences in the predicted biomass of Blue Catfish by the end of the first year of life depending on conspecific density. We also observed regional differences in the growth rates of Blue Catfish in the three subestuaries we examined; although growth occurred in all subestuaries, growth was highest for the Rappahannock River population even though this river accumulated the fewest GDDs. Rising water temperatures due to global climate change will likely increase the growth rate of age-0 Blue Catfish in the Chesapeake Bay region, potentially intensifying the negative impacts of this invasive species on the ecology of Chesapeake Bay. However, individual populations respond differently to warming temperatures, and thus, potential increases in the growth rate of age-0 Blue Catfish may be par- tially offset by local conditions that may serve to limit growth

Accessory male investment can undermine the evolutionary stability of simultaneous hermaphroditism

Sex allocation (SA) models are traditionally based on the implicit assumption that hermaphroditism must meet criteria that make it stable against transition to dioecy. This, however, puts serious constraints on the adaptive values that SA can attain. A transition to gonochorism may, however, be impossible in many systems and therefore realized SA in hermaphrodites may not be limited by conditions that guarantee stability against dioecy. We here relax these conditions and explore how sexual selection on male accessory investments (e.g. a penis) that offer a paternity benefit affects the evolutionary stable strategy SA in outcrossing, simultaneous hermaphrodites. Across much of the parameter space, our model predicts male allocations well above 50 per cent. These predictions can help to explain apparently ‘maladaptive’ hermaphrodite systems

Robustness Against Extinction by Stochastic Sex Determination in Small Populations

Sexually reproducing populations with small number of individuals may go extinct by stochastic fluctuations in sex determination, causing all their members to become male or female in a generation. In this work we calculate the time to extinction of isolated populations with fixed number $N$ of individuals that are updated according to the Moran birth and death process. At each time step, one individual is randomly selected and replaced by its offspring resulting from mating with another individual of opposite sex; the offspring can be male or female with equal probability. A set of $N$ time steps is called a generation, the average time it takes for the entire population to be replaced. The number k of females fluctuates in time, similarly to a random walk, and extinction, which is the only asymptotic possibility, occurs when k=0 or k=N. We show that it takes only one generation for an arbitrary initial distribution of males and females to approach the binomial distribution. This distribution, however, is unstable and the population eventually goes extinct in 2^N/N generations. We also discuss the robustness of these results against bias in the determination of the sex of the offspring, a characteristic promoted by infection by the bacteria Wolbachia in some arthropod species or by temperature in reptiles.Comment: 17 pages, 2 figure

Population characteristics of Shovelnose Sturgeon during low- and high-water conditions in the lower Platte River, Nebraska

Cycles of low- and high-water periods (i.e., years) in river systems are natural occurrences, but understanding how cyclical climatological patterns affect fishes, especially long-lived species, is unclear. We assessed Shovelnose Sturgeon population dynamics between a period of low- (2001-2004) and high- (2009-2012) water years in the lower Platte River, Nebraska. Low-flow periods in the lower Platte River can cause disconnection(s) between upstream and downstream reaches resulting in isolated pools and elevated water temperatures leading to stressful situations for aquatic life and possible mortality. Our data show no measurable differences between key population indices between flow condition periods which is consistent with current paradigms for long-lived fish species. Shovelnose Sturgeon relative weights were generally \u3e 80 during both low- and high-water periods and the size structure did not differ between the two periods. Shovelnose Sturgeon abundances, however, were greater during high-water conditions compared to low-water conditions (Kruskal-Wallis: χ2 = 6.15, d.f. = 1, P = 0.01). Shovelnose Sturgeon may have migrated to more suitable habitats during low-water periods to seek refuge allowing these individuals to return during more suitable conditions. Shovelnose Sturgeon and other riverine fish have evolved in a variable environment and have been able to endure relatively minor anthropogenic changes within the lower Platte River. Rivers like the lower Platte River that have retained much of their original physical features and flow regimes are likely key components for the resistance and resilience of riverine species. However, as alterations to landscapes continue and uncertainty exists surrounding future climate predictions, it is unknown how these riverine species will be able to adapt to future changes. The reduction in anthropogenic changes that disrupt flow regimes and increasing connectivity among river systems could provide more fish refuge during stressful conditions helping to protect these riverine species