Modeling pairwise dependencies in precipitation intensities

International audienceIn statistics, extreme events are classically defined as maxima over a block length (e.g. annual maxima of daily precipitation) or as exceedances above a given large threshold. These definitions allow the hydrologist and the flood planner to apply the univariate Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to their time series of interest. But these strategies have two main drawbacks. Firstly, working with maxima or exceedances implies that a lot of observations (those below the chosen threshold or the maximum) are completely disregarded. Secondly, this univariate modeling does not take into account the spatial dependence. Nearby weather stations are considered independent, although their recordings can show otherwise. To start addressing these two issues, we propose a new statistical bivariate model that takes advantages of the recent advances in multivariate EVT. Our model can be viewed as an extension of the non-homogeneous univariate mixture. The two strong points of this latter model are its capacity at modeling the entire range of precipitation (and not only the largest values) and the absence of an arbitrarily fixed large threshold to define exceedances. Here, we adapt this mixture and broaden it to the joint modeling of bivariate precipitation recordings. The performance and flexibility of this new model are illustrated on simulated and real precipitation data

SENSIBILITE D'UN MODELE A AIRE LIMITEE A SA PARAMETRISATION PHYSIQUE : APPLICATION EN AFRIQUE AUSTRALE

Cette étude examine pour la première fois en Afrique australe les incertitudes d'un modèle à aire limitée (Advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW V3011)) liées à sa paramétrisation physique. Les incertitudes sont analysées au pas de temps saisonnier en déterminant les principaux points communs et différences de 27 expériences numériques, avec un focus sur le champ pluviométrique. Ces 27 expériences documentent le trimestre Décembre-Janvier-Février 1993-94, coeur de la saison des pluies de l'Afrique du Sud à régime pluvial tropical, et correspondent à toutes les combinaisons possibles entre 3 schémas de couche limite, 3 schémas de convection et 3 schémas de microphysique. Quelle que soit la paramétrisation testée, la distribution spatiale des pluies est similaire et relativement proche des estimations de pluies. WRF sous-estime la pluviométrie des deux zones de convergence de la région (ZCIT et ZCSI) et la surestime en Afrique subtropicale, surtout sur les reliefs. Les principales différences inter-membres concernent l'amplitude des cumuls saisonniers et les processus pluviogènes qui dépendent principalement des schémas de convection. Grell simule des quantités comparables aux observations in situ alors que Kain-Fritsch et Betts-Miller-Janjic les surestiment nettement, ce qui peut résulter d'une sous-estimation (surestimation) de l'humidité spécifique en moyenne et basse couche observée avec Grell (Kain-Fritsch et Betts-Miller-Janjic). Grell et Kain-Fritsch simulent essentiellement des pluies convectives, ce qui semble cohérent avec l'influence de la circulation tropicale sur cette région. Comparée aux réanalyses ERA40 utilisées pour le forçage latéral, la convergence d'humidité associée à la majorité des expériences est renforcée sur le subcontinent, de même que la vitesse verticale de l'air en moyenne atmosphère. C'est la raison pour laquelle WRF corrige généralement les biais secs d'ERA40. Les différences inter-membres des champs thermo-dynamiques sont fonction des schémas de convection à ce pas de temps, mais aussi d'alliances non systématiques entre les trois types de schémas testés

Secondary instability of stratified Ekman layer roll vortices

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On the late northward propagation of the West African monsoon in summer 2006 in the region of Niger/Mali

International audienceThis paper investigates the fine-scale dynamical processes at the origin of the late northward migration of the monsoon flow in summer 2006 in the region of Niger and Mali (onset on 3 July 2006 compared to the climatological onset date, 24 June). Compared to a 28-year climatology, 2006 NCEP-2 reanalyses show evidence of an anomalous pattern during 10 days between 25 June and 3 July 2006, characterized by the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) blowing from the northeast along a narrow northeast/southwest band located over the Hoggar and Air mountains associated with an unusually strong northeasterly harmattan in the lee of the mountains. Using data collected during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) experiment and mesoscale numerical simulations, this study shows evidence of interaction between the AEJ and the orography supported by the reduced gravity shallow water theory which explains the enhancement of the harmattan downstream of the Hoggar and Air mountains in summer 2006. The enhanced harmattan contributes to move southward the intertropical discontinuity (ITD) defined as the interface between the cool moist southwesterly monsoon flow and the warm dry harmattan. Finally, an interaction between the ITD and African Easterly waves contributes to propagate the ITD southward retreat about 1500 km to the west of the Hoggar and Air mountains

Stochastic Downscaling Method: Application to Wind Refinement

International audienceIn this article, we propose a new stochastic downscaling method: provided a numerical prediction of wind at large scale, we aim to improve the approximation at small scales thanks to a local stochastic model. We first recall the framework of a Lagrangian stochastic model borrowed from S.B. Pope. Then, we adapt it to our meteorological framework, both from the theoretical and numerical viewpoints. Finally, we present some promising numerical results corresponding to the simulation of wind over the Mediterranean Sea

Temperature And Wind Velocity Oscillations Along a Gentle Slope During Sea-Breeze Events

The flow structure on a gentle slope at Vallon dOl in the northern suburbs of Marseille in southern France has been documented by means of surface wind and temperature measurements collected from 7 June to 14 July 2001 during the ESCOMPTE experiment. The analysis of the time series reveals temperature and wind speed oscillations during several nights (about 60--90 min oscillation period) and several days (about 120–180 min oscillation period) during the whole observing period. Oscillating katabatic winds have been reported in the literature from theoretical, experimental and numerical studies. In the present study, the dynamics of the observed oscillating katabatic winds are in good agreement with the theory.In contrast to katabatic winds, no daytime observations of oscillating anabatic upslope flows have ever been published to our knowledge, probably because of temperature inversion break-up that inhibits upslope winds. The present paper shows that cold air advection by a sea breeze generates a mesoscale horizontal temperature gradient, and hence baroclinicity in the atmosphere, which then allows low-frequency oscillations, similar to a katabatic flow. An expression for the oscillation period is derived that accounts for the contribution of the sea-breeze induced mesoscale horizontal temperature gradient. The theoretical prediction of the oscillation period is compared to the measurements, and good agreement is found. The statistical analysis of the wind flow at Vallon dOl shows a dominant north-easterly to easterly flow pattern for nighttime oscillations and a dominant south-westerly flow pattern for daytime oscillations. These results are consistent with published numerical simulation results that show that the air drains off the mountain along the maximum slope direction, which in the studied case is oriented south-west to north-east

Measurement of turbulence spectra using scanning pulsed wind lidars

Turbulent velocity spectra, as measured by a scanning pulsed wind lidar (WindCube), are analyzed. The relationship between ordinary velocity spectra and lidar derived spectra is mathematically very complex, and deployment of the three-dimensional spectral velocity tensor is necessary. The resulting scanning lidar spectra depend on beam angles, line-of-sight averaging, sampling rate, and the full three-dimensional structure of the turbulence being measured, in a convoluted way. The model captures the attenuation and redistribution of the spectral energy at high and low wave numbers very well. The model and measured spectra are in good agreement at two analyzed heights for the u and w components of the velocity field. An interference phenomenon is observed, both in the model and the measurements, when the diameter of the scanning circle divided by the mean wind speed is a multiple of the time between the beam measurements. For the v spectrum, the model and the measurements agree well at both heights, except at very low wave numbers, k1 < 0.005 m?1. In this region, where the spectral tensor model has not been verified, the model overestimates the spectral energy measured by the lidar. The theoretical understanding of the shape of turbulent velocity spectra measured by scanning pulsed wind lidar is given a firm foundation.Aerodynamics, Wind Energy, Flight Performance and PropulsionAerospace Engineerin

Understanding policy success and failure in contemporary English higher education: a study of three policy episodes

Higher education (HE) policy-making in England has features which make it distinctive. An intermediary body between government and institutions, under a number of guises, has endured since the first half of the twentieth century, informed by new liberalism reforms: the changing role of the state, marketisation and new public management, and is perhaps inimitable in having played a central role in policy-making. This thesis is a study of HE policy-making through analysis of the work of one intermediary body, the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE). The thesis contextualises the policy work of HEFCE and its place in making and influencing policy. Three HEFCE policy episodes (e-University, CETLs and LLNs) are used to examine notions of policy success and failure. There is a tendency for policy to be seen as success or failure; this thesis aims to provide a more nuanced, less binary, approach, which captures more dimensions of success and failure. The thesis uses a framework, ‘three dimensions of policy success’ (McConnell 2010), to illuminate how policy success and failure can be understood on a spectrum. The thesis utilises the case studies to examine distinctions and commonalities of success and failure to yield insight and understanding in relation to policy learning. Five key themes arise from the analysis: enabling a strong coalition, trajectory of policy-making between policy-makers and implementers, approaches to policy sustainability, the role of monitoring and evaluation in ensuring value for money and the role of policy-makers in preserving policy goals. The contribution of the research is the application of a theoretical framework to articulate policy success and failure to the field of English HE, which has not hitherto been examined with this framework, and to articulate policy learning as a result

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies