Scientific Models of Human Health Risk Analysis in Legal and Policy Decisions

The quality of scientific predictions of risk in the courtroom and policy arena rests in large measure on how the two differences between normal practice and the legal/policy practice of science are reconciled. This article considers a variety of issues that arise in reconciling these differences, and the problems that remain with scientific estimates of risk when these are used in decisions

A Framework for Assessing the Rationality of Judgments in Carcinogenicity Hazard Identification

Arguing that guidelines for identifying carcinogens now lack a philosophically rigorous framework, the authors present an alternative that draws clear attention to the process of reasoning towards judgments of carcinogenicity

Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Establishing Perchlorate and Goitrogen Risk Mitigation Strategies.

This paper applies probabilistic risk assessment in quantifying risks from cumulative and aggregate risk pathways for selected goitrogens in water and food. Results show that the percentages of individuals with a Hazard Index (HI) value above 1 ranges between 30% and 50% both with and without serum half-life correction when a traditional regulatory assessment approach based on establishment of a No Observed Effects Level (NOEL) is used. When an exposure-response curve is instead used and a threshold of 50% inhibition is assumed, 1.1% or less of the population exceeds an HI value of 1 with no serum half-life correction, rising to as high as 11% when serum half-life correction is applied. If 0% to 5% threshold for iodide uptake inhibition is assumed for production of adverse effects, the percentage of the population with an HI above 1 is 46.2% or less with no serum half-life correction, and 47.2% or less when serum half-life correction is applied. The probabilistic analysis shows that while there are exposed groups for whom perchlorate exposures are the primary cause of individuals having HI values above 1, these constitute significantly less than 1% of the population. Instead, the potential risk from exposure to goitrogens is dominated by nitrates without serum half-life correction and thiocyanates with serum half-life correction, suggesting public health protection is better accomplished by a focus on these and other goitrogens expect in highly limited cases where waterborne perchlorate is at unusually high concentrations.The author acknowledges funding contributions from the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research and the American Water Works Association Research Foundation.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from MDPI via http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph12091037

The Loss of ATRX Increases Susceptibility to Pancreatic Injury and Oncogenic KRAS in Female But Not Male Mice

Female mice lacking ATRX in the pancreas have increased sensitivity to pancreatic cancer, whereas male mice without ATRX are protected. This study identifies such susceptibility in pancreatic cancer and highlights the need for sex-specific approaches in cancer treatment. BACKGROUND: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is the third leading cause of cancer death in North America, accounting for \u3e30,000 deaths annually. Although somatic activating mutations in KRAS appear in 97% of PDAC patients, additional factors are required to initiate PDAC. Because mutations in genes encoding chromatin remodelling proteins have been implicated in KRAS-mediated PDAC, we investigated whether loss of chromatin remodeler.-thalassemia, mental-retardation, X-linked (ATRX) affects oncogenic KRAS\u27s ability to promote PDAC. ATRX affects DNA replication, repair, and gene expression and is implicated in other cancers including glioblastomas and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. The hypothesis was that deletion of Atrx in pancreatic acinar cells will increase susceptibility to injury and oncogenic METHODS: Mice allowing conditional loss of Atrx within pancreatic acinar cells were examined after induction of recurrent cerulein-induced pancreatitis or oncogenic KRAS (KRASG12D). Histologic, biochemical, and molecular analysis examined pancreatic pathologies up to 2 months after induction of Atrx deletion. RESULTS: Mice lacking Atrx showed more progressive damage, inflammation, and acinar-to-duct cell metaplasia in response to injury relative to wild-type mice. In combination with KRASG12D, Atrx-deficient acinar cells showed increased fibrosis, inflammation, progression to acinar-to-duct cell metaplasia, and pre-cancerous lesions relative to mice expressing only KRASG12D. This sensitivity appears only in female mice, mimicking a significant prevalence of ATRX mutations in human female PDAC patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate the absence of ATRX increases sensitivity to injury and oncogenic KRAS only in female mice. This is an instance of a sex-specific mutation that enhances oncogenic KRAS\u27s ability to promote pancreatic intraepithelial lesion formation

Hygiene and biosecurity: the language and politics of risk in an era of emerging infectious diseases

Infectious diseases, such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and avian influenza, have recently been high on the agenda of policy makers and the public. Although hygiene and biosecurity are preferred options for disease management, policy makers have become increasingly aware of the critical role that communication assumes in protecting people during outbreaks and epidemics. This article makes the case for a language-based approach to understanding the public perception of disease. Health language research carried out by the authors, based on metaphor analysis and corpus linguistics, has shown that concepts of journeys, pathways, thresholds, boundaries and barriers have emerged as principal framing devices used by stakeholders to advocate a hygiene based risk and disease management. These framings provide a common ground for debate, but lead to quite different perceptions and practices. This in turn might be a barrier to global disease management in a modern world

Community responses to communication campaigns for influenza A (H1N1): a focus group study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This research was a part of a contestable rapid response initiative launched by the Health Research Council of New Zealand and the Ministry of Health in response to the 2009 influenza A pandemic. The aim was to provide health authorities in New Zealand with evidence-based practical information to guide the development and delivery of effective health messages for H1N1 and other health campaigns. This study contributed to the initiative by providing qualitative data about community responses to key health messages in the 2009 and 2010 H1N1 campaigns, the impact of messages on behavioural change and the differential impact on vulnerable groups in New Zealand.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Qualitative data were collected on community responses to key health messages in the 2009 and 2010 Ministry of Health H1N1 campaigns, the impact of messages on behaviour and the differential impact on vulnerable groups. Eight focus groups were held in the winter of 2010 with 80 participants from groups identified by the Ministry of Health as vulnerable to the H1N1 virus, such as people with chronic health conditions, pregnant women, children, Pacific Peoples and Māori. Because this study was part of a rapid response initiative, focus groups were selected as the most efficient means of data collection in the time available. For Māori, focus group discussion (hui) is a culturally appropriate methodology.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thematic analysis of data identified four major themes: personal and community risk, building community strategies, responsibility and information sources. People wanted messages about specific actions that they could take to protect themselves and their families and to mitigate any consequences. They wanted transparent and factual communication where both good and bad news is conveyed by people who they could trust.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The responses from all groups endorsed the need for community based risk management including information dissemination. Engaging with communities will be essential to facilitate preparedness and build community resilience to future pandemic events. This research provides an illustration of the complexities of how people understand and respond to health messages related to the H1N1 pandemic. The importance of the differences identified in the analysis is not the differences per se but highlight problems with a "one size fits all" pandemic warning strategy.</p

A 10 year case study on the changing determinants of University student satisfaction in the UK

Higher Education (HE), once the prerogative of a tiny elite, is now accessible to larger numbers of people around the world than ever before yet despite the fact that an understanding of student satisfaction has never been more important for today’s universities, the concept remains poorly understood. Here we use published data from the UK’s National Student Survey (NSS), representing data from 2.3 million full-time students collected from 2007 to 2016, as a case study of the benefits and limitations of measuring student satisfaction that might have applicability for other countries, particularly those that, like the UK, have experienced significant growth in student numbers. The analyses showed that the factor structure of the NSS remained generally stable and that the ability of the NSS to discriminate between different subjects at different universities actually improved over the ten-year sample period. The best predictors of overall satisfaction were 'Teaching Quality' and 'Organisation & Management', with 'Assessment & Feedback' having relatively weak predictive ability, despite the sector's tangible efforts to improve on this metric. The tripling of student fees in 2012 for English students (but not the rest of the UK) was used as a ‘natural experiment’ to investigate the sensitivity of student satisfaction ratings to the real economic costs of HE. The tuition fee increase had no identifiable negative effect, with student satisfaction steadily improving throughout the decade. Although the NSS was never designed to measure perceived value-for money, its insensitivity to major changes in the economic costs of HE to the individual suggest that the conventional concept of student satisfaction is incomplete. As such we propose that the concept of student satisfaction: (i) needs to be widened to take into account the broader economic benefits to the individual student by including measures of perceived value-for-money and (ii) should measure students’ level of satisfaction in the years post-graduation, by which time they may have a greater appreciation of the value of their degree in the workplace

Blood pressure self-monitoring in pregnancy (BuMP) feasibility study; a qualitative analysis of women's experiences of self-monitoring

Background Hypertensive disorders in pregnancy are a leading cause of maternal and fetal morbidity worldwide. Raised blood pressure (BP) affects 10% of pregnancies worldwide, of which almost half develop pre-eclampsia. The proportion of pregnant women who have risk factors for pre-eclampsia (such as pre-existing hypertension, obesity and advanced maternal age) is increasing. Pre-eclampsia can manifest itself before women experience symptoms and can develop between antenatal visits. Incentives to improve early detection of gestational hypertensive disorders are therefore strong and self-monitoring of blood pressure (SMBP) in pregnancy might be one means to achieve this, whilst improving women’s involvement in antenatal care. The Blood Pressure Self-Monitoring in Pregnancy (BuMP) study aimed to evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of SMBP in pregnancy. Methods To understand women’s experiences of SMBP during pregnancy, we undertook a qualitative study embedded within the BuMP observational feasibility study. Women who were at higher risk of developing hypertension and/or pre-eclampsia were invited to take part in a study using SMBP and also invited to take part in an interview. Semi-structured interviews were conducted at the women’s homes in Oxfordshire and Birmingham with women who were self-monitoring their BP as part of the BuMP feasibility study in 2014. Interviews were conducted by a qualitative researcher and transcribed verbatim. A framework approach was used for analysis. Results Fifteen women agreed to be interviewed. Respondents reported general willingness to engage with monitoring their own BP, feeling that it could reduce anxiety around their health during pregnancy, particularly if they had previous experience of raised BP or pre-eclampsia. They felt able to incorporate self-monitoring into their weekly routines, although this was harder post-partum. Self-monitoring of BP made them more aware of the risks of hypertension and pre-eclampsia in pregnancy. Feelings of reassurance and empowerment were commonly reported by the women in our sample