Study of a Long Baseline nu_tau Appearance Neutrino Oscillation Experiment in the Quasi-Elastic Regime

We present a study for a design of a long baseline nu_mu to nu_tau appearance experiment to probe the high sin^2(2theta) and low Delta m^2 region relevant to explain the atmospheric neutrino anomaly. The experiment relies on a good identification of quasi-elastic interactions, which is a clean topology that has an important contribution in the lowest Delta m^2 part of the region probed. The detector we studied is a fine grained liquid scintillator detector of 15 kilotons, optimized to detect electrons from tau -> e bar(nu_e) nu_tau decays, while rejecting backgrounds from pi^0 in nu_mu interactions and electrons from the nu_e beam contamination. As a reference, the proposed nu_mu neutrino beam from CERN to Gran Sasso was used.Comment: 17 page

Morphological indicators of growth response of coniferous advance regeneration to overstorey removal in the boreal forest

Regeneration of forest stands through the preservation of existing advance regeneration has gained considerable interest in various regions of North America. The effectiveness of this approach relies on the capacity of regeneration to respond positively to overstory removal. Responses of advance regeneration to release is dependent on tree characteristics and site conditions interacting with the degree of physiological shock caused by the sudden change in environmental conditions. This paper presents a review of the literature describing the relationships between morphological indicators and the advance regeneration response to canopy removal. It focuses primarily on the following species: jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. var. latifolia Engelm.), black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.), interior spruce (Picea glauca x engelmannii), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt). Pre-release height growth has been found to be a good indicator of post-release response for many species. Live-crown ratio also appears to be a good indicator of vigour for shade-tolerant species. The ratio of leader length to length of the longest lateral at the last whorl could serve to describe the degree of suppression before harvest for shade-tolerant species. Number of nodal and internodal branches or buds has been found to be related with vigour for many species. Logging damage has been shown to be an important determinant of seedling response to overstory removal. In contrast, height/diameter ratio has limited value for predicting response to release since it varies with site, species and other factors. No clear relationship between age, height at release and response to release could be demonstrated. This paper also suggests the use of combined indicators and critical threshold values for these indicators

Nonequilibrium Reweighting on the Driven Diffusive Lattice Gas

The nonequilibrium reweighting technique, which was recently developed by the present authors, is used for the study of the nonequilibrium steady states. The renewed formulation of the nonequlibrium reweighting enables us to use the very efficient multi-spin coding. We apply the nonequilibrium reweighting to the driven diffusive lattice gas model. Combining with the dynamical finite-size scaling theory, we estimate the critical temperature Tc and the dynamical exponent z. We also argue that this technique has an interesting feature that enables explicit calculation of derivatives of thermodynamic quantities without resorting to numerical differences.Comment: Accepted for publication in J. Phys. A (Lett.

A population Monte Carlo scheme with transformed weights and its application to stochastic kinetic models

This paper addresses the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions. In particular, we have considered a recently proposed technique known as population Monte Carlo (PMC), which is based on an iterative importance sampling approach. An important drawback of this methodology is the degeneracy of the importance weights when the dimension of either the observations or the variables of interest is high. To alleviate this difficulty, we propose a novel method that performs a nonlinear transformation on the importance weights. This operation reduces the weight variation, hence it avoids their degeneracy and increases the efficiency of the importance sampling scheme, specially when drawing from a proposal functions which are poorly adapted to the true posterior. For the sake of illustration, we have applied the proposed algorithm to the estimation of the parameters of a Gaussian mixture model. This is a very simple problem that enables us to clearly show and discuss the main features of the proposed technique. As a practical application, we have also considered the popular (and challenging) problem of estimating the rate parameters of stochastic kinetic models (SKM). SKMs are highly multivariate systems that model molecular interactions in biological and chemical problems. We introduce a particularization of the proposed algorithm to SKMs and present numerical results.Comment: 35 pages, 8 figure

Assessment of fine scale population genetic diversity and regeneration in Congo basin logged forests

In the Congo Basin most of the light-demanding timber tree species display a deficit of natural regeneration which is a major handicap for sustainable production and certification. Whilst the majority of scientists investigate abiotic and biotic factors explaining that pattern, we hypothesize that tree population density or individual spatial isolation may also affect the tree fitness through inbreeding. In this study, we integrate ecological and genetic approaches to characterize the regeneration potential of a set of priority timber species by (i) estimating pollen dispersal distances at various tree population densities, and (ii) evaluating the impact of increasing spatial isolation on mating characteristics and tree fitness. The ultimate goal is the proposal of minimum population density that prevents inbreeding consequences. Method This ongoing study focuses on 10 timber species (Pericopsis elata, Milicia excelsa, Baillonella toxisperma, Entandrophragma cylindricum, E. utile, E. angolense, E. candollei, Afzelia bipindensis, Erythrophleum suaveloens, Terminalia superba). The data collection was carried out in the logging concession granted to Pallisco in Cameroon. We established two 400-ha plots, where all individuals (DBH > 10 cm) of the target species were inventoried and mapped. A sample of leave or cambium was collected for each of these individuals, as well as for seedlings to characterize patterns of gene flow using genetic tools (nuclear microsatellites). Dispersal agents were identified by direct observations and camera traps. Germination success was characterized in nursery for seeds collected on trees under an increasing isolation gradient. Results Main dispersal agents (wind, bat, rodent) and predators (rodent) were identified for all the species. The gene flow and germination data is still being analyzed and the main results will be presented in the poster. Conclusion Our data will allow characterizing the reproductive biology of a set of important timber species from the Congo basin. These information will strengthen sustainable forest management and the application of certification by adjusting harvesting norms through the use of scientifically-relevant data. In particular, we will tentatively define a maximum distance to be maintained between two adults to allow a qualitative reproduction

Adaptive Importance Sampling in General Mixture Classes

In this paper, we propose an adaptive algorithm that iteratively updates both the weights and component parameters of a mixture importance sampling density so as to optimise the importance sampling performances, as measured by an entropy criterion. The method is shown to be applicable to a wide class of importance sampling densities, which includes in particular mixtures of multivariate Student t distributions. The performances of the proposed scheme are studied on both artificial and real examples, highlighting in particular the benefit of a novel Rao-Blackwellisation device which can be easily incorporated in the updating scheme.Comment: Removed misleading comment in Section

Modelling the population size and dynamics of the British grey seal

Funding: part-funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council to SMRU (Grant no. SMRU1001).1. Grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) were the first mammals to be protected by an Act of Parliament in the UK and are currently protected under UK, Scottish, and EU conservation legislation. Reporting requirements under each of these statutes requires accurate and timely population estimates. Monitoring is principally conducted by aerial surveys of the breeding colonies; these are used to produce estimates of annual pup production. Translating these data to estimates of adult population size requires information about demographic parameters such as fecundity and sex ratio. 2. An age‐structured population dynamics model is presented, which includes density dependence in pup survival, with separate carrying capacities in each of the four breeding regions considered (North Sea, Inner Hebrides, Outer Hebrides, and Orkney). This model is embedded within a Bayesian state–space modelling framework, allowing the population model to be linked to available data and the use of informative prior distributions on demographic parameters. A computer‐intensive fitting algorithm is presented based on particle filtering methods. 3. The model is fitted to region‐level pup production estimates from 1984 to 2010 and an independent estimate of adult population size, derived from aerial surveys of hauled‐out seals in 2008. The fitted model is used to estimate total population size from 1984 to 2010. 4. The population in the North Sea region has increased at a near‐constant rate; growth in the other three regions began to slow in the mid‐1990s and these populations appear to have reached carrying capacity. The total population size of seals aged 1 year or older in 2010 was estimated to be 116 100 (95% CI 98 400–138 600), an increase of <1% on the previous year. 5. The modelling and fitting methods are widely applicable to other wildlife populations where diverse sources of information are available and inference is required for the underlying population dynamics.PostprintPeer reviewe

The equivalent-weights particle filter in a high-dimensional system

In general, particle filters need large numbers of model runs in order to avoid filter degeneracy in high-dimensional systems. The recently proposed, fully nonlinear equivalent-weights particle filter overcomes this requirement by replacing the standard model transition density with two different proposal transition densities. The first proposal density is used to relax all particles towards the high-probability regions of state space as defined by the observations. The crucial second proposal density is then used to ensure that the majority of particles have equivalent weights at observation time. Here, the performance of the scheme in a high, 65 500 dimensional, simplified ocean model is explored. The success of the equivalent-weights particle filter in matching the true model state is shown using the mean of just 32 particles in twin experiments. It is of particular significance that this remains true even as the number and spatial variability of the observations are changed. The results from rank histograms are less easy to interpret and can be influenced considerably by the parameter values used. This article also explores the sensitivity of the performance of the scheme to the chosen parameter values and the effect of using different model error parameters in the truth compared with the ensemble model runs

The structure of the protoplanetary disk surrounding three young intermediate mass stars. II. Spatially resolved dust and gas distribution

[Abridged] We present the first direct comparison of the distribution of the gas, as traced by the [OI] 6300 AA emission, and the dust, as traced by the 10 micron emission, in the protoplanetary disk around three intermediate-mass stars: HD 101412, HD 135344 B and HD 179218. N-band visibilities were obtained with VLTI/MIDI. Simple geometrical models are used to compare the dust emission to high-resolution optical spectra in the 6300 AA [OI] line of the same targets. The disks around HD 101412 and HD 135344 B appear strongly flared in the gas, but self-shadowed in the dust beyond ~ 2 AU. In both systems, the 10 micron emission is rather compact (< 2 AU) while the [OI] brightness profile shows a double peaked structure. The inner peak is strongest and is consistent with the location of the dust, the outer peak is fainter and is located at 5-10 AU. Spatially extended PAH emission is found in both disks. The disk around HD 179218 is flared in the dust. The 10 micron emission emerges from a double ring-like structure with the first ring peaking at ~ 1 AU and the second at ~ 20 AU. No dust emission is detected between ~ 3 -- 15 AU. The oxygen emission seems also to come from a flared structure, however, the bulk of this emission is produced between ~ 1 -- 10 AU. This could indicate a lack of gas in the outer disk or could be due to chemical effects which reduce the abundance of OH -- the parent molecule of the observed [OI] emission -- further away from the star. The three systems, HD 179218, HD 135344 B and HD 101412, may form an evolutionary sequence: the disk initially flared becomes flat under the combined action of gas-dust decoupling, grain growth and dust settling.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&