On the interaction of stochastic forcing and regime dynamics

Stochastic forcing can, sometimes, stabilise atmospheric regime dynamics, increasing their persistence. This counter-intuitive effect has been observed in geophysical models of varying complexity, and here we investigate the mechanisms underlying stochastic regime dynamics in a conceptual model. We use a six-mode truncation of a barotropic β-plane model, featuring transitions between analogues of zonal and blocked flow conditions, and identify mechanisms similar to those seen previously in work on low-dimensional random maps. Namely, we show that a geometric mechanism, here relating to monotonic instability growth, allows for asymmetric action of symmetric perturbations on regime lifetime and that random scattering can “trap” the flow in more stable regions of phase space. We comment on the implications for understanding more complex atmospheric systems

Beyond skill scores: exploring sub-seasonal forecast value through a case study of French month-ahead energy prediction

We quantify the value of sub-seasonal forecasts for a real-world prediction problem: the forecasting of French month-ahead energy demand. Using surface temperature as a predictor, we construct a trading strategy and assess the financial value of using meteorological forecasts, based on actual energy demand and price data. We show that forecasts with lead times greater than 2 weeks can have value for this application, both on their own and in conjunction with shorter range forecasts, especially during boreal winter. We consider a cost/loss framework based on this example, and show that while it captures the performance of the short range forecasts well, it misses the marginal value present in the longer range forecasts. We also contrast our assessment of forecast value to that given by traditional skill scores, which we show could be misleading if used in isolation. We emphasise the importance of basing assessment of forecast skill on variables actually used by end-users.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figures, revised submission to QJRM

Domino: A new framework for the automated identification of weather event precursors, demonstrated for European extreme rainfall

A number of studies have investigated the large-scale drivers and upstream-precursors of extreme weather events, making it clear that the earliest warning signs of extreme events can be remote in both time and space from the impacted region. Integrating and leveraging our understanding of dynamical precursors provides a new perspective on ensemble forecasting for extreme events, focused on building story-lines of possible event evolution. This then acts as a tool for raising awareness of the conditions conducive to high-impact weather, and providing early warning of their possible development. However, operational applications of this developing knowledge-base is limited so far, perhaps for want of a clear framework for doing so. Here, we present such a framework, supported by open software tools, designed for identifying large-scale precursors of categorical weather events in an automated fashion, and for reducing them to scalar indices suitable for statistical prediction, forecast interpretation, and model validation. We demonstrate this framework by systematically analysing the precursor circulations of daily rainfall extremes across 18 regional- to national-scale European domains. We discuss the precursor rainfall dynamics for three disparate regions, and show our findings are consistent with, and extend, previous work. We provide an estimate of the predictive utility of these precursors across Europe based on logistic regression, and show that large-scale precursors can usefully predict heavy rainfall between two and six days ahead, depending on region and season. We further show how for more continental-scale applications the regionally-specific precursors can be synthesised into a minimal set of indices that drive heavy precipitation. We then provide comments and guidance for generalisation and application of our demonstrated approach to new variables, timescales and regions.Comment: 3 figure SI, 22 manuscript pages, 10 figures, submitted to QJRM

One session of remote ischemic preconditioning does not improve vascular function in acute normobaric and chronic hypobaric hypoxia

Application of repeated short duration bouts of ischemia to the limbs, termed remote ischemic preconditioning (RIPC), is a novel technique that may have protective effects on vascular function during hypoxic exposures. In separate parallel-design studies, at sea-level (SL; n=16), and after 8-12 days at high-altitude (HA; n=12; White Mountain, 3800m), participants underwent either a sham protocol or one session of 4x5 minutes of dual-thigh cuff occlusion with 5-minutes recovery. Brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD; ultrasound), pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP; echocardiography), and internal carotid artery flow (ICA; ultrasound) were measured at SL in normoxia and isocapnic hypoxia [end-tidal PO (PETO ) maintained to 50mmHg], and during normal breathing at HA. The hypoxic ventilatory response (HVR) was measured at each location. All measures at SL and HA were obtained at baseline (BL), 1 hour, 24 hours, and 48 hours post-RIPC or sham. At SL, RIPC produced no changes in FMD, PASP, ICA flow, end-tidal gases or HVR in normoxia or hypoxia. At HA, although HVR increased 24 hours post RIPC compared to BL (2.05{plus minus}1.4 vs. 3.21{plus minus}1.2 L•min-1•%SaO2-1, p<0.01), there were no significant differences in FMD, PASP, ICA flow, resting end-tidal gases. Accordingly, a single session of RIPC is insufficient to evoke changes in peripheral, pulmonary, and cerebral vascular function in healthy adults. Although chemosensitivity may increase following RIPC at HA, this did not confer any vascular changes. The utility of a single RIPC session seems unremarkable during acute and chronic hypoxia

Hypoxia, not pulmonary vascular pressure induces blood flow through intrapulmonary arteriovenous anastomoses

Blood flow through intrapulmonary arteriovenous anastomoses (IPAVA) is increased with exposure to acute hypoxia and has been associated with pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP). We aimed to determine the direct relationship between blood flow through IPAVA and PASP in 10 participants with no detectable intracardiac shunt by comparing: (1) isocapnic hypoxia (control); (2) isocapnic hypoxia with oral administration of acetazolamide (AZ; 250 mg, three times-a-day for 48 h) to prevent increases in PASP, and (3) isocapnic hypoxia with AZ and 8.4% NaHCO3 infusion (AZ+HCO3-) to control for AZ-induced acidosis. Isocapnic hypoxia (20 min) was maintained by end-tidal forcing, blood flow through IPAVA was determined by agitated saline contrast echocardiography and PASP was estimated by Doppler ultrasound. Arterial blood samples were collected at rest before each isocapnic-hypoxia condition to determine pH, [HCO3-], and PaCO2. AZ decreased pH (-0.08 ± 0.01), [HCO3-] (-7.1 ± 0.7 mmol/l), and PaCO2 (-4.5 ± 1.4 mmHg; p<0.01), while intravenous NaHCO3 restored arterial blood gas parameters to control levels. Although PASP increased from baseline in all three hypoxic conditions (p<0.05), a main effect of condition expressed an 11 ± 2% reduction in PASP from control (p<0.001) following AZ administration while intravenous NaHCO3 partially restored the PASP response to isocapnic hypoxia. Blood flow through IPAVA increased during exposure to isocapnic hypoxia (p<0.01) and was unrelated to PASP, cardiac output and pulmonary vascular resistance for all conditions. In conclusion, isocapnic hypoxia induces blood flow through IPAVA independent of changes in PASP and the influence of AZ on the PASP response to isocapnic hypoxia is dependent upon the H+ concentration or PaCO2. Abbreviations list: AZ, acetazolamide; FEV1, forced expiratory volume in 1 second; FIO2, fraction of inspired oxygen; FVC, forced vital capacity; Hb, total haemoglobin; HPV, hypoxic pulmonary vasoconstriction; HR, heart rate; IPAVA, intrapulmonary arteriovenous anastomoses; MAP, mean arterial pressure; PASP, pulmonary artery systolic pressure; PETCO2, end-tidal partial pressure of carbon dioxide; PETO2, end-tidal partial pressure of oxygen; PFO, patent foramen ovale; PVR, pulmonary vascular resistance; Q̇c, cardiac output; RVOT, right ventricular outflow tract; SpO2, oxyhaemoglobin saturation; SV, stroke volume; TRV, tricuspid regurgitant velocity; V̇E, minute ventilation; VTI, velocity-time integra

Analysis of the African coelacanth genome sheds light on tetrapod evolution

It was a zoological sensation when a living specimen of the coelacanth was first discovered in 1938, as this lineage of lobe-finned fish was thought to have gone extinct 70 million years ago. The modern coelacanth looks remarkably similar to many of its ancient relatives, and its evolutionary proximity to our own fish ancestors provides a glimpse of the fish that first walked on land. Here we report the genome sequence of the African coelacanth, Latimeria chalumnae. Through a phylogenomic analysis, we conclude that the lungfish, and not the coelacanth, is the closest living relative of tetrapods. Coelacanth protein-coding genes are significantly more slowly evolving than those of tetrapods, unlike other genomic features . Analyses of changes in genes and regulatory elements during the vertebrate adaptation to land highlight genes involved in immunity, nitrogen excretion and the development of fins, tail, ear, eye, brain, and olfaction. Functional assays of enhancers involved in the fin-to-limb transition and in the emergence of extra-embryonic tissues demonstrate the importance of the coelacanth genome as a blueprint for understanding tetrapod evolution

On the variability and forced response of atmospheric regime systems

The nonlinear, eddy-driven dynamics of the Euro-Atlantic troposphere are notoriously complex. The regime hypothesis – the idea that the continuous range of atmospheric flow states can be meaningfully partitioned into a small number of large scale ‘regimes’ – provides a conceptual framework from which to understand the impacts of internal variability and external forcing on the Euro-Atlantic. In reanalysis and realistic model output, regime structure is noisy and often difficult to detect, confounded by the high dimensionality of the system and by model deficiencies. Therefore much of our understanding of regime systems comes from simple, conceptual models, where the mechanisms of regime dynamics can be studied cleanly. This dialogue across the hierarchy of models has been very fruitful, but it can be challenging to translate the behaviour of simple systems into testable hypotheses for the behaviour of the vastly more complex systems studied by the climate modeller or weather forecaster. This thesis contributes to bridging this divide by working across the model hierarchy to compare the behaviour of simple and complex regime systems. In Chapter 1 we explain the phenomena of stochastically induced regime persistence using the Charney deVore model, and frame our results in physical terms. To assess the impact of stochasticity on more complex regime structure, we find we must first address the large sampling variability in regime statistics. We introduce a novel regime framework in chapter 2 which provides very stable regime structure, and use it to compare stochastic and deterministic climate model simulations. In chapter 3 we characterise historical regime variability and assess the regime response of European climate change in CMIP6. We explicitly test the long-standing hypothesis that anthropogenic forcing will primarily change the frequency of regime occurrence rather than the regime patterns themselves. We show the hypothesis broadly holds and then extend the simple regime forcing model to better capture climate model trends

A Joint Perspective on North American and Euro‐Atlantic Weather Regimes

Weather regimes are recurrent and quasi-stationary large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, typically linking to surface weather. Two commonly used sets of weather regimes are wintertime North American and Euro-Atlantic regimes. Notwithstanding recent evidence pointing to a connection between winter weather in North America and Europe, there is little knowledge on the possible relation between North American and Euro-Atlantic regimes. Here, we find that specific pairs of North American and Euro-Atlantic regimes show a close visual and statistical correspondence. Moreover, the joint analysis of the two sets of regimes can provide medium-range statistical predictability for anomalies in their occurrence frequencies. Conditioning on North American weather regimes also results in anomalies in both the large-scale circulation during specific Euro-Atlantic regimes, and the associated European surface weather. We conclude that there is a benefit in conducting joint analyses of North American and European weather regimes, as opposed to considering the two in isolation

Beyond skill scores: exploring sub‐seasonal forecast value through a case‐study of French month‐ahead energy prediction

We quantify the value of sub-seasonal forecasts for a real-world prediction problem: the forecasting of French month-ahead energy demand. Using surface temperature as a predictor, we construct a trading strategy and assess the financial value of using meteorological forecasts, based on actual energy demand and price data. We show that forecasts with lead times greater than 2 weeks can have value for this application, both on their own and in conjunction with shorter range forecasts, especially during boreal winter. We consider a cost/loss framework based on this example, and show that while it captures the performance of the short range forecasts well, it misses the marginal value present in the longer range forecasts. We also contrast our assessment of forecast value to that given by traditional skill scores, which we show could be misleading if used in isolation. We emphasise the importance of basing assessment of forecast skill on variables actually used by end-users.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figures, revised submission to QJRM