High Resolution PV Power Modeling for Distribution Circuit Analysis

NREL has contracted with Clean Power Research to provide 1-minute simulation datasets of PV systems located at three high penetration distribution feeders in the service territory of Southern California Edison (SCE): Porterville, Palmdale, and Fontana, California. The resulting PV simulations will be used to separately model the electrical circuits to determine the impacts of PV on circuit operations

Microclimatological consequences for plant and microbial composition in Sphagnum-dominated peatlands

In three Scandinavian peatlands we studied to what extent plant and microbial community compositions are governed by local-scale microhabitat, with a special interest in the effect of aspect (i.e. exposition of slopes). Despite differences in solar irradiance between the south- and north-facing slopes, maximum temperature was elevated in the south-facing slopes at the most northern site only. Pore-water nutrient concentrations were not affected by aspect, yet dissolved organic carbon concentrations were higher in the south-facing microhabitats. This was likely caused by higher vascular plant biomass. Plant and microbial community composition clearly differed among sites. In all three sites, microhabitat (i.e. prevailing water-table depth) affected the plant and microbial community compositions. Aspect, however, did not affect community composition, even though microclimate significantly differed between the south- and the north-facing aspects at the northernmost site. Our results highlight the complex link between plant community composition, microbial community and environmental conditions, which deserves much more attention than currently in order to fully understand the effects of climate change on peatland ecosystem function.I

Carbon-nitrogen interactions in European forests and semi-natural vegetation - Part 2: Untangling climatic, edaphic, management and nitrogen deposition effects on carbon sequestration potentials

The effects of atmospheric nitrogen deposition (N$_{dep}$) on carbon (C) sequestration in forests have often been assessed by relating differences in productivity to spatial variations of N$_{dep}$ across a large geographic domain. These correlations generally suffer from covariation of other confounding variables related to climate and other growth-limiting factors, as well as large uncertainties in total (dry+wet) reactive nitrogen (N$_{r}$) deposition.We propose a methodology for untangling the effects of N$_{dep}$ from those of meteorological variables, soil water retention capacity and stand age, using a mechanistic forest growth model in combination with eddy covariance CO$_{2}$ exchange fluxes from a Europe-wide network of 22 forest flux towers. Total N$_{r}$ deposition rates were estimated from local measurements as far as possible. The forest data were compared with data from natural or semi-natural, non-woody vegetation sites. The response of forest net ecosystem productivity to nitrogen deposition (dNEP= dN$_{dep}$) was estimated after accounting for the effects on gross primary productivity (GPP) of the co-correlates by means of a meta-modelling standardization procedure, which resulted in a reduction by a factor of about 2 of the uncorrected, apparent dGPP/dN$_{dep}$ value. This model-enhanced analysis of the C and N$_{dep}$ flux observations at the scale of the European network suggests a mean overall dNEP/dN$_{dep}$ response of forest lifetime C sequestration to N$_{dep}$ of the order of 40–50 g C per g N, which is slightly larger but not significantly different from the range of estimates published in the most recent reviews. Importantly, patterns of gross primary and net ecosystem productivity versus N$_{dep}$ were non-linear, with no further growth responses at high N$_{dep}$ levels (N$_{dep}$ >2.5–3 gNm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$) but accompanied by increasingly large ecosystem N losses by leaching and gaseous emissions. The reduced increase in productivity per unit N deposited at high N$_{dep}$ levels implies that the forecast increased N$_{r}$ emissions and increased Ndep levels in large areas of Asia may not positively impact the continent’s forest CO$_{2}$ sink. The large level of unexplained variability in observed carbon sequestration efficiency (CSE) across sites further adds to the uncertainty in the dC/dN response

Testate amoeba response to acid deposition in a Scottish peatland

Peatlands around the world are exposed to anthropogenic or volcanogenic sulphur pollution. Impacts on peatland microbial communities have been inferred from changes in gas flux but have rarely been directly studied. In this study, the impacts of sulphuric acid deposition on peatland testate amoebae were investigated by analysis of experimental plots on a Scottish peatland almost 7 years after acid treatment. Results showed reduced concentration of live amoebae and changes in community structure which remained significant even when differences in pH were accounted for. Several possible explanations for the impacts can be proposed including taphonomic processes and changes in plant communities. Previous studies have inferred a shift from methanogenic archaea to sulphate-reducing bacteria in sulphate-treated peats; it is possible that the impacts detected here might relate to this change, perhaps through testate amoeba predation on methanotrophs

Peatland Initiation, Carbon Accumulation, and 2 ka Depth in the James Bay Lowland and Adjacent Regions

Copyright © 2014 University of Colorado at Boulder, Institute of Arctic and Alpine ResearchPeatlands surrounding Hudson and James Bays form the second largest peatland complex in the world and contain major stores of soil carbon (C). This study utilized a transect of eight ombrotrophic peat cores from remote regions of central and northern Ontario to quantify the magnitude and rate of C accumulation since peatland initiation and for the past 2000 calendar years before present (2 ka). These new data were supplemented by 17 millennially resolved chronologies from a literature review covering the Boreal Shield, Hudson Plains, and Taiga Shield bordering Hudson and James Bays. Peatlands initiated in central and northern Ontario by 7.8 ka following deglaciation and isostatic emergence of northern areas to above sea level. Total C accumulated since inception averaged 109.7 ± (std. dev.) 36.2 kg C m–2. Approximately 40% of total soil C has accumulated since 2 ka at an average apparent rate of 20.2 ± 6.9 g C m–2 yr–1. The 2 ka depths correlate significantly and positively with modern gridded climate estimates for mean annual precipitation, mean annual air temperature, growing degree-days > 0 °C, and photosynthetically active radiation integrated over days > 0 °C. There are significantly shallower depths in permafrost peatlands. Vertical peat accumulation was likely constrained by temperature, growing season length, and photosynthetically active radiation over the last 2 ka in the Hudson Bay Lowlands and surrounding regions.US National Science Foundatio

Carbon-nitrogen interactions in European forests and semi-natural vegetation - Part 1: Fluxes and budgets of carbon, nitrogen and greenhouse gases from ecosystem monitoring and modelling

The impact of atmospheric reactive nitrogen (N$_{r}$) deposition on carbon (C) sequestration in soils and biomass of unfertilized, natural, semi-natural and forest ecosystems has been much debated. Many previous results of this dC/dN response were based on changes in carbon stocks from periodical soil and ecosystem inventories, associated with estimates of N$_{r}$ deposition obtained from large-scale chemical transport models. This study and a companion paper (Flechard et al., 2020) strive to reduce uncertainties of N effects on C sequestration by linking multi-annual gross and net ecosystem productivity estimates from 40 eddy covariance flux towers across Europe to local measurement-based estimates of dry and wet N$_{r}$ deposition from a dedicated collocated monitoring network. To identify possible ecological drivers and processes affecting the interplay between C and N$_{r}$ inputs and losses, these data were also combined with in situ flux measurements of NO, N$_{2}$O and CH$_{4}$ fluxes; soil NO$_{3}$̅ leaching sampling; and results of soil incubation experiments for N and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as surveys of available data from online databases and from the literature, together with forest ecosystem (BASFOR) modelling. Multi-year averages of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in forests ranged from -70 to 826 gCm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$ at total wet+dry inorganic N$_{r}$ deposition rates (N$_{dep}$) of 0.3 to 4.3 gNm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$ and from -4 to 361 g Cm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$ at N$_{dep}$ rates of 0.1 to 3.1 gNm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$ in short semi-natural vegetation (moorlands, wetlands and unfertilized extensively managed grasslands). The GHG budgets of the forests were strongly dominated by CO$_{2}$ exchange, while CH$_{4}$ and N$_{2}$O exchange comprised a larger proportion of the GHG balance in short semi-natural vegetation. Uncertainties in elemental budgets were much larger for nitrogen than carbon, especially at sites with elevated N$_{dep}$ where N$_{r}$ leaching losses were also very large, and compounded by the lack of reliable data on organic nitrogen and N$_{2}$ losses by denitrification. Nitrogen losses in the form of NO, N$_{2}$O and especially NO$_{3}$̅ were on average 27%(range 6 %–54 %) of N$_{dep}$ at sites with N$_{dep}$ 3 gNm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$. Such large levels of N$_{r}$ loss likely indicate that different stages of N saturation occurred at a number of sites. The joint analysis of the C and N budgets provided further hints that N saturation could be detected in altered patterns of forest growth. Net ecosystem productivity increased with N$_{r}$ deposition up to 2–2.5 gNm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$, with large scatter associated with a wide range in carbon sequestration efficiency (CSE, defined as the NEP = GPP ratio). At elevated N$_{dep}$ levels (> 2.5 gNm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$), where inorganic N$_{r}$ losses were also increasingly large, NEP levelled off and then decreased. The apparent increase in NEP at low to intermediate N$_{dep}$ levels was partly the result of geographical cross-correlations between N$_{dep}$ and climate, indicating that the actual mean dC/dN response at individual sites was significantly lower than would be suggested by a simple, straightforward regression of NEP vs. N$_{dep}$

Diagnosis of Kawasaki Disease Using a Minimal Whole-Blood Gene Expression Signature.

Importance: To date, there is no diagnostic test for Kawasaki disease (KD). Diagnosis is based on clinical features shared with other febrile conditions, frequently resulting in delayed or missed treatment and an increased risk of coronary artery aneurysms. Objective: To identify a whole-blood gene expression signature that distinguishes children with KD in the first week of illness from other febrile conditions. Design, Setting, and Participants: The case-control study comprised a discovery group that included a training and test set and a validation group of children with KD or comparator febrile illness. The setting was pediatric centers in the United Kingdom, Spain, the Netherlands, and the United States. The training and test discovery group comprised 404 children with infectious and inflammatory conditions (78 KD, 84 other inflammatory diseases, and 242 bacterial or viral infections) and 55 healthy controls. The independent validation group comprised 102 patients with KD, including 72 in the first 7 days of illness, and 130 febrile controls. The study dates were March 1, 2009, to November 14, 2013, and data analysis took place from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Whole-blood gene expression was evaluated using microarrays, and minimal transcript sets distinguishing KD were identified using a novel variable selection method (parallel regularized regression model search). The ability of transcript signatures (implemented as disease risk scores) to discriminate KD cases from controls was assessed by area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity at the optimal cut point according to the Youden index. Results: Among 404 patients in the discovery set, there were 78 with KD (median age, 27 months; 55.1% male) and 326 febrile controls (median age, 37 months; 56.4% male). Among 202 patients in the validation set, there were 72 with KD (median age, 34 months; 62.5% male) and 130 febrile controls (median age, 17 months; 56.9% male). A 13-transcript signature identified in the discovery training set distinguished KD from other infectious and inflammatory conditions in the discovery test set, with AUC of 96.2% (95% CI, 92.5%-99.9%), sensitivity of 81.7% (95% CI, 60.0%-94.8%), and specificity of 92.1% (95% CI, 84.0%-97.0%). In the validation set, the signature distinguished KD from febrile controls, with AUC of 94.6% (95% CI, 91.3%-98.0%), sensitivity of 85.9% (95% CI, 76.8%-92.6%), and specificity of 89.1% (95% CI, 83.0%-93.7%). The signature was applied to clinically defined categories of definite, highly probable, and possible KD, resulting in AUCs of 98.1% (95% CI, 94.5%-100%), 96.3% (95% CI, 93.3%-99.4%), and 70.0% (95% CI, 53.4%-86.6%), respectively, mirroring certainty of clinical diagnosis. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, a 13-transcript blood gene expression signature distinguished KD from other febrile conditions. Diagnostic accuracy increased with certainty of clinical diagnosis. A test incorporating the 13-transcript disease risk score may enable earlier diagnosis and treatment of KD and reduce inappropriate treatment in those with other diagnoses