An Investigation of the Pay-As-You-Go Financing Method Using a Contingency Fund and Optimal Control Techniques

In many countries, aging populations are expected to lead to substantial rises in the cost of public pension systems financed by the pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) method. These systems will need to be adapted to cope with these changes. This paper considers one approach to reform, described in the literature as “parametric” (see, e.g., Disney 2000), and develops a model for adapting the PAYGO method using a contingency fund and optimal control techniques. The solution of the original model is investigated within two different frameworks: a deterministic-continuous one and a stochastic-discrete one. Finally, a case study applied to Greece is discussed, leading to a potentially acceptable proposal of a smooth path for contribution rates and the age of eligibility for the normal retirement pension

Flexible and affordable methods of paying for long-term care insurance

With the expected dramatic increase in the number of older people requiring care, and the tightening of public funding, individuals will be increasingly expected to contribute to, and plan for, their own care in later life. However, history shows us that people are very reluctant to save for their care to the extent that there are no longer any providers of traditional pre-funded long-term care insurance products in the UK to help address this problem. In this paper, we consider a product which is a disability-linked annuity that provides benefit payments towards the cost of both domiciliary and residential nursing care. We investigate different ways in which individuals can purchase this product with the goal of minimising the impact on their living standards, hence making the purchase of the product more palatable. As well as the traditional methods of purchasing insurance out of income and savings, we show that this product can also be purchased by making use of assets such as residential property. This flexibility would allow individuals to have control over the timing of their payments to fit around their lifestyle, particularly those with low retirement incomes. It follows that some people will be more attracted to particular payment methods than others and a framework is presented which segments people according to individual circumstances. A model is developed showing how the annuity works and how premiums are calculated

Human blood autoantibodies in the detection of colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common malignancy in the western world. Early detection and diagnosis of all cancer types is vital to improved prognosis by enabling early treatment when tumours should be both resectable and curable. Sera from 3 different cohorts; 42 sera (21 CRC and 21 matched controls) from New York, USA, 200 sera from Pittsburgh, USA (100 CRC and 100 controls) and 20 sera from Dundee, UK (10 CRC and 10 controls) were tested against a panel of multiple tumour-associated antigens (TAAs) using an optimised multiplex microarray system. TAA specific IgG responses were interpo- lated against the internal IgG standard curve for each sample. Individual TAA specific responses were examined in each cohort to determine cutoffs for a robust initial scoring method to establish sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity and specificity of combinations of TAAs provided good discrimination between cancer-positive and normal serum. The overall sensitivity and specificity of the sample sets tested against a panel of 32 TAAs were 61.1% and 80.9% respectively for 6 antigens; p53, AFP, K RAS, Annexin, RAF1 and NY-CO16. Furthermore, the observed sensitivity in Pittsburgh sample set in different clinical stages of CRC;stageI(n=19),stageII(n=40),stageIII(n=34)andstageIV(n=6)wassimilar (73.6%, 75.0%, 73.5% and 83.3%, respectively), with similar levels of sensitivity for right and left sided CRC. We identified an antigen panel of sufficient sensitivity and specificity for early detection of CRC, based upon serum profiling of autoantibody response using a robust multiplex antigen microarray technology. This opens the possibility of a blood test for screening and detection of early colorectal cancer. However this panel will require further validation studies before they can be proposed for clinical practice

The Lancaster Care Charter

In the fall of 1991 the Munich Design Charter was published in Design Issues. This charter was written as a design-led “call to arms” on the future nations and boundaries of Europe. The signatories of the Munich Design Charter saw the problem of Europe, at that time, as fundamentally a problem of form that should draw on the creativity and expertise of design. Likewise, the Does Design Care…? workshop held at Imagination, Lancaster University in the autumn of 2017 brought together a multidisciplinary group of people from 16 nations across 5 continents, who, at a critical moment in design discourse saw a problem with the future of Care. The Lancaster Care Charter has been written in response to the vital question “Does Design Care…?” and via a series of conversations, stimulated by a range of presentations that explored a range of provocations, insights, and more questions, provides answers for the contemporary context of Care. With nation and boundary now erased by the flow of Capital the Charter aims to address the complex and urgent challenges for Care as both the future possible and the responsibility of design. The Lancaster Care Charter presents a collective vision and sets out new pragmatic encounters for the design of Care and the care of Design

Fertility and population change in the United Kingdom

As in most wealthy countries, the United Kingdom (UK) population is aging and is set to continue to age for the next several decades. Recent and projected rates of change in the share of the elderly population are slow, however, compared to most other European Union (EU)-27 countries. Although since 1998 net migration has played some role, the UK’s relatively benign demographic profile has much to do with its relatively high fertility rates. Population issues, low fertility in particular, are not considered to be a major policy concern or an appropriate target for government intervention. A combination of moderately high fertility and high female employment has (at least historically) been achieved without implementing the kinds of work-family reconciliation policies that are credited with sustaining fertility elsewhere in Europe. A laissez-faire approach to the economy and residual approach to welfare may well have sustained UK fertility levels by facilitating childbearing in more socio-economically disadvantaged families. Recent, path-deviant, work-family reconciliation policies have been adopted, but the wider institutional context has moderated their potential to reduce the costs of childbearing

Tax relief and partnership pensions

Government support of private (occupational and personal) pensions through the system of tax reliefs is large: between one quarter and one third that of direct support of state pensions through public expenditure. However, it is regressive, lacks transparency and is difficult to control. This paper argues that it should be replaced by a cost-neutral matching grant or tax-credit scheme. Such a scheme would embody the ‘partnership’ idea implicit in much government policy in this area, but would be much more progressive, more open, and more accountable than existing arrangements. The argument is illustrated by statistical comparisons of the distributional impact of the present system and three alternative versions of the tax-credit scheme. An appendix discusses the methodology for calculating the cost of pension tax reliefs over time