Nonfixed Retirement Age for University Professors: Modeling Its Effects on New Faculty Hires

We model the set of tenure-track faculty members at a university as a queue, where “customers” in queue are faculty members in active careers. Arrivals to the queue are usually young, untenured assistant professors, and departures from the queue are primarily those who do not pass a promotion or tenure hurdle and those who retire. There are other less-often-used ways to enter and leave the queue. Our focus is on system effects of the elimination of mandatory retirement age. In particular, we are concerned with estimating the number of assistant professor slots that annually are no longer available because of the elimination of mandatory retirement. We start with steady-state assumptions that require use of Little's Law of Queueing, and we progress to a transient model using system dynamics. We apply these simple models using available data from our home university, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.United States. National Institutes of Health (5U01GM094141-02

Challenges for biomedical research workforce development

Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)-- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2012.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 63-66).The U.S. government doubled NIH appropriations between 1998 and 2003, aiming to significantly foster research activities in biomedicine. However, several indicators demonstrate not only that the impact of the budget increase fell short of expectations; in many cases it resulted in unintended negative effects. Compared to pre-doubling conditions, researchers now spend significantly more time writing grant proposals, impacting their ability to carry out research. Paradoxically, the probability with which a grant proposal is accepted for funding deteriorated sharply after the doubling and continues to fall. The average age of first-time NIH grant recipients has increased by almost a decade since the early 70's, while the percentage of biomedical doctorates securing tenured or tenure-track positions relentlessly drops. These trends represent a threat to the quality, stability, and availability of the U.S. biomedical research workforce. This thesis takes a system dynamics approach to test the hypothesis that a sudden and temporary increase in research funds can result in unintended long-term effects hampering research discoveries and workforce development. A simulation model is therefore developed using the available literature and calibrated to replicate historical trends. The model is then used to perform experiments that test the effects of changes in certain parameters or policies. The outcomes of these experiments provide policy insights that can help improve the effectiveness of NIH funding and its impact on the workforce.by Mauricio Gomez Diaz.S.M.in Technology and Polic

Magnified Effects of Changes in NIH Research Funding Levels

What happens within the university-based research enterprise when a federal funding agency abruptly changes research grant funding levels, up or down? We use simple difference equation models to show that an apparently modest increase or decrease in funding levels can have dramatic effects on researchers, graduate students, postdocs, and the overall research enterprise. The amplified effect is due to grants lasting for an extended period, thereby requiring the majority of funds available in one year to pay for grants awarded in previous years. We demonstrate the effect in various ways, using National Institutes of Health data for two situations: the historical doubling of research funding from 1998 to 2003 and the possible effects of “sequestration” in January 2013. We posit human responses to such sharp movements in funding levels and offer suggestions for amelioration.National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U.S.) (Grant 5U01GM094141-02

Estudio epidemiologico de los factores de riesgo que influyen en el desarrollo de la de diabetes mellitus tipo. Ii en los municipios de: acevedo - huila, bogota, cali, facatativa - cundinamarca. Y pasto - nariño

La diabetes es una enfermedad crónica de base genética que se caracteriza por presentar varias manifestaciones: a) un síndrome metabólico; b) síndrome vascular; c) síndrome neuro pático. Existen enfermedades que son de delicado tratamiento, que requieren un control permanente y un compromiso tanto del paciente como del médico tratante, una de estas enfermedades es la Diabetes tipo II. El objetivo de este trabajo es que como Regentes de Farmacia estemos en la capacidad de conocer y analizar los casos que se presentan en: Acevedo-Huila, Bogotá, Cali, Facatativá – Cundinamarca y Pasto- Nariño, acerca de la patología, en este caso diabetes mellitus tipo II. Conocida anteriormente como diabetes no-insulino dependiente es una enfermedad metabólica caracterizada por altos niveles de glucosa en la sangre, no es debido a una resistencia celular a las acciones de la insulina, sino del glucagon, combinada con una deficiente secreción de insulina por el páncreas. La diabetes tipo II, es la forma más común dentro de las diabetes mellitus y la diferencia con la diabetes mellitus tipo 1 es que ésta se caracteriza por una destrucción autoinmune de las células secretoras de insulina obligando a los pacientes a depender de la administración exógena de insulina para su supervivencia.Diabetes is a chronic genetic basis that is characterized by multiple manifestations: a) a metabolic syndrome b) vascular syndrome c) neuro pathic syndrome. There are diseases that are delicate treatment, requiring continuous monitoring and a commitment to both patient and physician, one of these diseases is diabetes type II. The objective of this work is that as we Regents of Pharmacy in the ability to understand and analyze the cases presented in: Acevedo, Huila, Bogota, Cali, Facatativá - Cundinamarca and Nariño Pasto, about the disease, in this case type II diabetes mellitus. Formerly known as non-insulin dependent diabetes is a metabolic disorder characterized by high levels of glucose in the blood, is not due to cellular resistance to the actions of insulin, glucagon but, combined with poor insulin secretion by the pancreas. Type II diabetes is the more common form of diabetes mellitus inside and the difference with type 1 diabetes mellitus is that it is characterized by autoimmune destruction of insulin-secreting cells forcing patients dependent on the exogenous administration of insulin for survival

Responsabilidad Social y Ciudadanía: Una perspectiva desde la universidad y la administración pública

La importancia de los estudios sobre ciudadanía se vincula con la imperiosa necesidad de fortalecer la democracia en todos aquellos espacios donde se manifiesta, principalmente en países como México, donde la falta de credibilidad en las instituciones democráticas ha permeado a la sociedad.Los desafíos contemporáneos requieren nuevos ajustes en diversos sentidos; al interior de las organizaciones es necesario adecuar los mecanismos con que interactúan frente a la sociedad en la que se desarrollan. Es requisito indispensable que el grueso de las organizaciones sociales se vinculen de manera directa con los problemas globales y nacionales: cambio climático, guerras, exigencias democráticas, movimientos sociales, pobreza, desempleo, inestabilidades políticas etc., ello les exige que se asuman como parte del complejo social, donde sus acciones repercuten de forma directa o indirecta

Estado del arte del proyecto

El Observatorio Urbano Ambiental, nace como síntesis de los proyectos de investigación realizados entre2008 y 2014 en la Facultad de Arquitectura de la Universidad de la Costa- CUC y pretende dar continuidad a dichos proyectos y promover nuevos trabajos enmarcados en la línea del desarrollo sostenible. Se plantea como un ente que facilitará el relacionamiento y fortalecimiento de la relación Universidad, Empresa, Estado.Así mismo el OUA-UC permitirá la aplicación de herramientas y tecnologías de análisis urbano regional y ambiental en la Costa Caribe Colombiana; Pretende convertirse en un centro interdisciplinar, de intercambio de experiencias y de consulta especializada, donde, de forma periódica, se celebraran seminarios contemáticas de actualidad en el campo del Urbanismo, Desarrollo Territorial sostenible, Políticas y análisisregional

Energy Estimation of Cosmic Rays with the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) is part of the Pierre Auger Observatory and is used to detect the radio emission of cosmic-ray air showers. These observations are compared to the data of the surface detector stations of the Observatory, which provide well-calibrated information on the cosmic-ray energies and arrival directions. The response of the radio stations in the 30 to 80 MHz regime has been thoroughly calibrated to enable the reconstruction of the incoming electric field. For the latter, the energy deposit per area is determined from the radio pulses at each observer position and is interpolated using a two-dimensional function that takes into account signal asymmetries due to interference between the geomagnetic and charge-excess emission components. The spatial integral over the signal distribution gives a direct measurement of the energy transferred from the primary cosmic ray into radio emission in the AERA frequency range. We measure 15.8 MeV of radiation energy for a 1 EeV air shower arriving perpendicularly to the geomagnetic field. This radiation energy -- corrected for geometrical effects -- is used as a cosmic-ray energy estimator. Performing an absolute energy calibration against the surface-detector information, we observe that this radio-energy estimator scales quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy as expected for coherent emission. We find an energy resolution of the radio reconstruction of 22% for the data set and 17% for a high-quality subset containing only events with at least five radio stations with signal.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Measurement of the Radiation Energy in the Radio Signal of Extensive Air Showers as a Universal Estimator of Cosmic-Ray Energy

We measure the energy emitted by extensive air showers in the form of radio emission in the frequency range from 30 to 80 MHz. Exploiting the accurate energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory, we obtain a radiation energy of 15.8 \pm 0.7 (stat) \pm 6.7 (sys) MeV for cosmic rays with an energy of 1 EeV arriving perpendicularly to a geomagnetic field of 0.24 G, scaling quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy. A comparison with predictions from state-of-the-art first-principle calculations shows agreement with our measurement. The radiation energy provides direct access to the calorimetric energy in the electromagnetic cascade of extensive air showers. Comparison with our result thus allows the direct calibration of any cosmic-ray radio detector against the well-established energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Supplemental material in the ancillary file

Monetary Policy Report - July de 2021

Macroeconomic summary The Colombian economy sustained numerous shocks in the second quarter, pri¬marily related to costs and supply. The majority of these shocks were unantic¬ipated or proved more persistent than expected, interrupting the recovery in economic activity observed at the beginning of the year and pushing overall inflation above the target. Core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) increased but remained low, in line with the technical staff’s expectations. A third wave of the pandemic, which became more severe and prolonged than the previous outbreak, began in early April. This had both a high cost in terms of human life and a negative impact on Colombia's economic recovery. Between May and mid-June roadblocks and other disruptions to public order had a sig¬nificant negative effect on economic activity and inflation. The combination and magnitude of these two shocks likely led to a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) compared to the first quarter. Roadblocks also led to a significant in¬crease in food prices. The accumulated effects of global disruptions to certain value chains and increased international freight transportation prices, which since the end of 2020 have restricted supply and increased costs, also affected Colombia’s economy. The factors described above, which primarily affected the consumer price index (CPI) for goods and foods, explain to a significant degree the technical staff’s forecast errors and the increase in overall inflation above the 3% target. By contrast, increases in core inflation and in prices for regulated items were in line with the technical staff’s expectations, and can be explained largely by the elimination of various price relief measures put in place last year. An increase in perceived sovereign risk and the upward pressures that this im¬plies on international financing costs and the exchange rate were further con¬siderations. Despite significant negative shocks, economic growth in the first half of the year (9.1%) is now expected to be significantly higher than projected in the April re¬port (7.1%), a sign of a more dynamic economy that could recover more quickly than previously forecast. Diverse economic activity figures have indicated high¬er-than-expected growth since the end of 2020. This suggests that the negative effects on output from recurring waves of COVID-19 have grown weaker and less long-lasting with subsequent outbreaks. Nevertheless, the third wave of the coro¬navirus, and to an even greater degree the previously mentioned roadblocks and disruptions to public order, likely led to a decline in GDP in the second quar¬ter compared to the first. Despite this, data from the monthly economic tracking indicator (ISE) for April and May surpassed expectations, and new sector-level measures of economic activity suggest that the negative impact of the pandemic on output continues to moderate, amid reduced restrictions on mobility and im¬provements in the pace of vaccination programs. Freight transportation registers (June) and unregulated energy demand (July), among other indicators, suggest a significant recovery following the roadblocks in May. Given the above, annual GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to have been around 17.3% (previously 15.8%), explained in large part by a low basis of comparison. The technical staff revised its growth projection for 2021 upward from 6% to 7.5%. This forecast, which comes with an unusually high degree of uncertain¬ty, assumes no additional disruptions to public order and that any new waves of COVID-19 will not have significant additional negative effects on economic activity. Recovery in international demand, price levels for some of Colombia’s export com¬modities, and remittances from workers abroad have all performed better than projected in the previous report. This dynamic is expected to continue to drive recovery in the national income over the rest of the year. Continued ample international liquidity, an acceleration in vacci¬nation programs, and low interest rates can also be ex¬pected to favor economic activity. Improved performance in the second quarter, which led to an upward growth revision for all components of spending, is expected to continue, with the economy returning to 2019 production levels at the end of 2021, earlier than estimated in the April report. This forecast continues to account for the short-term effects on aggregate demand of a tax reform package along the lines of what is currently being pro-posed by the national government. Given the above, the central forecast scenario in this report projects growth in 2021 of 7.5% and in 2022 of 3.1% (Graph 1.1). In this scenar¬io, economic activity would nonetheless remain below potential. The noted improvement in these projections comes with a high degree of uncertainty. Annual inflation increased more than expected in June (3.63%) as a result of changes in food prices, while growth in core inflation (1.87%) was similar to projections. The in¬creased CPI for foods would be expected to persist for the remainder of the year, contributing to inflation remaining above the target. Overall and core inflation would be ex¬pected to return to close to 3% at the end of 2022, amid a deceleration in growth in the CPI for foods and reduced ex¬cess productive capacity. Recent increases in international freight and agricultural goods prices, as well as the live¬stock cycle and increased meat exports, have exerted up¬ward pressure on food prices, primarily in processed foods (see Box 21). In addition to these persistent factors affecting prices, national roadblocks and related disruptions to pub¬lic order in several cities throughout May and parts of June were reflected in a significant restriction of supply and an unexpected annual increase in the CPI for foods (8.52%). Inflation in regulated items (5.93%) also accelerated, due to a low basis of comparison on gasoline prices and the par¬tial lapse of relief measures on utility rates that were put in place in 2020. Inflation excluding food and regulated items recovered in line with projections to 1.87%, due to the rein¬statement of indirect taxes on certain goods and services that had been temporarily eliminated in 2020, and to up¬ward pressures exerted by prices for foods away from home (FAH), among other factors. The increase in perishable foods prices is expected to be reversed over the course of the year, assuming an absence of additional, long-lasting blockades of national roads. Increased processed food pric¬es would be expected to persist and contribute to keeping inflation above the target at the end of the year. Inflation excluding foods and regulated items is expected to contin¬ue to exhibit an upward trend, as excesses in productive ca¬pacity continue to close, and register a temporary increase in March 2022 largely due to the reinstatement of the FAH consumption tax. Given the above, overall year-end infla¬tion is expected to be 4.1% in 2021 and 3.1% in 2022 (Graph 1.2), and core inflation is expected to be 2.6% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022 (Graph 1.3). The technical staff has interpreted the overall behavior of prices in the CPI excluding food and regulated items, alongside continued unexpected increases in economic activity, as signs of more ample excess productive capaci¬ty in the economy. This would be expected to persist over the next two years, with the output gap closing at the end of that period. Increased economic growth suggests a less negative output gap than estimated last quarter. Nevertheless, the behavior of core inflation, especially in services, suggests that potential GDP has recovered to an unanticipated degree and that ample excess capacity con¬tinues, with a persistent effect on aggregate demand. La¬bor market observation supports this interpretation, with persistent high levels of unemployment and stagnation in the recovery of jobs lost as a result of the pandemic. Increased inflation can be explained largely by shocks re¬lated to costs and supply, and by the dissolution of some price relief measures put in place in 2020. The growth and inflation forecasts described above would be consistent with a less negative output gap closing more quickly across the forecast horizon compared to the projection from the April report. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding excess capacity is very high and constitutes a risk to the forecast (Graphic 1.4). The fiscal accounts outlook deteriorated, Standard and Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) and Fitch Ratings (Fitch) down¬graded Colombia’s credit rating, roadblocks and disrup¬tions to public order affected output, and the country faced a third wave of COVID-19 that was more severe and prolonged than the previous outbreak. These factors were reflected in an increased risk premium and depreciation of the peso compared to the dollar. This occurred in a favor¬able context in regard to foreign income, as international prices for oil, coffee, and other Colombian export goods in¬creased. This contributed to a recovery in the terms of trade and in the national income and mitigated upward pres¬sures on the risk premium and the exchange rate. Expected oil prices in this report are USD 68 per barrel (previous¬ly USD 61/bl) for 2021 and USD 66/bl (previously USD 60/ bl) for 2022. This increased trajectory shows convergence to oil prices below recently observed levels, as a result of increased global supply that would more than offset increased demand. As a result, the recent price increase is expected to be temporary. International financial conditions are expected to become somewhat less fa¬vorable in the current macroeconomic context, despite the improvement in foreign income due to increased demand and some higher prices for oil and other export products. Growth in foreign demand was better than expected in the previous report, with projections for 2021 and 2022 increasing from 5.2% to 6.0% and from 3.4% to 3.5%, respectively. For the year to date, figures for economic activity suggest more dynamic foreign demand than previously expected. Output recovery has been faster in the United States and China than in Latin America, as economic reactivation in the latter has been limit¬ed by outbreaks of COVID-19, restricted vaccine supplies, and a lack of fiscal space to confront the pandemic, among other factors. The positive dynamic in foreign goods trade has come amid a deterioration in value chains and a significant increase in commodities and freight prices (see Box 3). Inflation in the United States has been unexpectedly high, with observed and expected values remaining above the target, while growth forecasts have been revised upward. As a result, the beginning of a normalization in monetary policy in the U.S. could come earlier than previously projected. This report estimates that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate increase will come at the end of 2022 (before the first quarter of 2023). Colombia’s risk premium is projected to be higher than forecast in the April report, and is expected to remain on a growth trajectory given the country’s accumulation of public and external debt. This would be expected to contribute to an increase in international financing costs on the forecast horizon. An expansionary monetary policy stance continues to support favorable do¬mestic financing conditions. The interbank rate and the reference banking indi¬cator (IBR)remained consistent with the policy interest rate in the second quar¬ter. Average deposit and credit rates continued at historical lows, despite some observed increases at the end of June. The peso-denominated credit portfolio continued to decelerate in annual terms and, between March and June, growth in the household credit portfolio accelerated, primarily related to housing pur¬chases. Disbursements and recovery in the commercial credit portfolio were significant, returning to high levels observed one year ago, when businesses required significant levels of liquidity to confront the economic effects of the pandemic. Meanwhile, credit risk increased, liability provisions remained high, and some banks withdrew from the balance of their past-due portfolios. Nev¬ertheless, financial system earnings have recovered, and liquidity and solvency levels remain above regulatory minimums. Beginning with this report, a new methodology will be used to quantify and communicate the uncertainty surrounding central macroeconomic fore¬casts in the context of an active monetary policy. The new methodology, known as predictive densities (PD), will be explained in detail in Box 1. PD methodology provides probability distributions of the main forecast vari¬ables (e.g. growth, inflation) based on the balance of risks of key factors that, in the technical staff’s judgment, could affect the economy on the forecast horizon. These distributions reflect the result of possible shocks (to external variables, prices, and economic activity) that the economy could sustain and the transmission effects considering Colombia’s economic structure and anticipated monetary policy responses. As a result, PD allows for the quantification of uncertainty around the central forecast and of its bias. In this report, the PD exercise shows a downward bias for both economic growth and output gap, while the op¬posite is shown for headline inflation (Graphs 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3). The balance of risks indicates more complex mone¬tary policy dilemmas than previously expected. The most significant anticipated risk regarding external financing would be a return to less favorable conditions in a sce¬nario in which the U.S. Federal Reserve promptly raises interest rates. Such a decision could come as the result of current levels of economic growth and higher-than-ex¬pected employment generating significant inflationary pressures on that country. Uncertainty regarding Colom¬bia’s fiscal outlook and the subsequent effects on the risk premium and external financing costs represent addi¬tional considerations. The risks to economic growth are mainly downside risks, relating especially to the effects of political and fiscal uncertainty on consumption and investment decisions and the potential for additional waves of COVID-19 and the subsequent effects on eco-nomic activity. Inflation risks take into account the po¬tential for more persistent shocks associated with dis¬ruption to value chains, higher international commodity and food prices, and a slower-than-expected recovery in the national agricultural chain as a result of the recent roadblocks. These would represent upward risks primarily to food and goods prices. The main downside risk to the inflation forecast would come from an increase in rental housing prices below the central scenario projection. This would be explained by weak demand and increased sup¬ply in 2022 as a result of high observed housing sales this year. All told, the PD exercise reveals a downward bias for economic growth forecast, with 90% probability of growth between 6.1% and 9.1% for 2021 and between 0.5% and 4.1% in 2022. The output gap also exhibits a downward bias to the central forecast scenario, primarily in 2022. On the contrary, an upward bias is expected for headline inflation forecast, with 90% probability ranging between 3.7% and 4.9% in 2021 and between 2.2% and 4.7% in 2022. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in June and July the BDBR left the bench¬mark interest rate unchanged at 1.75% (Graph 1.5).Box 1. Characterizing and Communicating the Balance of Risks of Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Predictive Densities Approach for Colombia Authors: Juan Camilo Méndez-Vizcaíno, César Ánzola-Bravo, Alexander Guarín y Anderson Grajales-OlarteBox 2. Analysis of Recent Disturbances in Global Logistics Chains and their Impact on Colombian Import Markets. Authors: Aarón Garavito, Juan Diego Cortés, Stefany Andrea Moreno, Alex Fernando Pérez y Juan Esteban CarranzaBox 3. The Upward Dynamics of Food Prices. Authors: Edgar Caicedo G., Andrea Salazar D. y Jesús Daniel Sarmiento S

Study protocol for the multicentre cohorts of Zika virus infection in pregnant women, infants, and acute clinical cases in Latin America and the Caribbean: The ZIKAlliance consortium

Background: The European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 (H2020)-funded ZIKAlliance Consortium designed a multicentre study including pregnant women (PW), children (CH) and natural history (NH) cohorts. Clinical sites were selected over a wide geographic range within Latin America and the Caribbean, taking into account the dynamic course of the ZIKV epidemic. Methods: Recruitment to the PW cohort will take place in antenatal care clinics. PW will be enrolled regardless of symptoms and followed over the course of pregnancy, approximately every 4 weeks. PW will be revisited at delivery (or after miscarriage/abortion) to assess birth outcomes, including microcephaly and other congenital abnormalities according to the evolving definition of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS). After birth, children will be followed for 2 years in the CH cohort. Follow-up visits are scheduled at ages 1-3, 4-6, 12, and 24 months to assess neurocognitive and developmental milestones. In addition, a NH cohort for the characterization of symptomatic rash/fever illness was designed, including follow-up to capture persisting health problems. Blood, urine, and other biological materials will be collected, and tested for ZIKV and other relevant arboviral diseases (dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever) using RT-PCR or serological methods. A virtual, decentralized biobank will be created. Reciprocal clinical monitoring has been established between partner sites. Substudies of ZIKV seroprevalence, transmissio