A predictive model relating daily fluctuations in summer temperatures and mortality rates

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the context of climate change, an efficient alert system to prevent the risk associated with summer heat is necessary. The authors' objective was to describe the temperature-mortality relationship in France over a 29-year period and to define and validate a combination of temperature factors enabling optimum prediction of the daily fluctuations in summer mortality.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study addressed the daily mortality rates of subjects aged over 55 years, in France as a whole, from 1975 to 2003. The daily minimum and maximum temperatures consisted in the average values recorded by 97 meteorological stations. For each day, a cumulative variable for the maximum temperature over the preceding 10 days was defined.</p> <p>The mortality rate was modelled using a Poisson regression with over-dispersion and a first-order autoregressive structure and with control for long-term and within-summer seasonal trends. The lag effects of temperature were accounted for by including the preceding 5 days. A "backward" method was used to select the most significant climatic variables. The predictive performance of the model was assessed by comparing the observed and predicted daily mortality rates on a validation period (summer 2003), which was distinct from the calibration period (1975–2002) used to estimate the model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The temperature indicators explained 76% of the total over-dispersion. The greater part of the daily fluctuations in mortality was explained by the interaction between minimum and maximum temperatures, for a day <it>t </it>and the day preceding it. The prediction of mortality during extreme events was greatly improved by including the cumulative variables for maximum temperature, in interaction with the maximum temperatures. The correlation between the observed and estimated mortality ratios was 0.88 in the final model.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although France is a large country with geographic heterogeneity in both mortality and temperatures, a strong correlation between the daily fluctuations in mortality and the temperatures in summer on a national scale was observed. The model provided a satisfactory quantitative prediction of the daily mortality both for the days with usual temperatures and for the days during intense heat episodes. The results may contribute to enhancing the alert system for intense heat waves.</p

Towards the clinical implementation of pharmacogenetics in bipolar disorder.

BackgroundBipolar disorder (BD) is a psychiatric illness defined by pathological alterations between the mood states of mania and depression, causing disability, imposing healthcare costs and elevating the risk of suicide. Although effective treatments for BD exist, variability in outcomes leads to a large number of treatment failures, typically followed by a trial and error process of medication switches that can take years. Pharmacogenetic testing (PGT), by tailoring drug choice to an individual, may personalize and expedite treatment so as to identify more rapidly medications well suited to individual BD patients.DiscussionA number of associations have been made in BD between medication response phenotypes and specific genetic markers. However, to date clinical adoption of PGT has been limited, often citing questions that must be answered before it can be widely utilized. These include: What are the requirements of supporting evidence? How large is a clinically relevant effect? What degree of specificity and sensitivity are required? Does a given marker influence decision making and have clinical utility? In many cases, the answers to these questions remain unknown, and ultimately, the question of whether PGT is valid and useful must be determined empirically. Towards this aim, we have reviewed the literature and selected drug-genotype associations with the strongest evidence for utility in BD.SummaryBased upon these findings, we propose a preliminary panel for use in PGT, and a method by which the results of a PGT panel can be integrated for clinical interpretation. Finally, we argue that based on the sufficiency of accumulated evidence, PGT implementation studies are now warranted. We propose and discuss the design for a randomized clinical trial to test the use of PGT in the treatment of BD

Secretion of Hepatitis C Virus Envelope Glycoproteins Depends on Assembly of Apolipoprotein B Positive Lipoproteins

The density of circulating hepatitis C virus (HCV) particles in the blood of chronically infected patients is very heterogeneous. The very low density of some particles has been attributed to an association of the virus with apolipoprotein B (apoB) positive and triglyceride rich lipoproteins (TRL) likely resulting in hybrid lipoproteins known as lipo-viro-particles (LVP) containing the viral envelope glycoproteins E1 and E2, capsid and viral RNA. The specific infectivity of these particles has been shown to be higher than the infectivity of particles of higher density. The nature of the association of HCV particles with lipoproteins remains elusive and the role of apolipoproteins in the synthesis and assembly of the viral particles is unknown. The human intestinal Caco-2 cell line differentiates in vitro into polarized and apoB secreting cells during asymmetric culture on porous filters. By using this cell culture system, cells stably expressing E1 and E2 secreted the glycoproteins into the basal culture medium after one week of differentiation concomitantly with TRL secretion. Secreted glycoproteins were only detected in apoB containing density fractions. The E1–E2 and apoB containing particles were unique complexes bearing the envelope glycoproteins at their surface since apoB could be co-immunoprecipitated with E2-specific antibodies. Envelope protein secretion was reduced by inhibiting the lipidation of apoB with an inhibitor of the microsomal triglyceride transfer protein. HCV glycoproteins were similarly secreted in association with TRL from the human liver cell line HepG2 but not by Huh-7 and Huh-7.5 hepatoma cells that proved deficient for lipoprotein assembly. These data indicate that HCV envelope glycoproteins have the intrinsic capacity to utilize apoB synthesis and lipoprotein assembly machinery even in the absence of the other HCV proteins. A model for LVP assembly is proposed

Oxygen: A Fundamental Property Regulating Pelagic Ecosystem Structure in the Coastal Southeastern Tropical Pacific

Background: In the southeastern tropical Pacific anchovy (Engraulis ringens) and sardine (Sardinops sagax) abundance have recently fluctuated on multidecadal scales and food and temperature have been proposed as the key parameters explaining these changes. However, ecological and paleoecological studies, and the fact that anchovies and sardines are favored differently in other regions, raise questions about the role of temperature. Here we investigate the role of oxygen in structuring fish populations in the Peruvian upwelling ecosystem that has evolved over anoxic conditions and is one of the world's most productive ecosystems in terms of forage fish. This study is particularly relevant given that the distribution of oxygen in the ocean is changing with uncertain consequences. Methodology/Principal Findings: A comprehensive data set is used to show how oxygen concentration and oxycline depth affect the abundance and distribution of pelagic fish. We show that the effects of oxygen on anchovy and sardine are opposite. Anchovy flourishes under relatively low oxygen conditions while sardine avoid periods/areas with low oxygen concentration and restricted habitat. Oxygen consumption, trophic structure and habitat compression play a fundamental role in fish dynamics in this important ecosystem. Conclusions/Significance: For the ocean off Peru we suggest that a key process, the need to breathe, has been neglected previously. Inclusion of this missing piece allows the development of a comprehensive conceptual model of pelagic fish populations and change in an ocean ecosystem impacted by low oxygen. Should current trends in oxygen in the ocean continue similar effects may be evident in other coastal upwelling ecosystems

Dysregulation of Ribosome Biogenesis and Translational Capacity Is Associated with Tumor Progression of Human Breast Cancer Cells

Protein synthesis is a fundamental cell process and ribosomes - particularly through the ribosomal RNA that display ribozyme activity - are the main effectors of this process. Ribosome biogenesis is a very complex process involving transcriptional a

Bipolar multiplex families have an increased burden of common risk variants for psychiatric disorders

Multiplex families with a high prevalence of a psychiatric disorder are often examined to identify rare genetic variants with large effect sizes. In the present study, we analysed whether the risk for bipolar disorder (BD) in BD multiplex families is influenced by common genetic variants. Furthermore, we investigated whether this risk is conferred mainly by BD-specific risk variants or by variants also associated with the susceptibility to schizophrenia or major depression. In total, 395 individuals from 33 Andalusian BD multiplex families (166 BD, 78 major depressive disorder, 151 unaffected) as well as 438 subjects from an independent, BD case/control cohort (161 unrelated BD, 277 unrelated controls) were analysed. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for BD, schizophrenia (SCZ), and major depression were calculated and compared between the cohorts. Both the familial BD cases and unaffected family members had higher PRS for all three psychiatric disorders than the independent controls, with BD and SCZ being significant after correction for multiple testing, suggesting a high baseline risk for several psychiatric disorders in the families. Moreover, familial BD cases showed significantly higher BD PRS than unaffected family members and unrelated BD cases. A plausible hypothesis is that, in multiplex families with a general increase in risk for psychiatric disease, BD development is attributable to a high burden of common variants that confer a specific risk for BD. The present analyses demonstrated that common genetic risk variants for psychiatric disorders are likely to contribute to the high incidence of affective psychiatric disorders in the multiplex families. However, the PRS explained only part of the observed phenotypic variance, and rare variants might have also contributed to disease development

Probing non-standard interactions at Daya Bay

In this article we consider the presence of neutrino non-standard interactions (NSI) in the production and detection processes of reactor antineutrinos at the Daya Bay experiment. We report for the first time, the new constraints on the flavor non-universal and flavor universal charged-current NSI parameters, estimated using the currently released 621 days of Daya Bay data. New limits are placed assuming that the new physics effects are just inverse of each other in the production and detection processes. With this special choice of the NSI parameters, we observe a shift in the oscillation amplitude without distorting the L/E pattern of the oscillation probability. This shift in the depth of the oscillation dip can be caused by the NSI parameters as well as by theta(13), making it quite difficult to disentangle the NSI effects from the standard oscillations. We explore the correlations between the NSI parameters and theta(13) that may lead to significant deviations in the reported value of the reactor mixing angle with the help of iso-probability surface plots. Finally, we present the limits on electron, muon/tau, and flavor universal (FU) NSI couplings with and without considering the uncertainty in the normalization of the total event rates. Assuming a perfect knowledge of the event rates normalization, we find strong upper bounds similar to 0.1% for the electron and FU cases improving the present limits by one order of magnitude. However, for a conservative error of 5% in the total normalization, these constraints are relaxed by almost one order of magnitude

A life course approach to injury prevention: a "lens and telescope" conceptual model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although life course epidemiology is increasingly employed to conceptualize the determinants of health, the implications of this approach for strategies to reduce the burden of injuries have received little recognition to date.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The authors reviewed core injury concepts and the principles of the life course approach. Based on this understanding, a conceptual model was developed, to provide a holistic view of the mechanisms that underlie the accumulation of injury risk and their consequences over the life course.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A "lens and telescope" model is proposed that particularly draws on (a) the extended temporal dimension inherent in the life course approach, with links between exposures and outcomes that span many years, or even generations, and (b) an ecological perspective, according to which the contexts in which individuals live are critical, as are changes in those contexts over time.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>By explicitly examining longer-term, intergenerational and ecological perspectives, life course concepts can inform and strengthen traditional approaches to injury prevention and control that have a strong focus on proximal factors. The model proposed also serves as a tool to identify intervention strategies that have co-benefits for other areas of health.</p

The progressive elevation of alpha fetoprotein for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most common cause of primary liver neoplasms and is one of the main causes of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. High Alpha fetoprotein serum levels have been found in 60–70% of patients with Hepatocellular carcinoma; nevertheless, there are other causes that increase this protein. Alpha fetoprotein levels ≥200 and 400 ng/mL in patients with an identifiable liver mass by imaging techniques are diagnostic of hepatocellular carcinoma with high specificity. METHODS: We analysed the sensitivity and specificity of the progressive increase of the levels of alpha fetoprotein for the detection of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with liver cirrhosis. Seventy-four patients with cirrhosis without hepatocellular carcinoma and 193 with hepatic lesions diagnosed by biopsy and shown by image scans were included. Sensitivity and specificity of transversal determination of alpha fetoprotein ≥ 200 and 400 ng/mL and monthly progressive elevation of alpha fetoprotein were analysed. Areas under the ROC curves were compared. Positive and negative predictive values adjusted to a 5 and 10% prevalence were calculated. RESULTS: For an elevation of alpha fetoprotein ≥ 200 and 400 ng/mL the specificity is of 100% in both cases, with a sensitivity of 36.3 and 20.2%, respectively. For an alpha fetoprotein elevation rate ≥7 ng/mL/month, sensitivity was of 71.4% and specificity of 100%. The area under the ROC curve of the progressive elevation was significantly greater than that of the transversal determination of alpha fetoprotein. The positive and negative predictive values modified to a 10% prevalence are of: 98.8% and 96.92%, respectively; while for a prevalence of 5% they were of 97.4% and 98.52%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The progressive elevation of alpha fetoprotein ≥7 ng/mL/month in patients with liver cirrhosis is useful for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients that do not reach αFP levels ≥200 ng/mL. Prospective studies are required to confirm this observation