Estimating the proportion of clinically suspected cholera cases that are true Vibrio cholerae infections: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Cholera: surveillance relies on clinical diagnosis of acute watery : diarrhea. Suspected cholera case definitions have high sensitivity but low specificity, challenging our ability to characterize cholera burden and epidemiology. Our objective was to estimate the proportion of clinically suspected cholera that are true Vibrio cholerae infections and identify factors that explain variation in positivity. Methods and findings We conducted a systematic review of studies that tested ≥10 suspected cholera cases for V. cholerae O1/O139 using culture, PCR, and/or a rapid diagnostic test. We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Google Scholar for studies that sampled at least one suspected case between January 1, 2000 and April 19, 2023, to reflect contemporary patterns in V. cholerae positivity. We estimated diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity using a latent class meta-analysis. We estimated V. cholerae positivity using a random-effects meta-analysis, adjusting for test performance. We included 119 studies from 30 countries. V. cholerae positivity was lower in studies with representative sampling and in studies that set minimum ages in suspected case definitions. After adjusting for test performance, on average, 52% (95% credible interval (CrI): 24%, 80%) of suspected cases represented true V. cholerae infections. After adjusting for test performance and study methodology, the odds of a suspected case having a true infection were 5.71 (odds ratio 95% CrI: 1.53, 15.43) times higher when surveillance was initiated in response to an outbreak than in non-outbreak settings. Variation across studies was high, and a limitation of our approach was that we were unable to explain all the heterogeneity with study-level attributes, including diagnostic test used, setting, and case definitions. Conclusions In this study, we found that burden estimates based on suspected cases alone may overestimate the incidence of medically attended cholera by 2-fold. However, accounting for cases missed by traditional clinical surveillance is key to unbiased cholera : burden estimates. Given the substantial variability in positivity between settings, extrapolations from suspected to confirmed cases, which is necessary to estimate cholera incidence rates without exhaustive testing, should be based on local data

SCYX-7158, an Orally-Active Benzoxaborole for the Treatment of Stage 2 Human African Trypanosomiasis

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) is caused by infection with the parasite Trypanosoma brucei and is an important public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa. New, safe, and effective drugs are urgently needed to treat HAT, particularly stage 2 disease where the parasite infects the brain. Existing therapies for HAT have poor safety profiles, difficult treatment regimens, limited effectiveness, and a high cost of goods. Through an integrated drug discovery project, we have discovered and optimized a novel class of boron-containing small molecules, benzoxaboroles, to deliver SCYX-7158, an orally active preclinical drug candidate. SCYX-7158 cured mice infected with T. brucei, both in the blood and in the brain. Extensive pharmacokinetic characterization of SCYX-7158 in rodents and non-human primates supports the potential of this drug candidate for progression to IND-enabling studies in advance of clinical trials for stage 2 HAT

Using clustering of rankings to explain brand preferences with personality and socio-demographic variables

The primary aim of market segmentation is to identify relevant groups of consumers that can be addressed efficiently by marketing or advertising campaigns. This paper addresses the issue whether consumer groups can be identified from background variables that are not brand-related, and how much personality vs. socio-demographic variables contribute to the identification of consumer clusters. This is done by clustering aggregated preferences for 25 brands across 5 different product categories, and by relating socio-demographic and personality variables to the clusters using logistic regression and random forests over a range of different numbers of clusters. Results indicate that some personality variables contribute significantly to the identification of consumer groups in one sample. However, these results were not replicated on a second sample that was more heterogeneous in terms of socio-demographic characteristics and not representative of the brands target audience

The Impact of Human Conflict on the Genetics of Mastomys natalensis and Lassa Virus in West Africa

Environmental changes have been shown to play an important role in the emergence of new human diseases of zoonotic origin. The contribution of social factors to their spread, especially conflicts followed by mass movement of populations, has not been extensively investigated. Here we reveal the effects of civil war on the phylogeography of a zoonotic emerging infectious disease by concomitantly studying the population structure, evolution and demography of Lassa virus and its natural reservoir, the rodent Mastomys natalensis, in Guinea, West Africa. Analysis of nucleoprotein gene sequences enabled us to reconstruct the evolutionary history of Lassa virus, which appeared 750 to 900 years ago in Nigeria and only recently spread across western Africa (170 years ago). Bayesian demographic inferences revealed that both the host and the virus populations have gone recently through severe genetic bottlenecks. The timing of these events matches civil war-related mass movements of refugees and accompanying environmental degradation. Forest and habitat destruction and human predation of the natural reservoir are likely explanations for the sharp decline observed in the rodent populations, the consequent virus population decline, and the coincident increased incidence of Lassa fever in these regions. Interestingly, we were also able to detect a similar pattern in Nigeria coinciding with the Biafra war. Our findings show that anthropogenic factors may profoundly impact the population genetics of a virus and its reservoir within the context of an emerging infectious disease

Overview of the first Wendelstein 7-X long pulse campaign with fully water-cooled plasma facing components

after a long device enhancement phase, scientific operation resumed in 2022. The main new device components are the water cooling of all plasma facing components and the new water-cooled high heat flux divertor units. Water cooling allowed for the first long-pulse operation campaign. A maximum discharge length of 8 min was achieved with a total heating energy of 1.3 GJ. Safe divertor operation was demonstrated in attached and detached mode. Stable detachment is readily achieved in some magnetic configurations but requires impurity seeding in configurations with small magnetic pitch angle within the edge islands. Progress was made in the characterization of transport mechanisms across edge magnetic islands: Measurement of the potential distribution and flow pattern reveals that the islands are associated with a strong poloidal drift, which leads to rapid convection of energy and particles from the last closed flux surface into the scrape-off layer. Using the upgraded plasma heating systems, advanced heating scenarios were developed, which provide improved energy confinement comparable to the scenario, in which the record triple product for stellarators was achieved in the previous operation campaign. However, a magnetic configuration-dependent critical heating power limit of the electron cyclotron resonance heating was observed. Exceeding the respective power limit leads to a degradation of the confinement

Overview of the first Wendelstein 7-X long pulse campaign with fully water-cooled plasma facing components

After a long device enhancement phase, scientific operation resumed in 2022. The main new device components are the water cooling of all plasma facing components and the new water-cooled high heat flux divertor units. Water cooling allowed for the first long-pulse operation campaign. A maximum discharge length of 8 min was achieved with a total heating energy of 1.3 GJ. Safe divertor operation was demonstrated in attached and detached mode. Stable detachment is readily achieved in some magnetic configurations but requires impurity seeding in configurations with small magnetic pitch angle within the edge islands. Progress was made in the characterization of transport mechanisms across edge magnetic islands: Measurement of the potential distribution and flow pattern reveals that the islands are associated with a strong poloidal drift, which leads to rapid convection of energy and particles from the last closed flux surface into the scrape-off layer. Using the upgraded plasma heating systems, advanced heating scenarios were developed, which provide improved energy confinement comparable to the scenario, in which the record triple product for stellarators was achieved in the previous operation campaign. However, a magnetic configuration-dependent critical heating power limit of the electron cyclotron resonance heating was observed. Exceeding the respective power limit leads to a degradation of the confinement

Measurements of radial neutral density profiles from Balmer-α emission in Wendelstein 7-X

Radial neutral density profiles are estimated from measurements of passive Hα emission in the Wendelstein 7-X stellarator. To parametrize the generally three-dimensional distribution with a low number of degrees of freedom, the neutral density is reduced to a flux surface quantity. Accounting for emission from excitation and recombination processes, neutral density profiles are derived independently for each of the available lines of sight. Density profiles obtained from the different viewing geometries are found to vary within one order of magnitude. Toroidally oriented lines of sight predict systematically lower neutral densities when compared to poloidally oriented ones. This discrepancy is attributed to the simplifications inherent in the imposed model and significant differences in integration volumes across the viewing geometries. In line with expectations, obtained neutral densities are found to decrease with increasing plasma density. Key restrictions of the model include the reduction of the neutral density to a flux surface quantity, uncertainties in the plasma profiles and instrument function, and line integration effects outside the last closed flux surface

Genome-wide association study identifies human genetic variants associated with fatal outcome from Lassa fever

Infection with Lassa virus (LASV) can cause Lassa fever, a haemorrhagic illness with an estimated fatality rate of 29.7%, but causes no or mild symptoms in many individuals. Here, to investigate whether human genetic variation underlies the heterogeneity of LASV infection, we carried out genome-wide association studies (GWAS) as well as seroprevalence surveys, human leukocyte antigen typing and high-throughput variant functional characterization assays. We analysed Lassa fever susceptibility and fatal outcomes in 533 cases of Lassa fever and 1,986 population controls recruited over a 7 year period in Nigeria and Sierra Leone. We detected genome-wide significant variant associations with Lassa fever fatal outcomes near GRM7 and LIF in the Nigerian cohort. We also show that a haplotype bearing signatures of positive selection and overlapping LARGE1, a required LASV entry factor, is associated with decreased risk of Lassa fever in the Nigerian cohort but not in the Sierra Leone cohort. Overall, we identified variants and genes that may impact the risk of severe Lassa fever, demonstrating how GWAS can provide insight into viral pathogenesis