Different Roads to Liberalisation: Scenarios for a Moroccan Case Study of the Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreements. CEPS ENARPRI Working Papers No. 9, 1 October 2004

Although the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) in spirit aims at fostering economic growth and stability at the southern periphery of the EU, the contents of the trade agreements reflect the more narrow economic interests of specific, southern EU member states (dell’Aquila & Kuiper, 2003). Key characteristics of the Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreements (EMAAs) are an asymmetric focus on liberalising trade in the manufactured goods of the MPCs, while maintaining trade barriers on agricultural products. Several studies have quantified the expected impact of the proposed Mediterranean free trade area. A review of recent studies indicated that several characteristic features of the MPCs and the EMAAs are missing in existing analyses (Kuiper, 2004). This paper therefore focuses on identifying scenarios for further research that reflect key policy and research issues identified in an earlier study (dell’Aquila and Kuiper, 2003), while accounting for the gaps in existing analyses as identified in Kuiper (2004). Although limited to analysing the specific case of Morocco, the scenarios defined in this paper refer to issues that are relevant for all Mediterranean partner countries

Understanding and attributing the Euro‐Russian summer blocking signatures

In this work, we focus on summer blocking events over the Euro-Russian region related with heat waves. An analysis of the main characteristics of summer Euro-Russian blocking events in global Reanalysis as well as in the 20th century CLIVAR atmospheric simulations is carried out to assess whether anthropogenic forcing might have affected the blocking events occurrence and the associated heat waves strength in recent decades. Over the Euro-Russian region, blocking episodes, associated to warm events over Northern and Central Europe, become significantly longer in the second half of the century when the anthropogenic forcing is included in the simulations. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society

Accessing extremes of mid-latitudinal wave activity: methodology and application

A statistical methodology is proposed and tested for the analysis of extreme values of atmospheric wave activity at mid-latitudes. The adopted methods are the classical block-maximum and peak over threshold, respectively based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Time-series of the ‘Wave Activity Index’ (WAI) and the ‘Baroclinic Activity Index’ (BAI) are computed from simulations of the General Circulation Model ECHAM4.6, which is run under perpetual January conditions. Both the GEV and the GPD analyses indicate that the extremes ofWAI and BAI areWeibull distributed, this corresponds to distributions with an upper bound. However, a remarkably large variability is found in the tails of such distributions; distinct simulations carried out under the same experimental setup provide sensibly different estimates of the 200-yr WAI return level. The consequences of this phenomenon in applications of the methodology to climate change studies are discussed. The atmospheric configurations characteristic of the maxima and minima of WAI and BAI are also examined

On the mid-latitude tropopause height and the orographic-baroclinic adjustment theory

In the extratropics the analysis of the time–space structure of the dynamical tropopause shows a marked signature of nonpropagating, low-frequency (time-scale >10 d), ultra-long (zonal wavenumber <5) waves. This suggests the extension of theories relating the tropopause height to the baroclinic adjustment to the orographic-baroclinic disturbances, generally operating in the low-frequency domain. Such an extension is here proposed. By analysing Eady modes in a Boussinesq atmosphere, it has been found that the form-drag instability must be accounted for in an extended theory of baroclinic neutralization. The produced unstable standing waves carry a poleward large amount of heat at planetary scale for most of the external parameter settings and their spatial structure strongly resembles the observed winter mid-latitude eddy fields. Furthermore, we show how a simple representation of the stratosphere affects the tropopause neutralization requirements

Formula for a baroclinic adjustment theory of climate

Recently, a theory relating baroclinic neutrality and midlatitudes tropopause height has beenproposed. However, GCM results have shown that the dependence of the theory on externalparameters is not consistent with that displayed by these numerical experiments. In the presentpaper we suggest an analytic formula for baroclinic adjustment to the neutrality of Eady wavesthrough tropopause modification. This formula extends considerably the abovementionedtheory by taking into account both a simple representation of the stratosphere and the topography.These modifications alter the tropopause condition for a baroclinically neutral stateand its sensitivity to the external parameters. In particular, the topography introduces a dependenceon the tropospheric vertical wind shear of the neutrality condition. This feature is notpresent in other models that assume a background state with a zero potential vorticity gradientin the troposphere.We show, furthermore, that the modified neutrality condition has sensitivitiesthat may resemble those displayed by GCM simulations, with respect to the parameters definingthe background flow.DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.2002.00296.

Monitoring climate related risk and opportunities for the wine sector: The MED-GOLD pilot service

MED-GOLD was a 54-months research and innovation project, whose main aim was to co-develop climate services for three staples of the Mediterranean food system, namely grapes, olives and durum wheat. This paper describes the methodology adopted for the co-development of the pilot climate service for the wine sector, focusing on the Douro Wine Region in northern Portugal. In the first step, the MED-GOLD industrial partner SOGRAPE identified key decisions and users’ needs for the wine sector in the Douro region by involving managers from their own vineyards in that region. From this information, the relevant bioclimatic indicators (and associated essential climate variables) were selected. Afterwards, two compound risk indices, the Sanitary and Heat Risk indices, were introduced as a combination of some of the aforementioned bioclimatic indicators. This methodological work was validated against the empirical climate characterization for the region of interest, of several ‘bad’ and ‘good’ years chosen by users according to their recollections of grape and wine production outcomes, namely quality and yields. In this paper, the overall strategy for selection of these years is presented. The components of the service based on historical climate, seasonal predictions and longer-term climate projections are described along with the visual interface developed: the MED-GOLD Dashboard, an interactive tool that displays detailed historical climate data, seasonal predictions and climate projections. The Dashboard consists of an ICT platform with a map-based user-focused front end to aid easy access to and manipulation of the data. The Dashboard was iteratively co-designed with the users to ensure their needs were met.The authors acknowledge project MED-GOLD (Turning climate-related information into added value for traditional MEDiterranean Grape, Olive and Durum Wheat food systems, agreement no. 776467) funded by the European Union. Raul Marcos-Matamoros is a Serra Húnter fellow.Peer Reviewed"Article signat per 17 autors/es: Alessandro Dell'Aquila , António Graça, Marta Teixeira, Natacha Fontes, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Raul Marcos-Matamoros, Chihchung Chou, Marta Terrado, Christos Giannakopoulos, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Federico Caboni, Riccardo Locci, Martina Nanu, Sara Porru, Giulia Argiola, Marta Bruno Soares, Michael Sanderson"Postprint (published version

Does the subtropical jet catalyze the mid-latitude atmospheric regimes?

Understanding the atmospheric low-frequency variability is of crucial importance in fields such as climate studies, climate change detection, and extended-range weather forecast. The Northern Hemisphere climate features the planetary waves as a relevant ingredient of the atmospheric variability. Several observations and theoretical arguments seem to support the idea that winter planetary waves indicator obey a non-Gaussian statistics and may present a multimodal probability density function, thus characterizing the low-frequency portion of the climate system. We show that the upper tropospheric jet strength is a critical parameter in determining whether the planetary waves indicator exhibits a uni- or bimodal behavior, and we determine the relevant threshold value of the jet. These results are obtained by considering the data of the NCEP-NCAR and ECMWF reanalyses for the overlapping period. Our results agree with the non-linear orographic theory, which explains the statistical non-normality of the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and its possible bimodality.Comment: Final version of the pape

A MSFD complementary approach for the assessment of pressures, knowledge and data gaps in Southern European Seas : the PERSEUS experience

PERSEUS project aims to identify the most relevant pressures exerted on the ecosystems of the Southern European Seas (SES), highlighting knowledge and data gaps that endanger the achievement of SES Good Environmental Status (GES) as mandated by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). A complementary approach has been adopted, by a meta-analysis of existing literature on pressure/impact/knowledge gaps summarized in tables related to the MSFD descriptors, discriminating open waters from coastal areas. A comparative assessment of the Initial Assessments (IAs) for five SES countries has been also independently performed. The comparison between meta-analysis results and IAs shows similarities for coastal areas only. Major knowledge gaps have been detected for the biodiversity, marine food web, marine litter and underwater noise descriptors. The meta-analysis also allowed the identification of additional research themes targeting research topics that are requested to the achievement of GES. 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license.peer-reviewe