Invasive and Exotic Species in the Restoration of Stochastic Agricultural Lands in Ethiopia

Feeding inexorably increasing population is among the challenges confronting mankind. Marginal lands including mountainous and sloppy areas have been converted to agricultural land. The highland parts of Ethiopia (43% of the country’s total size) have been highly degraded. About 4 % had reached a point of no return. This has diminished food crop production capacity of the country. In addition, there is not extra marginal or forest lands to be converted to farmland as before. Hence, restoration of agricultural land is an urgent matter. Restoration increases agricultural system stability. Restoration can be done in various ways such as area closure (in areas with relatively large landholding size), erosion protection using physical structure and restoration using tree planting or combination of two or more of the interventions. But rural Ethiopia cannot afford to put land aside for restoration due to scarcity of farmland. A key question, then, is how to successfully and quickly restore the degraded landscapes in the country. This review work, therefore, analyzes the merit and demerit of exotic and invasive plant species in the restoration of agricultural land in Ethiopia.  Most Exotic species in Ethiopia are providing various socio-economic services. On the other hand, few are highly competitive and deny resources for native trees as well as for crops. Some of these invasive species have allelopathic characteristics and ooze inhibiting chemicals. They quickly colonize the area and deny the space for crops. The invasive species also lower the water table and also adversely affect the livestock sector however that agriculture and livestock sectors are complementary activities in Ethiopia. Absence of well-developed management techniques exacerbated the downside of invasive species. Many studies invigorate adverse impact of invasive species. The invasive plants use the opportunity of high disturbance of agricultural lands to outcompete with crops or co-existing native flora. Unless it is the last option using invasive species for restoration of agricultural land is not recommended. Regarding the exotic species such as Eucalyptus spp, Cuppressus lustanica, Gravillia robusta, Pinus radiata, there is mixed evidence on their role on restoration of agricultural land. The widely held negativity view of exotic plant species seems not right. The performance of exotic trees on the restoration of agricultural land varies from species to species. Some leguminous exotic species has a positive role in increasing soil nitrogen, moisture content, total SOC, physical property of soil, etc. Few such as eucalyptuses have over competing with crops and with co-existing native flora for the available water, nutrients, light, etc. Species such as Cuppressus lustanica has very high evapo-transpiration during wet season and suppress the growth of understory.  As compared to the native trees exotic species have less efficiency on the restoration of agricultural lands. This does not mean that all native plants have good performance than exotic plants. In general, before embarking to agricultural land restoration species selection that exactly fits the required purpose must be done. Keywords: Restoration, invasive species, Exotic, Agricultural lan

Risky sexual behavior and associated factors among preparatory school students in Arsi Negelle Town Oromia, Ethiopia

Risky sexual behavior remains the major public concern commonly affecting youths. These behaviors lead to undesirable health outcomes including sexually transmitted infections, unplanned pregnancy and abortion for female. This study was intended to assess risky sexual behavior and associated factors among preparatory school students in Arsi Negelle Town. Institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 300 preparatory school students. Data was collected using a structured and pre-tested questionnaire. Bivariate and multivariable analysis was conducted to identify the association between variables. Statistical significance was declared at p<0.05. The prevalence of risky sexual behavior was, 32. % (95% CI: 24.3, 40.9). It was significantly associated with students grade level (AOR: 5.77; 95% CI: 1.49, 22.28), having no discussion on sexual and reproductive health (AOR: 11.28; 95% CI: 1.8, 77.49), poor knowledge on HIV/AIDS (AOR: 4.86, 95% CI: 1.38, 17.11), not watching porn movies (AOR: 0.01; 95% CI: 0.001, 0.26), having pocket money (AOR: 0.10; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.39) and having peer influence (AOR: 0.07; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.28). Significant number of students engaged in at least one risky sexual behavior. The behavior was commonly seen among students with poor knowledge about HIV, no discussion on sexual and reproductive health, lower grade level, having pocket money, having peer influence and watching pornographic movies

A cell-level dynamical model for malaria parasite infection with antimalarial drug treatment

Malaria is an infectious disease caused by intracellular parasites of the genus Plasmodium. It is a major health problem around the world. In this study, a cell-level mathematical model of malaria parasites with antimalarial drug treatments is formulated and analyzed. The model consists of seven compartments for cell populations. We analyzed the qualitative behavior of the model using various techniques. The stability analysis of the parasite-free equilibrium is obtained, whereas it is locally and globally stable if the basic reproduction number R0<1. The parasite persistence equilibrium point exists, and it is locally asymptotically stable if R0>1. The sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number is computed, and the results show that the infection rate of the erythrocyte by merozoites, the average number of merozoites per ruptured infected erythrocyte cells, the natural death rate of merozoites, and the requirement rate of the uninfected erythrocyte are the most influential parameters within-host dynamics of malaria infection. Different numerical simulations are performed to supplement our analytical findings. The effect of primary tissue schizontocides, blood schizontocides, and gametocytocides on infected hepatocytes, infected erythrocytes, and gametocytes have been investigated, respectively. Finally, some counterplots are presented in order to investigate the impact of parameters on the basic reproduction number. The in-host basic reproduction number decreases as the antimalarial treatment administration increases. Therefore, increasing antimalarial treatment administration is the best way to mitigate the in-host malaria infection

The effect of single low-dose primaquine treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria on haemoglobin levels in Ethiopia: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To interrupt residual malaria transmission and achieve successful elimination of Plasmodium falciparum in low-transmission settings, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the administration of a single dose of 0.25 mg/kg (or 15 mg/kg for adults) primaquine (PQ) combined with artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), without glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) testing. However, due to the risk of haemolysis in patients with G6PD deficiency (G6PDd), PQ use is uncommon. Thus, this study aimed to assess the safety of a single low dose of PQ administered to patients with G6PD deficiency. METHODS: An observational cohort study was conducted with patients treated for uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria with either single-dose PQ (0.25 mg/kg) (SLD PQ) + ACT or ACT alone. Microscopy-confirmed uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria patients visiting public health facilities in Arjo Didessa, Southwest Ethiopia, were enrolled in the study from September 2019 to November 2022. Patients with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria were followed up for 28 days through clinical and laboratory diagnosis, such as measurements of G6PD levels and haemoglobin (Hb) concentrations. G6PD levels were measured by a quantiative CareSTART™ POCT S1 biosensor machine. Patient interviews were also conducted, and the type and frequency of clinical complaints were recorded. Hb data were taken on days (D) 7, 14, 21, and 28 following treatment with SLD-PQ + ACT or ACT alone. RESULTS: A total of 249 patients with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria were enrolled in this study. Of these, 83 (33.3%) patients received ACT alone, and 166 (66.7%) received ACT combined with SLD-PQ treatment. The median age of the patients was 20 (IQR 28-15) years. G6PD deficiency was found in 17 (6.8%) patients, 14 males and 3 females. There were 6 (7.2%) and 11 (6.6%) phenotypic G6PD-deficient patients in the ACT alone and ACT + SLD-PQ arms, respectively. The mean Hb levels in patients treated with ACT + SLD-PQ were reduced by an average of 0.45 g/dl (95% CI = 0.39 to 0.52) in the posttreatment phase (D7) compared to a reduction of 0.30 g/dl (95% CI = 0.14 to - 0.47) in patients treated with ACT alone (P = 0.157). A greater mean Hb reduction was observed on day 7 in the G6PDd ACT + SLD-PQ group (- 0.60 g/dL) than in the G6PDd ACT alone group (- 0.48 g/dL); however, there was no statistically significant difference (P = 0.465). Overall, D14 losses were 0.10 g/dl (95% CI = - 0.00 to 0.20) and 0.05 g/dl (95% CI = - 0.123 to 0.22) in patients with and without SLD-PQ, respectively (P = 0.412). CONCLUSIONS: This studys findings indicate that using SLD-PQ in combination with ACT is safe for uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria regardless of the patients G6PD status in Ethiopian settings. Caution should be taken in extrapolating this finding in other settings with diverse G6DP phenotypes

Molecular epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria among Duffy-positive and Duffy-negative populations in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: Malaria is the most prevalent communicable disease in Ethiopia, with 75% of the country’s landmass classified as endemic for malaria. Accurate information on the distribution and clinical prevalence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in endemic areas, as well as in Duffy-negative populations, is essential to develop integrated control strategies. METHODS: A total of 390 and 416 community and clinical samples, respectively, representing different localities and age groups across Ethiopia were examined. Malaria prevalence was estimated using nested PCR of the 18S rRNA region. Parasite gene copy number was measured by quantitative real-time PCR and compared between symptomatic and asymptomatic samples, as well as between children/adolescents and adults from the local community. An approximately 500-bp segment of the human DARC gene was amplified and sequenced to identify Duffy genotype at the -33rd nucleotide position for all the clinical and community samples. RESULTS: Plasmodium vivax prevalence was higher in the south while P. falciparum was higher in the north. The prevalence of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria is the highest in children compared to adolescents and adults. Four P. vivax infections were detected among the Duffy-negative samples. Samples from asymptomatic individuals show a significantly lower parasite gene copy number than those from symptomatic infections for P. vivax and P. falciparum. CONCLUSIONS: Geographical and age differences influence the distribution of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in Ethiopia. These findings offer evidence-based guidelines in targeting malaria control efforts in the country. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0596-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Entomological and Anthropological Factors Contributing to Persistent Malaria Transmission in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Cameroon

Introduction In order to improve our understanding of the fundamental limits of core interventions and guide efforts based on prioritization and identification of effective/novel interventions with great potentials to interrupt persistent malaria transmission in the context of high vector control coverage, the drivers of persistent disease transmission were investigated in three eco-epidemiological settings; forested areas in Cameroon, coastal area in Kenya and highland areas in Ethiopia. Methods Mosquitoes were sampled in three eco-epidemiological settings using different entomological sampling techniques and analysed for Plasmodium infection status and blood meal origin in blood-fed specimens. Human behavioural surveys were conducted to assess the knowledge and attitude of the population on malaria and preventive measures, their night activities, and sleeping pattern. The parasitological analysis was conducted to determine the prevalence of Plasmodium infection in the population using rapid diagnostic tests. Results Despite the diversity in the mosquito fauna, their biting behaviour was found to be closely associated to human behaviour in the three settings. People in Kenya and Ethiopia were found to be more exposed to mosquito bites during the early hours of the evening (18-21h) while it was in the early morning (4-6 am) in Cameroon. Malaria transmission was high in Cameroon compared to Kenya and Ethiopia with over 50% of the infected bites recorded outdoors. The non-users of LLINs were 2.5 to 3 times more likely to be exposed to the risk of acquiring malaria compared to LLINs users. Malaria prevalence was high (42%) in Cameroon, and more than half of the households visited had at least one individual infected with Plasmodium parasites. Conclusions The study suggests high outdoor malaria transmission occurring in the three sites with however different determinants driving residual malaria transmission in these areas

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury