Can Observers Predict Trustworthiness?

We investigate whether experimental subjects can predict behavior in a prisoner's dilemma played on a TV show. Subjects report probabilistic beliefs that a player cooperates, before and after the players communicate. Subjects correctly predict that women and players who make a voluntary promise are more likely to cooperate. They are able to distinguish truth from lies when a player is asked about her intentions by the host. Subjects are to some extent able to predict behavior; their beliefs are 7~percentage points higher for cooperators than for defectors. We also study their Bayesian updating. Beliefs do not satisfy the martingale property and display mean reversion

Evidence of increased axillary blood flow velocity without increased handgrip strength and endurance in persons with a fibromuscular axillary arch

Background: The purpose of this in vivo study was to compare axillary artery blood flow velocity, and maximal handgrip strength and endurance performance in young subjects with and without an axillary arch (AA). Materials and methods: One hundred and fifty-six young adults were screened for the presence of an AA on their dominant arm side. After physical examination subjects were checked using diagnostic echography for the presence of an AA. Sixteen subjects with an AA and 15 without an AA had their axillary artery peak systolic velocity quantified in 3 different arm positions using Doppler ultrasound. Maximal handgrip strength and endurance performance was quantified in the same positions using a functional rehabilitation system. Results: Mean peak systolic velocity was significantly higher in the AA group compared to controls in abduction/external rotation of the arm during muscle relaxation (p = 0.003) and contraction (p = 0.01). No significant differences between groups were found for maximal handgrip strength and endurance performance. Conclusions: This study provides evidence for a transient axillary artery compression by the AA in a throwing position. This is not reinforced by additional contraction of the shoulder muscles along with the AA. Axillary artery compression does not influence maximal handgrip strength and endurance performance in symptom-free young adults

Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73431/1/0022-1082.00077.pd

Sexual stage-specific expression of a third calcium-dependent protein kinase from Plasmodium falciparum.

A third calcium-dependent protein kinase (CDPK) gene has been isolated from the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum by vectorette technology. The gene consists of five exons and four introns. The open reading frame resulting from removal of the four introns encodes a protein of 562 amino acid residues with a predicted molecular mass of 65.3 kDa. The encoded protein, termed PfCDPK3, consists of four distinct domains characteristic of a member of the CDPK family and displays the highest homology (46% identity and 69% similarity) to PfCDPK2, the second CDPK of P. falciparum. The N-terminal variable domain is rich in serine/threonine and lysine and contains multiple consensus phosphorylation sites for a range of protein kinases. The catalytic domain possesses all conserved motifs of the protein kinase family except for the highly conserved glutamic acid residue in subdomain VIII, which is replaced by a glutamine residue. The sequence of the junction domain comprising 31 amino acid residues is less conserved. The calmodulin-like regulatory domain contains four EF-hand calcium-binding motifs, each consisting of a loop of 12 amino acid residues which is flanked by two alpha-helices. Southern blotting of genomic DNA digests showed that the Pfcdpk3 gene is present as a single copy per haploid genome. A 2900 nucleotide transcript of this gene is expressed specifically in the sexual erythrocytic stage, indicating that PfCDPK3 is involved in sexual stage-specific events. It is proposed that PfCDPK3 may serve as a link between calcium and gametogenesis of P. falciparum

Contracting on litigation

Two risk‐averse litigants with different subjective beliefs negotiate in the shadow of a pending trial. Through contingent contracts, the litigants can mitigate risk and/or speculate on the trial outcome. Contingent contracting decreases the settlement rate and increases the volume and costs of litigation. These contingent contracts mimic the services provided by third‐party investors, including litigation funders and insurance companies. The litigants (weakly) prefer to contract with risk‐neutral third parties when the capital market is transaction‐cost free. However, contracting with third parties further decreases the settlement rate, increases the costs of litigation, and may increase the aggregate cost of risk bearing.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149242/1/rand12274.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149242/2/rand12274_am.pd

Inter-comparison of salt effect correction for δ 18 O and δ 2 H measurements in seawater by CRDS and IRMS using the gas-H 2 O equilibration method

The isotope composition of seawater is an efficient method for detecting mixing between water masses. To measure long term or large scale hydrological processes at the ocean surface, it is necessary to be able to precisely compare datasets produced by different laboratories. The oxygen and hydrogen isotope (δ18O and δ2H) composition of marine waters can be measured using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) and near-infrared laser absorption spectroscopy (LS) techniques. The IRMS and equilibration method is thought to provide results on the activity scale, while LS provides results on the concentration scale. However, the effect of dissolved seawater salts on the measurement is not sufficiently assessed and seems sometimes contradictory in the literature. For this purpose, we made artificial seawater and a pure NaCl solution from a freshwater of known isotope composition. The solutions were measured by four different laboratories allowing us to compare the two techniques. We show that minor corrections are necessary to correct seawater measurements for the salt effect and report them on the concentration scale. Interestingly, seawater measurements using LS (type Picarro) coupled to a liner are not on the concentration scale and require a correction of ~ 0.09‰ for δ18O, while the correction is relatively less significant for δ2H (~ 0.13‰). Moreover, we found for IRMS measurements that the salt effect can differ between different laboratories but seems reproducible for a given laboratory. A natural sea water sample was then analyzed by the different laboratories participating in the study. We found that applying the corrections increases the reproducibility of the isotope measurement significantly, with inter-laboratory standard deviation decreasing from 0.06 to 0.02‰ and 0.55 to 0.23‰ for δ18O and δ2H, respectively. Thus, comparing sea water datasets produced in different laboratories requires that each laboratory carries out its own calibration with artificial seawater and presents measurements on the concentration scale

Is investor sentiment contagious? International sentiment and UK equity returns

This paper contributes to a growing body of literature studying investor sentiment. Separate sentiment measures for UK investors and UK institutional investors are constructed from commonly cited sentiment indicators using the first principle component method. We then examine if the sentiment measures can help predict UK equity returns, distinguishing between “turbulent” and “tranquil” periods in the financial markets. We find that sentiment tends to be a more important determinant of returns in the run-up to a crisis than at other times. We also examine if US investor sentiment can help predict UK equity returns, and find that US investor sentiment is highly significant in explaining the UK equity returns

The impact of news on measures of undiversifiable risk: evidence from the UK stock market

Using UK equity index data, this paper considers the impact of news on time varying measures of beta, the usual measure of undiversifiable risk. The empirical model implies that beta depends on news about the market and news about the sector. The asymmetric response of beta to news about the market is consistent across all sectors considered. Recent research is divided as to whether abnormalities in equity returns arise from changes in expected returns in an efficient market or over-reactions to new information. The evidence suggests that such abnormalities may be due to changes in expected returns caused by time-variation and asymmetry in beta