Preschool children’s notations for denoting ordinal position and quantity

The research is funded by The Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2019-330), in the UK

A framework for evaluating instructional design models resulting in a model for designing and developing computer based learning tools with GIS technologies

With the increasing pressures and concerns in education regarding capability, lifelong learning, higher order cognitive skills, transdisciplinary education and so on, educators are seeking fresh ways to teach and new tools to support that teaching. In South Africa, Outcomes Based Education (OBE) has identified critical outcomes (skills) across all subject areas such as problem solving, teamwork, fostering critical thinking etc. as a way of responding to these pressures and concerns. But OBE has been criticised for lacking the necessary tools to develop these critical skills and to promote cross-discipline learning. One innovative way of offering transformative teaching, instruction and learning that may foster the development of these critical skills, particularly those concerned with critical thinking, is by using geographic information systems (GIS) technologies. The scope for using these technologies in secondary education is now being realised for teaching the more generic, cross-discipline skills described whereby students are learning not only about GIS but also with GIS. This realisation provides the opportunity to create flexible, computer-based learning materials that are rooted in authentic, real-world contexts, which aim to enhance the cognitive skills of the students. If these technologies can be used in an innovative way to develop critical outcomes and skills, a model needs to be defined to aid the design and development of learning materials using these technologies for use in schools. The primary aim of this study has been to develop such a model; a model which emphasises the development of real-world learning materials that develop higher-order thinking skills in learners. Another key product of this study is the submission of a comprehensive yet flexible framework for evaluating instructional design models found in the educational literature in order to determine if these design models can be used to develop learning materials forparticular contexts

The dialectical relationship between theory and practice in the design of an after-school mathematics club

In this article we describe the design process for an after-school Grade 3 mathematics club, based on our experiences running a pilot club in a 2011 research and development project. Working from a sociocultural perspective, we show the progression from an initial multifaceted design to a much simpler, more learner-centred design that speaks directly to our research foci and one which is based on empirical evidence. Our experiences have brought to light the entwined and dialectical nature of the data collection and design processes and the significance of the post-club reflection sessions as a powerful data collection instrument for planning the club sessions. Furthermore, we identify and shape the zone of proximal development for the purposes of our club as the critical design concept for each club session for each learner

Fingerprints of changes in annual and seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 models over land and ocean

By comparing annual and seasonal changes in precipitation over land and ocean since 1950 simulated by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) climate models in which natural and anthropogenic forcings have been included, we find that clear global-scale and regional-scale changes due to human influence are expected to have occurred over both land and ocean. These include moistening over northern high latitude land and ocean throughout all seasons and over the northern subtropical oceans during boreal winter. However we show that this signal of human influence is less distinct when considered over the relatively small area of land for which there are adequate observations to make assessments of multi-decadal scale trends. These results imply that extensive and significant changes in precipitation over the land and ocean may have already happened, even though, inadequacies in observations in some parts of the world make it difficult to identify conclusively such a human fingerprint on the global water cycle. In some regions and seasons, due to aliasing of different kinds of variability as a result of sub sampling by the sparse and changing observational coverage, observed trends appear to have been increased, underscoring the difficulties of interpreting the apparent magnitude of observed changes in precipitation

Examining the nature of learning within an afterschool mathematics club : a case study of four learners

This study examined the nature of learning within an afterschool mathematics club established by the South African Numeracy Chair project. This study sought to establish what sort of progress in mathematical learning occurred in a grade 3 afterschool maths club, using assessment instruments associated with the Learning Framework in Number. The study also sought to understand the nature and effects of mentor mediation in the maths club, using Vygotsky’s notion of the Zone of Proximal Development (ZPD) together with the notion and practice of scaffolding. This study was interpretive in nature drawing on qualitative methods with some elements of quantification in relation to learners’ progression. The club consists of 10 learners of mixed ability (5 girls and 5 boys) at a township school in Graham’s town, South Africa. Learners in this case study were selected through purposive sampling. As part of the data collection strategies, the learners were interviewed twice in terms of their numeracy proficiency. The assessment interview results revealed that, in terms of proficiency in early arithmetical learning, all four learners showed progress after spending four months in an afterschool maths club. This study also recommended Wright et al.’s (2006) LFIN framework to be used in assessing learners’ progress in mathematics, as it could inform the refinement of instructional design within the school curriculum and teachers’ education in the Namibian context

Effects of an e-health intervention 'iSupport' for reducing distress of dementia carers:protocol for a randomised controlled trial and feasibility study

Introduction: In the UK, National Health Service (NHS) guidelines recommend that informal carers of people living with dementia should be offered training to help them develop care skills and manage their own physical and mental health. The WHO recommends access to affordable, proven, well-designed, online technologies for education, skills training and support for dementia carers. In response to these recommendations, this multisite randomised controlled trial (RCT) is the first study in the UK to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of an online support programme developed by the WHO called 'iSupport for dementia carers'. Methods and analysis: 350 informal carers (age 18+ years) living in Britain who self-identify as experiencing stress and depression will be recruited. They will be randomised to receive 'iSupport', or standardised information about caring for someone with dementia (control–comparison). Data will be collected via videoconferencing (eg, Zoom) or telephone interview at baseline, 3 months and 6 months. Intention-to-treat analysis will ascertain effectiveness in the primary outcomes (distress and depression) and combined cost, and quality-adjusted life-year data will be used to assess cost-effectiveness compared with usual care from a public sector and wider societal perspective. A mixed-methods process evaluation with a subgroup of carers in the intervention (~N=50) will explore the barriers and facilitators to implementing 'iSupport'. A non-randomised feasibility study will adapt 'iSupport' for young carers (n=38 participants, age 11–17 years). Ethics and dissemination: The research plan was scrutinised by National Institute for Health Research reviewers ahead of funding being awarded. Ethical approval was granted by Bangor University's School of Health and Medical Sciences Academic Ethics Committee, reference number 2021-16915. Dissemination plans include delivering events for stakeholders, social media, a project website, developing policy briefings, presenting at conferences and producing articles for open access publications. Trial registration number: ISRCTN17420703

Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Human influences have likely already impacted the large-scale water cycle but natural variability and observational uncertainty are substantial. It is essential to maintain and improve observational capabilities to better characterize changes. Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes

Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease: an individual-participant-data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment. METHODS: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes, with no language restrictions. We calculated risk ratios and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification across predicted 10 year risk categories (ie, <5%, 5% to <7·5%, and ≥7·5%), adding assessment of NT-proBNP concentration to that of conventional risk factors (ie, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol concentrations). Primary outcomes were the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. FINDINGS: We recorded 5500 coronary heart disease, 4002 stroke, and 2212 heart failure outcomes among 95 617 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in 40 prospective studies. Risk ratios (for a comparison of the top third vs bottom third of NT-proBNP concentrations, adjusted for conventional risk factors) were 1·76 (95% CI 1·56-1·98) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and 2·00 (1·77-2·26) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Addition of information about NT-proBNP concentration to a model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index increase of 0·012 (0·010-0·014) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·027 (0·019-0·036) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and a C-index increase of 0·019 (0·016-0·022) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·028 (0·019-0·038) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. INTERPRETATION: In people without baseline cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP concentration assessment strongly predicted first-onset heart failure and augmented coronary heart disease and stroke prediction, suggesting that NT-proBNP concentration assessment could be used to integrate heart failure into cardiovascular disease primary prevention. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, Austrian Science Fund, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

Research tensions with the use of timed numeracy fluency assessments as a research tool

In this paper, we describe how we came to use timed fluency activities, along with personal learner reflections on those activities, in our after-school maths club as a complementary research and developmental tool for assessing the changing levels of learners’ mathematical proficiency over time. We use data from one case-study after-school maths club. Not only did the activities provide us as researchers, and mentors, with a quick way of tracking, evaluating, encouraging and valuing learner progress, but also with a mechanism for the learners to practise the fluency they were developing through other activities of the club. More importantly, the use of learner reflections assisted learner buy-in and reduced the stress related to such timed assessments. This alleviated, to some extent, our ethical unease with the use of such instruments. We have subsequently extended this research and development tool in all clubs that we run and continue to research their affect and effect in order to gain deeper understanding of the research and development opportunities enabled by such activities