Persistent punishment : users views of short prison sentences

Semi-structured interviews were conducted of 22 prisoners to gather information about the characteristic features of short prison sentences. Themes raised in comments included: the frequency and quality of sentences, addiction, family, and penal legitimacy. Most of the participants had extensive experience of prison, and the effects of this played out across sentences and years, accumulating and amplifying impacts. And, despite expressions of guilt and remorse, most participants saw their sentence as unjust, and mainly a reaction to offending history. We conclude by suggesting the need for research to shift focus from evaluating individual penal interventions towards more holistic and narrative accounts that cut across sentences

A survey of parental self-efficacy experiences: maximising potential through health visiting and universal parenting support

Aims: To examine parental self-efficacy experiences for users of a parenting support programme and consider the pertinence of self-efficacy theory to health visiting (public health nursing) practice. Background: Commonly, successful parenting training programmes are underpinned by social learning principles and aim to strengthen parental self-efficacy. However, research examining programme effectiveness rarely discusses how self-efficacy outcomes are achieved. Design: A descriptive survey was completed as the first part of a realistic evaluation study examining how a UK parenting support programme worked. Method: The first part of the realistic evaluation involved validating outcome measures (the Parenting Self-Agency Measure and Self-Efficacy for Parenting Tasks Index subscales) and administering a questionnaire survey. The questionnaire was completed by adults accessing a parenting support programme during a 10-month period (n = 168). Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results. Women were the main users of the programme, which included informal drop-in groups as well as more formalised health visiting services and parenting training courses. The Parenting Self-Agency Measure results indicated good general parental self-efficacy; however, the task-specific Self-Efficacy for Parenting Tasks Indexes scales suggested that parents were less self-efficacious in disciplining children. Lower self-efficacy scores correlated with high ratings for ‘feeling tired’, ‘receiving negative comments’ and ‘giving-in to a child’s demands’. Conclusions: Study results indicate that the domain general and task-specific measures provide different, but helpful, insights into parental self-efficacy experiences. By identifying factors associated with the levels of general and task-specific parental self-efficacy, health visitors can gain a fuller appreciation of support needs. Relevance to practice: To maximise potential through parenting support, attention should be given to addressing factors associated with poorer self-efficacy experiences, including parental tiredness. Equally, practice should be directed at developing community environments that offer exposure to positive praise and the opportunity to practice new skills without facing criticism

Prediction of Large Events on a Dynamical Model of a Fault

We present results for long term and intermediate term prediction algorithms applied to a simple mechanical model of a fault. We use long term prediction methods based, for example, on the distribution of repeat times between large events to establish a benchmark for predictability in the model. In comparison, intermediate term prediction techniques, analogous to the pattern recognition algorithms CN and M8 introduced and studied by Keilis-Borok et al., are more effective at predicting coming large events. We consider the implications of several different quality functions Q which can be used to optimize the algorithms with respect to features such as space, time, and magnitude windows, and find that our results are not overly sensitive to variations in these algorithm parameters. We also study the intrinsic uncertainties associated with seismicity catalogs of restricted lengths.Comment: 33 pages, plain.tex with special macros include

Social marketing and problem gambling: A critical perspective

The paper provides a timely reminder of the role of policy levers, harm-minimisation and health promotion in addressing important public health issues such as gambling, and a stark warning that gambling-related harm remains a much neglected concern. It also describes three interrelated factors marking out today’s gambling problems from those of the past: - extensive distribution channels have greatly increased accessibility; - technological innovation is out-stripping control efforts; - it has become an international phenomenon. In short, gambling is part of a growing global industry driven by powerful multinational corporations. These efforts are built on marketing. The authors briefly allude to marketing, as part of the solution, but we instead focus on its role as part of the problem. In the process we reinforce their argument that the public health response to gambling can learn much from tobacco control

Impact of inactivated poliovirus vaccine on mucosal immunity: implications for the polio eradication endgame.

The polio eradication endgame aims to bring transmission of all polioviruses to a halt. To achieve this aim, it is essential to block viral replication in individuals via induction of a robust mucosal immune response. Although it has long been recognized that inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) is incapable of inducing a strong mucosal response on its own, it has recently become clear that IPV may boost immunity in the intestinal mucosa among individuals previously immunized with oral poliovirus vaccine. Indeed, mucosal protection appears to be stronger following a booster dose of IPV than oral poliovirus vaccine, especially in older children. Here, we review the available evidence regarding the impact of IPV on mucosal immunity, and consider the implications of this evidence for the polio eradication endgame. We conclude that the implementation of IPV in both routine and supplementary immunization activities has the potential to play a key role in halting poliovirus transmission, and thereby hasten the eradication of polio

Home blood-pressure monitoring in a hypertensive pregnant population.

OBJECTIVE: The majority of patients with chronic or gestational hypertension do not develop pre-eclampsia. Home blood-pressure monitoring (HBPM) has the potential to offer a more accurate and acceptable means of monitoring hypertensive patients during pregnancy compared with traditional pathways of frequent outpatient monitoring. The aim of this study was to determine whether HBPM reduces visits to antenatal services and is safe in pregnancy. METHODS: This was a case-control study of 166 hypertensive pregnant women, which took place at St George's Hospital, University of London. Inclusion criteria were: chronic hypertension, gestational hypertension or high risk of developing pre-eclampsia, no significant proteinuria (≤ 1+ proteinuria on dipstick testing) and normal biochemical and hematological markers. Exclusion criteria were maternal age  155 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure > 100 mmHg, significant proteinuria (≥ 2+ proteinuria on dipstick testing or protein/creatinine ratio > 30 mg/mmol), evidence of small-for-gestational age (estimated fetal weight < 10th centile), signs of severe pre-eclampsia, significant mental health concerns or insufficient understanding of the English language. Pregnant women in the HBPM group were taught how to measure and record their blood pressure using a validated machine at home and attended every 1-2 weeks for assessment depending on clinical need. The control group was managed as per the local protocol prior to the implementation of HBPM. The two groups were compared with respect to number of visits to antenatal services and outcome. RESULTS: There were 108 women in the HBPM group and 58 in the control group. There was no difference in maternal age, parity, body mass index, ethnicity or smoking status between the groups, but there were more women with chronic hypertension in the HBPM group compared with the control group (49.1% vs 25.9%, P = 0.004). The HBPM group had significantly fewer outpatient attendances per patient (6.5 vs 8.0, P = 0.003) and this difference persisted when taking into account differences in duration of monitoring (0.8 vs 1.6 attendances per week, P < 0.001). There was no difference in the incidence of adverse maternal, fetal or neonatal outcome between the two groups. CONCLUSION: HBPM in hypertensive pregnancies has the potential to reduce the number of hospital visits required by patients without compromising maternal and pregnancy outcomes. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Forecasting scenarios for UK household expenditure and associated GHG emissions : Outlook to 2030

Peer reviewedPreprin

A retrospective assessment of mortality from the London smog episode of 1952: the role of influenza and pollution.

The London smog of 1952 is one of history's most important air pollution episodes in terms of its impact on science, public perception of air pollution, and government regulation. The association between health and air pollution during the episode was evident as a strong rise in air pollution levels was immediately followed by sharp increases in mortality and morbidity. However, mortality in the months after the smog was also elevated above normal levels. An initial government report proposed the hypothesis that influenza was responsible for high mortality during these months. Estimates of the number of influenza deaths were generated using multiple methods, indicating that only a fraction of the deaths in the months after the smog could be attributable to influenza. Sensitivity analysis reveals that only an extremely severe influenza epidemic could account for the majority of the excess deaths for this time period. Such an epidemic would be on the order of twice the case-fatality rate and quadruple the incidence observed in a general medical practice during the winter of 1953. These results underscore the need for diligence regarding extremely high air pollution that still exists in many parts of the world

Lung Cancer and Elemental Carbon Exposure in Trucking Industry Workers

Background: Diesel exhaust has been considered to be a probable lung carcinogen based on studies of occupationally exposed workers. Efforts to define lung cancer risk in these studies have been limited in part by lack of quantitative exposure estimates. Objective: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to assess lung cancer mortality risk among U.S. trucking industry workers. Elemental carbon (EC) was used as a surrogate of exposure to engine exhaust from diesel vehicles, traffic, and loading dock operations. Methods: Work records were available for 31,135 male workers employed in the unionized U.S. trucking industry in 1985. A statistical model based on a national exposure assessment was used to estimate historical work-related exposures to EC. Lung cancer mortality was ascertained through the year 2000, and associations with cumulative and average EC were estimated using proportional hazards models. Results: Duration of employment was inversely associated with lung cancer risk consistent with a healthy worker survivor effect and a cohort composed of prevalent hires. After adjusting for employment duration, we noted a suggestion of a linear exposure–response relationship. For each 1,000-µg/m3 months of cumulative EC, based on a 5-year exposure lag, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.07 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99, 1.15] with a similar association for a 10-year exposure lag [HR = 1.09 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.20)]. Average exposure was not associated with relative risk. Conclusions: Lung cancer mortality in trucking industry workers increased in association with cumulative exposure to EC after adjusting for negative confounding by employment duration

An exploratory approach for enhancing vertical and horizontal equity tests for ad valorem property tax valuations using geographically weighted regression

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to enhance the estimation of vertical and horizontal inequity within property valuation. Property taxation is a crucial source of finance for local government around the world – based on a presumptive tax base underpinned by estimates of property value, inaccurate real estate valuations used for such ad valorem or value-based property tax calculations potentially lead to a variety of costs, both financial and other, for tax payers and governments alike. More common are increased costs in time, staff and, in some cases, legal fees. Some governments are even bound by acceptability thresholds to promote fairness, equitability and overall government accountability with respect to valuation. Design/methodology/approach: There exist a number of vertical inequity measurements that have undergone academic testing and scrutiny within the property tax industry since the 1970s. While these approaches have proved successful in detecting horizontal and vertical inequity, one recurring disadvantage pertains to measurement error/omitted variable bias, stemming largely from a failure to accurately account for location. A natural progression within property tax research is the application of a more spatially local weighted modelling approach to examine vertical and horizontal inequity. This research, therefore, specifies a geographically weighted regression (GWR) methodology to detect and measure vertical inequity in property valuations. Findings: The findings show the efficacy of using more applied spatial approaches for vertical tax estimation and indeed the limitations of employing conditional mean estimates coupled with delineated boundaries for assessing property tax inequity. The GWR model findings highlight the more fluctuating nature of vertical inequity across the Belfast market for the apartment sector both in a progressive and regressive sense and at different magnitudes. Moreover, the results reveal spatial clustering in the effects and are indicative of systematic inequities related to location inferring that spatial (horizontal) tax inequities are not random. The findings further show increased GWR model predictability overall. Originality/value: This research adds to the existing literature base for evaluating both vertical and horizontal inequity in value-based property taxation at the intra-neighbourhood level. This is accomplished by modifying the Birch–Sunderman approach by transforming the traditional OLS model architecture to a GWR model, thereby allowing coefficient estimates of inequity to vary not only across a jurisdiction, but also at a more local level, while incorporating property characteristic variables. This arguably allows assessors to identify specific geographical areas of concern, saving them money, time and resources on identifying, addressing and correcting for inequity