What Can we Learn from our Mistakes? Evaluating the Benefits of Correcting Inefficiencies in USDA Cotton Forecasts.

This study investigated the magnitude of forecast improvements resulting from correction of inefficiencies in USDA cotton forecasts over 1999/00 to 2008/09 marketing years. The aspects of forecast performance included in this study were 1) bias and trends in bias, 2) correlation between forecast error and forecast level, 3) autocorrelation in forecast errors, 4) correlation in forecast revisions. Overall the results of this study demonstrated that some corrections of forecast inefficiencies, such as correction of correlation of error with forecast levels and correlation of error with previous year’s error resulted in consistent improvement of USDA cotton forecasts, while correction for correlation in forecast revisions did not benefit the forecasts. Correction for bias yielded mixed results likely because USDA has already been applying those corrections to some of the categories and thus our analysis resulted in over-correcting. The framework developed in this study can be used by USDA and other agencies to monitor and improve the performance of their forecasts.Commodity, Forecast evaluation, Fixed-event forecasts, Government forecasting, Forecast improvement, Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, E37, E3, Q13,

Impact of public release of performance data on the behaviour of healthcare consumers and providers.

BACKGROUND: It is becoming increasingly common to publish information about the quality and performance of healthcare organisations and individual professionals. However, we do not know how this information is used, or the extent to which such reporting leads to quality improvement by changing the behaviour of healthcare consumers, providers, and purchasers. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effects of public release of performance data, from any source, on changing the healthcare utilisation behaviour of healthcare consumers, providers (professionals and organisations), and purchasers of care. In addition, we sought to estimate the effects on healthcare provider performance, patient outcomes, and staff morale. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and two trials registers on 26 June 2017. We checked reference lists of all included studies to identify additional studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We searched for randomised or non-randomised trials, interrupted time series, and controlled before-after studies of the effects of publicly releasing data regarding any aspect of the performance of healthcare organisations or professionals. Each study had to report at least one main outcome related to selecting or changing care. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened studies for eligibility and extracted data. For each study, we extracted data about the target groups (healthcare consumers, healthcare providers, and healthcare purchasers), performance data, main outcomes (choice of healthcare provider, and improvement by means of changes in care), and other outcomes (awareness, attitude, knowledge of performance data, and costs). Given the substantial degree of clinical and methodological heterogeneity between the studies, we presented the findings for each policy in a structured format, but did not undertake a meta-analysis. MAIN RESULTS: We included 12 studies that analysed data from more than 7570 providers (e.g. professionals and organisations), and a further 3,333,386 clinical encounters (e.g. patient referrals, prescriptions). We included four cluster-randomised trials, one cluster-non-randomised trial, six interrupted time series studies, and one controlled before-after study. Eight studies were undertaken in the USA, and one each in Canada, Korea, China, and The Netherlands. Four studies examined the effect of public release of performance data on consumer healthcare choices, and four on improving quality.There was low-certainty evidence that public release of performance data may make little or no difference to long-term healthcare utilisation by healthcare consumers (3 studies; 18,294 insurance plan beneficiaries), or providers (4 studies; 3,000,000 births, and 67 healthcare providers), or to provider performance (1 study; 82 providers). However, there was also low-certainty evidence to suggest that public release of performance data may slightly improve some patient outcomes (5 studies, 315,092 hospitalisations, and 7502 providers). There was low-certainty evidence from a single study to suggest that public release of performance data may have differential effects on disadvantaged populations. There was no evidence about effects on healthcare utilisation decisions by purchasers, or adverse effects. AUTHORS\u27 CONCLUSIONS: The existing evidence base is inadequate to directly inform policy and practice. Further studies should consider whether public release of performance data can improve patient outcomes, as well as healthcare processes

Characterisation of the Major Facilitator Superfamily Domain Containing 1 Protein (MFSD1) and study of its physiological role in the mouse

In this study, a recently identified putative lysosomal transporter, Major Facilitator Superfamily Domain containing 1 (MFSD1), was biochemically characterized and its physiological role in mice was investigated. MFSD1 is expressed ubiquitously in mouse tissues. A dileucine-based lysosomal sorting motif necessary for the transport of MFSD1 to lysosomes was identified. GLMP, a highly glycosylated lysosomal membrane protein, was identified as an interaction partner of MFSD1. The stability of GLMP and MFSD1 depends on each other. In the absence of GLMP, the levels of MFSD1 in tissues and cells were decreased below 10 % of normal levels. A thorough study of newly generated MFSD1-deficient mice revealed a complex phenotype, pointing towards a critical and essential role of MFSD1 in the physiology of the liver, the bone, the kidney and the immune system. MFSD1-deficient mice suffer from a liver insult characterized by loss of sinusoids, extravasation of erythrocytes, fibrosis and neocapillarization, a pathology that resembles that of human patients suffering from sinusoidal obstructive syndrome (SOS). SOS patients with genetic mutations in the transcription factor sp110 show an immunodeficiency. Interestingly, MFSD1-konockout mice are also immunodeficient due to impaired maturation of B lymphocytes, suggesting a possible role of MFSD1 in the pathology of SOS patients with immunodeficiency. Additionally, the mineralization ability of MFSD1-deficient osteoblasts in vertebrae is impaired, leading to decreased bone mineral density. Furthermore, the absence of MFSD1 also leads to an increase of the size of lysosomes in the proximal tubules of the kidney, suggesting a potential accumulation of the substrate(s) normally transported by MFSD1. A prove of the interdependence between MFSD1 and GLMP is that the phenotype of GLMP-deficient mice is a phenocopy of MFSD1 knockout mice

Microwave Tomography System for Methodical Testing of Human Brain Stroke Detection Approaches

In this work, a prototype of a laboratory microwave imaging system suitable to methodically test the ability to image, detect, and classify human brain strokes using microwave technology is presented. It consists of an antenna array holder equipped with ten newly developed slot bowtie antennas, a 2.5 D reconfigurable and replaceable human head phantom, stroke phantoms, and related measuring technology and software. This prototype was designed to allow measurement of a complete S-matrix of the antenna array. The reconfigurable and replaceable phantom has currently 23 different predefined positions for stroke phantom placement. This setting allows repeated measurements for the stroke phantoms of different types, sizes/shapes, and at different positions. It is therefore suitable for large-scale measurements with high variability of measured data for stroke detection and classification based on machine learning methods. In order to verify the functionality of the measuring system, S-parameters were measured for a hemorrhagic phantom sequentially placed on 23 different positions and distributions of dielectric parameters were reconstructed using the Gauss-Newton iterative reconstruction algorithm. The results correlate well with the actual position of the stroke phantom and its type

Relación del cambio climático con la producción agrí­cola en la Provincia del Azuay

La provincia del Azuay presenta tradicionalmente una concentración en los cultivos como el maíz, frejol seco y tierno, arveja y papa, que además de constituir una actividad económica, son parte fundamental de la dieta, tradiciones y costumbres de la población. A partir de la sistematización de la información, se analiza la correlación que existe entre las variables, las características propias del cultivo y su relación con las variables climáticas. Los resultados alcanzados en el trabajo evidencian una relación negativa entre las variables analizadas; es decir, las variaciones en temperatura y precipitación disminuyen el rendimiento de los cultivos

La reconfiguración de la cacería de animales de monte por parte de los kichwas amazónicos en Sucumbíos/ The reconfiguration of hunting of forest animals by the Amazonian kichwas in Sucumbios

El territorio amazónico ha sido intervenido por diversos actores sociales e institucionales. Estas intervenciones han desestructurado y/o reconfigurado las prácticas ancestrales locales de las comunidades indígenas, de manera específica, de los kichwas de la provincia de Sucumbíos, la cual está ubicada al norte de la Amazonía del Ecuador. La forma en que las prácticas ancestrales han sido desestructuradas, se visibiliza en la cacería y consumo de animales de monte. Cabe mencionar, que en épocas antiguas -la cacería- estaba vinculada a una dinámica de subsistencia y además, cumplía una función simbólica de la reproducción social. En la actualidad, en ciertos territorios, estas dinámicas se han transformado. En ese sentido, el presente artículo evidencia este proceso social, con la finalidad de visibilizar cómo las agendas de intervención en el territorio amazónico, por parte del Estado, las organizaciones privadas y otros actores, han reconfigurado las prácticas locales como la cacería y el consumo de animales de monte.   Abstract The Amazonian territory has been intervened by various social and institutional actors. These interventions have unstructured and/or reconfigured the local ancestral practices of the indigenous communities, specifically, in the Kichwas of the province of Sucumbíos, located in the north of the Amazon of Ecuador. The way in which ancestral practices have been unstructured is visible in the hunting and consumption of wild animals. It is worth mentioning that in ancient times hunting was linked to a subsistence dynamic and, in addition, they fulfilled a symbolic function of social reproduction. At present, in specific territories, these dynamics have been transformed. In this sense, this article demonstrates this social process, in order to make visible how the intervention agendas in the Amazonian territory, by the State, the private organizations and other actors, have reconfigured local practices such as the hunting and the consumption of wild animals

MOST detects corotating bright spots on the mid-O type giant {\xi} Persei

We have used the MOST (Microvariability and Oscillations of STars) microsatellite to obtain four weeks of contiguous high-precision broadband visual photometry of the O7.5III(n)((f)) star {\xi} Persei in November 2011. This star is well known from previous work to show prominent DACs (Discrete Absorption Components) on time-scales of about 2 d from UV spectroscopy and NRP (Non Radial Pulsation) with one (l = 3) p-mode oscillation with a period of 3.5 h from optical spectroscopy. Our MOST-orbit (101.4 min) binned photometry fails to reveal any periodic light variations above the 0.1 mmag 3-sigma noise level for periods of hours, while several prominent Fourier peaks emerge at the 1 mmag level in the two-day period range. These longer-period variations are unlikely due to pulsations, including gravity modes. From our simulations based upon a simple spot model, we deduce that we are seeing the photometric modulation of several co-rotating bright spots on the stellar surface. In our model, the starting times (random) and lifetimes (up to several rotations) vary from one spot to another yet all spots rotate at the same period of 4.18 d, the best-estimated rotation period of the star. This is the first convincing reported case of co-rotating bright spots on an O star, with important implications for drivers of the DACs (resulting from CIRs - Corotating Interaction Regions) with possible bright-spot generation via a breakout at the surface of a global magnetic field generated by a subsurface convection zone.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, MNRAS in pres

MLPerf Inference Benchmark

Machine-learning (ML) hardware and software system demand is burgeoning. Driven by ML applications, the number of different ML inference systems has exploded. Over 100 organizations are building ML inference chips, and the systems that incorporate existing models span at least three orders of magnitude in power consumption and five orders of magnitude in performance; they range from embedded devices to data-center solutions. Fueling the hardware are a dozen or more software frameworks and libraries. The myriad combinations of ML hardware and ML software make assessing ML-system performance in an architecture-neutral, representative, and reproducible manner challenging. There is a clear need for industry-wide standard ML benchmarking and evaluation criteria. MLPerf Inference answers that call. In this paper, we present our benchmarking method for evaluating ML inference systems. Driven by more than 30 organizations as well as more than 200 ML engineers and practitioners, MLPerf prescribes a set of rules and best practices to ensure comparability across systems with wildly differing architectures. The first call for submissions garnered more than 600 reproducible inference-performance measurements from 14 organizations, representing over 30 systems that showcase a wide range of capabilities. The submissions attest to the benchmark's flexibility and adaptability.Comment: ISCA 202

ECCRINE ANGIOMATOUS HAMARTOMA

O hamartoma angiomatoso écrino é uma malformação benigna rara, de etiologia desconhecida, caracterizada histologicamente por numerosos capilares e estruturas glandulares écrinas. Surge mais frequentemente ao nascimento ou na infância, manifestando-se por mancha, placa ou nódulo com crescimento proporcional ao da criança. Pode apresentar hiperhidrose, hipertricose e dor. Descreve-se o caso de uma criança do sexo masculino, de 3 anos, referenciada por 3 manchas discretamente hiperpigmentadas de tonalidade castanha clara, com contornos irregulares e hipertricose, com mais de 20 cm de maior eixo cada, localizadas à área toracolombar esquerda. À fricção as lesões tornavam-se mais evidentes. Evoluíam desde os 6 meses de idade com hiperhidrose local. A biopsia confirmou o diagnóstico de hamartoma angiomatoso écrino. Face à benignidade da lesão e à fruste sintomatologia optou-se por não realizar tratamento. O hamartoma angiomatoso écrino é uma entidade rara destacando-se neste caso, as lesões de grande dimensão, segundo o nosso conhecimento, não referidas anteriormente na literatura.Eccrine angiomatous hamartoma is a rare, benign malformation, of unknown aetiology, histologically characterized by capillary and eccrine glandular proliferation. It begins more frequently at birth or during childhood, presenting with a patch, plaque or nodule growing proportionally to the child’s growth. It can present with hyperhidrosis, hypertrichosis and pain. We report the case of a 3-year-old boy who was referred by 3 lightly brownish hyperpigmented patches, with more than 20cm long each, irregular borders, hypertrichosis, at the left thoracolumbar region. At friction, lesions became more vivid, with an evolution from 6 month-old with hyperhidrosis. The biopsy confirmed eccrine angiomatous hamartoma diagnosis. Due to the lesion’s benign nature and subtle symptomatology it was decided not to perform any treatment. Eccrine angiomatous hamartoma is a rare entity and this case, to the best of our knowledge, is the biggest one described until now

Gravito-electromagnetic analogies

We reexamine and further develop different gravito-electromagnetic (GEM) analogies found in the literature, and clarify the connection between them. Special emphasis is placed in two exact physical analogies: the analogy based on inertial fields from the so-called "1+3 formalism", and the analogy based on tidal tensors. Both are reformulated, extended and generalized. We write in both formalisms the Maxwell and the full exact Einstein field equations with sources, plus the algebraic Bianchi identities, which are cast as the source-free equations for the gravitational field. New results within each approach are unveiled. The well known analogy between linearized gravity and electromagnetism in Lorentz frames is obtained as a limiting case of the exact ones. The formal analogies between the Maxwell and Weyl tensors are also discussed, and, together with insight from the other approaches, used to physically interpret gravitational radiation. The precise conditions under which a similarity between gravity and electromagnetism occurs are discussed, and we conclude by summarizing the main outcome of each approach.Comment: 60 pages, 2 figures. Improved version (compared to v2) with some re-write, notation improvements and a new figure that match the published version; expanded compared to the published version to include Secs. 2.3 and