Developing observational methods to drive future hydrological science: can we make a start as a community?

Hydrology is still, and for good reasons, an inexact science, even if evolving hydrological understanding has provided a basis for improved water management for at least the last three millennia. The limitations of that understanding have, however, become much more apparent and important in the last century as the pressures of increasing populations, and the anthropogenic impacts on catchment forcing and responses, have intensified. At the same time, the sophistication of hydrological analyses and models has been developing rapidly, often driven more by the availability of computational power and geographical data sets than any real increases in understanding of hydrological processes. This sophistication has created an illusion of real progress but a case can be made that we are still rather muddling along, limited by the significant uncertainties in hydrological observations, knowledge of catchment characteristics and related gaps in conceptual understanding, particularly of the sub-surface. These knowledge gaps are illustrated by the fact that for many catchments we cannot close the water balance without significant uncertainty, uncertainty that is often neglected in evaluating models for practical applications

The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe

Effective disaster risk management relies on science-based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The consultation on the United Nations post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlights the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, in order to save lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital early flood warning information to national and international civil protection authorities, who can use this information to make decisions on how to prepare for upcoming floods. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings are estimated based on the forecasts of the continental-scale European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) using existing flood damage cost information and calculations of potential avoided flood damages. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to test the uncertainty in the method and develop an envelope of potential monetary benefits of EFAS warnings. The results provide clear evidence that there is likely a substantial monetary benefit in this cross-border continental-scale flood early warning system. This supports the wider drive to implement early warning systems at the continental or global scale to improve our resilience to natural hazards

Improvements in forecasting intense rainfall: results from the FRANC (forecasting rainfall exploiting new data assimilation techniques and novel observations of convection) project

The FRANC project (Forecasting Rainfall exploiting new data Assimilation techniques and Novel observations of Convection) has researched improvements in numerical weather prediction of convective rainfall via the reduction of initial condition uncertainty. This article provides an overview of the project’s achievements. We highlight new radar techniques: correcting for attenuation of the radar return; correction for beams that are over 90% blocked by trees or towers close to the radar; and direct assimilation of radar reflectivity and refractivity. We discuss the treatment of uncertainty in data assimilation: new methods for estimation of observation uncertainties with novel applications to Doppler radar winds, Atmospheric Motion Vectors, and satellite radiances; a new algorithm for implementation of spatially-correlated observation error statistics in operational data assimilation; and innovative treatment of moist processes in the background error covariance model. We present results indicating a link between the spatial predictability of convection and convective regimes, with potential to allow improved forecast interpretation. The research was carried out as a partnership between University researchers and the Met Office (UK). We discuss the benefits of this approach and the impact of our research, which has helped to improve operational forecasts for convective rainfall event

Can hydrological models assess the impact of natural flood management in groundwater-dominated catchments?

Natural flood management (NFM) is widely promoted for managing flood risks but the effectiveness of different types of NFM schemes at medium (100–1000 km2) and large scales (>1000 km2) remains widely unknown. This study demonstrates the importance of fully understanding the impact of model structure, calibration and uncertainty techniques on the results before the NFM assessment is undertaken. Land-based NFM assessment is undertaken in two medium-scale lowland catchments within the Thames River basin (UK) with a modelling approach that uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model within an uncertainty framework. The model performed poorly in groundwater-dominated areas (P-factor 0.6). The model performed better in areas dominated by surface and interflow processes (Pfactor >0.5 and R-factor <0.6) and here hypothetical experiments converting land to broadleaf woodland and cropland showed that the model offers good potential for the assessment of NFM effectiveness. However, the reduction of large flood flows greater than 4% in medium-sized catchments would require afforestation of more than 75% of the area. Whilst hydrological models, and specifically SWAT, can be useful tools in assessing the effectiveness of NFM, these results demonstrate that they cannot be applied in all settings

Knowledge gaps in our perceptual model of Great Britain’s hydrology

There is a no lack of significant open questions in the field of hydrology. How will hydrological connectivity between freshwater bodies be altered by future human alterations to the hydrological cycle? Where does water go when it rains? Or what is the future space-time variability of flood and drought events? However, the answers to these questions will vary with location due to the specific and often poorly understood local boundary conditions and system properties that control the functional behaviour of a catchment or any other hydrologic control volume. We suggest that an open, shared and evolving perceptual model of a region’s hydrology is critical to tailor our science questions, as it would be for any other study domain from the plot to the continental scale. In this opinion piece, we begin to discuss the elements of and point out some knowledge gaps in the perceptual model of the terrestrial water cycle of Great Britain. We discuss six major knowledge gaps and propose four key ways to reduce them. While the specific knowledge gaps in our perceptual model do not necessarily transfer to other places, we believe that the development of such perceptual models should be at the core of the debate for all hydrologic communities, and we encourage others to have a similar debate for their hydrologic domain

Taking into account sensory knowledge: the case of geo-techologies for children with visual impairments

This paper argues for designing geo-technologies supporting non-visual sensory knowledge. Sensory knowledge refers to the implicit and explicit knowledge guiding our uses of our senses to understand the world. To support our argument, we build on an 18 months field-study on geography classes for primary school children with visual impairments. Our findings show (1) a paradox in the use of non-visual sensory knowledge: described as fundamental to the geography curriculum, it is mostly kept out of school; (2) that accessible geo-technologies in the literature mainly focus on substituting vision with another modality, rather than enabling teachers to build on children's experiences; (3) the importance of the hearing sense in learning about space. We then introduce a probe, a wrist-worn device enabling children to record audio cues during field-trips. By giving importance to children's hearing skills, it modified existing practices and actors' opinions on non-visual sensory knowledge. We conclude by reflecting on design implications, and the role of technologies in valuing diverse ways of understanding the world

MATERIALS TESTING AND VOLUMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXPLANTED ABG I CUP INSERTS

Introduction The ABG I acetabular insert is an ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) component used in primary hip arthroplasty. Studies have shown early osteolysis and aseptic loosening of the ABG I uncemented cup compared with other implants. Theories advocate that loosening is initiated by the biological response to insert wear debris; wear volume and the distribution of particle size are considered to be important parameters. This study analysed explanted plastic inserts to identify any mechanical properties that may have contributed to early failure.Materials and Methods 21 ABG I acetabular components were revised due to aseptic loosening over a 16 month period. Silicone casts of the insert sockets were made and volumetric analysis performed using a shadowgraphing technique and a coordinate measuring machine (CMM). The UHMWPE inserts were divided into uniform pieces with a diamond-tipped microsaw and analysed for hardness, wear, stress and strain properties using a microhardness tool, pin-on-plate analysis and small punch testing. We performed identical tests on explanted inserts from other manufacturers.Results We present the findings of the above tests and provide suggestions as to why these particular implants are more prone to early failure when compared with other common implants. We also discuss the results of volumetric analysis by shadowgraphing compared with CMM

Salmonella Paratyphi B; Public Health and Parental Choice: When to Treat Asymptomatic Carriers of Infection?

BACKGROUND: Salmonella Paratyphi B (Paratyphoid B) is a rare infection and a notifiable disease in England. Disease is typically mild, and chronic carriage in children has been described in endemic countries. Almost all cases in England are imported, with very few cases of community transmission reported. METHODS: The aim of this work was to describe an unusual cluster of Paratyphoid B cases transmitted within England, examining clinical, epidemiologic and microbiologic data. Detailed phylogenetic analysis is presented to corroborate public health epidemiologic links between cases. RESULTS: One child had recently returned from an endemic area and had mild gastrointestinal symptoms. One year later, 2 other children with no travel history developed invasive disease requiring hospitalization. Epidemiologic links confirmed person-to-person spread between these three cases. All isolates of S. Paratyphi B (n = 93) received by the Gastrointestinal Bacteria Reference Unit between 2014 and 2019 were typed using whole genome sequencing. Three cases of Paratyphoid B were identified in the same geographical location over a 2-year period. S. Paratyphi B strains isolated from the stool and blood of the three cases were closely linked (0-5 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) using whole genome sequencing. CONCLUSIONS: This case series highlights the potential public health risks of paratyphoid B and the range of pediatric complications associated with this illness, especially in younger children. Although rare, chronic carriage of Paratyphoid B can lead to transmission in nonendemic areas and should be considered in all children presenting with signs of enteric fever even where there is no history of foreign travel