A review and evaluation of secondary school accountability in England: Statistical strengths, weaknesses, and challenges for 'Progress 8' raised by Covid-19

School performance measures are published annually in England to hold schools to account and to support parental school choice. This article reviews and evaluates the ‘Progress 8’ secondary school accountability system for state-funded schools. We assess the statistical strengths and weaknesses of Progress 8 relating to: choice of pupil outcome attainment measure; potential adjustments for pupil input attainment and background characteristics; decisions around which schools and pupils are excluded from the measure; presentation of Progress 8 to users, choice of statistical model, and calculation of statistical uncertainty; and issues related to the volatility of school performance over time, including scope for reporting multi-year averages. We then discuss challenges for Progress 8 raised by the COVID-19 pandemic. Six simple recommendations follow to improve Progress 8 and school accountability in England. Context and implication Rationale for this study This study fulfils a need for a comprehensive statistical evaluation of the Progress 8 school accountability system in England, which has been in place since 2016. Why the new findings matter A review of Progress 8 is an important contribution as decisions on its calculation and presentation have important consequences for schools and pupils. Implications for educational researchers and policy makers Our findings on the statistical strengths and weaknesses of Progress 8 and the resulting recommendations made for improvements to the measure and school accountability have clear implications for informing policy makers in the educational system. This includes wider lessons extending beyond Progress 8 to other performance metrics and to other school systems internationally where similar issues apply. Additionally, the review highlights key concerns that the public and school practitioners may like to consider when drawing upon Progress 8 to make decisions around school choice and in assessing how well a school is performing

Effects of crystallographic anisotropy on fracture development and acoustic emission in quartz

Transgranular microcracking is fundamental for the initiation and propagation of all fractures in rocks. The geometry of these microcracks is primarily controlled by the interaction of the imposed stress field with the mineral elastic properties. However, the effects of anisotropic elastic properties of minerals on brittle fracture are not well understood. This study examines the effects of elastic anisotropy of quartz on the geometry of brittle fracture and related acoustic emissions (AE) developed during indentation experiments on single crystals at ambient pressure and temperature. A Hertzian cone crack developed during blunt indentation of a single crystal of flawless Brazilian quartz parallel to the c axis shows geometric deviation away from predictions based on the isotropic case, consistent with trigonal symmetry. The visible cone crack penetration depth varies from 3 to 5 mm and apical angle from 53 to 40. Electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) mapping of the crack tip shows that fracturing initiates along a ~40 μm wide process zone, comprising damage along overlapping en echelon high-index crystallographic planes, shown by discrete bands of reduced electron backscatter pattern (EBSP) quality (band contrast).Coalescence of these surfaces results in a stepped fracture morphology. Monitoring of AE during indentation reveals that the elastic anisotropy of quartz has a significant effect on AE location and focal mechanisms. Ninety-four AE events were recorded during indentation and show an increasing frequency with increasing load. They correspond to the development of subsidiary concentric cracks peripheral to the main cone crack. The strong and complex anisotropy in seismic velocity (~28% Vp, ~43% Vs with trigonal symmetry) resulted in inaccurate and high uncertainty in AE locations using Geiger location routine with an isotropic velocity model. This problem was overcome by using a relative (master event) location algorithm that only requires a priori knowledge of the velocity structure within the source volume. The AE location results correlate reasonably well to the extent of the observed cone crack. Decomposition of AE source mechanisms of the Geiger relocated events shows dominantly end-member behavior between tensile and compressive vector dipole events, with some double-couple-dominated events and no purely tensile or compressive events. The same events located by the master event algorithm yield greater percentage of vector dipole components and no double-couple events, indicating that AE source mechanism solutions can depend on AE location accuracy, and therefore, relocation routine that is utilized. Calculations show that the crystallographic anisotropy of quartz causes apparent deviation of the moment tensors away from double-couple and pure tensile/compressive sources consistent with the observations. Preliminary modeling of calcite anisotropy shows a response distinct from quartz, indicating that the effects of anisotropy on interpreting AE are complex and require detailed further study

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.

Calcite sealing in a fractured geothermal reservoir: Insights from combined EBSD and chemistry mapping

Fractures play an important role as fluid flow pathways in geothermal resources hosted in indurated greywacke basement of the Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand, including the Kawerau Geothermal Field. Over time, the permeability of such geothermal reservoirs can be degraded by fracture sealing as minerals deposit out of transported geothermal fluids. Calcite is one such fracture sealing mineral. This study, for the first time, utilises combined data from electron backscatter diffraction and chemical mapping to characterise calcite vein fill morphologies, and gain insight into the mechanisms of calcite fracture sealing in the Kawerau Geothermal Field. Two calcite sealing mechanisms are identified 1) asymmetrical syntaxial growth of calcite, inferred by the presence of single, twinned, calcite crystals spanning the entire fracture width, and 2) 3D, interlocking growth of bladed vein calcite into free space as determined from chemical and crystallographic orientation mapping. This study also identifies other potential uses of combined EBSD and chemical mapping to understand geothermal field evolution including, potentially informing on levels of fluid supersaturation from the study of calcite lattice distortion, and providing information on a reservoir's history of stress, strain, and deformation through investigation of calcite crystal deformation and twinning patterns

Mica-controlled anisotropy within mid-to-upper crustal mylonites: an EBSD study of mica fabrics in the Alpine Fault Zone, New Zealand

The lattice preferred orientation (LPO) of both muscovite and biotite were measured by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) and these data, together with the LPOs of the other main constituent minerals, were used to produce models of the seismic velocity anisotropy of the Alpine Fault Zone. Numerical experiments examine the effects of varying modal percentages of mica within the fault rocks. These models suggest that when the mica modal proportions approach 20% in quartzofeldspathic mylonites the intrinsic seismic anisotropy of the studied fault zone is dominated by mica, with the direction of the fastest P and S wave velocities strongly dependent on the mica LPOs. The LPOs show that micas produce three distinct patterns within mylonitic fault zones: C-fabric, S-fabric and a composite S–C fabric. The asymmetry of the LPOs can be used as kinematic indicators for the deformation within mylonites. Kinematic data from the micas matches the kinematic interpretation of quartz LPOs and field data. The modelling of velocities and velocity anisotropies from sample LPOs is consistent with geophysical data from the crust under the Southern Alps. The Alpine Fault mylonites and parallel Alpine schists have intrinsic P-wave velocity anisotropies of 12% and S-wave anisotropies of 10%

Delving into Allende's dark secrets

What are the strange dark clasts within carbonaceous chondrites? How did they form? And what do they tell us about the early solar system? Mark Sephton, one of a team investigating the Allende meteorite, summarizes their findings.Asteroids are remnants of the planetary construction process that occurred in the early solar system. By studying asteroids and their collision-induced fragments that fall to Earth as meteorites, we approach an understanding of the physical and chemical mechanisms that marked nascent planet formation. It is in the oldest meteorites that a record of events that began the journey from nebula material to planet-sized bodies is contained. Consequently, much attention is directed towards the most ancient class of meteorite: carbonaceous chondrites. These meteorites contain a diverse mixture of mineralogical components including high-temperature silicate “chondrules”, formed by rapid heating then cooling, but also low-temperature materials such as carbonates and phylosilicates, which are generally considered to be evidence of liquid water on the meteorite parent body. Yet the role of water and heat in the generation of other components remains enigmatic