Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy

Abstract. We investigate future (2045–2054) hydrological cycle of the snow fed Oglio (≈1800 km2) Alpine watershed in Northern Italy. A Stochastic Space Random Cascade (SSRC) approach is used to downscale future precipitation from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base and chosen for this purpose based upon previous studies. We then downscale temperature output from the GCMs to obtain temperature fields for the area. We also consider a projected scenario based upon trends locally observed in former studies, LOC scenario. Then, we feed the downscaled fields to a minimal hydrological model to build future hydrological scenarios. We provide projected flow duration curves and selected flow descriptors, giving indication of expected modified (against control run for 1990–1999) regime of low flows and droughts and flood hazard, and thus evaluate modified peak floods regime through indexed flood. We then assess the degree of uncertainty, or spread, of the projected water resources scenarios by feeding the hydrological model with ensembles projections consistent with our deterministic (GCMs + LOC) scenarios, and we evaluate the significance of the projected flow variables against those observed in the control run. The climate scenarios from the adopted GCMs differ greatly from one another with respect to projected precipitation amount and temperature regimes, and so do the projected hydrological scenarios. A relatively good agreement is found upon prospective shrinkage and shorter duration of the seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature patterns, and upon prospective increase of hydrological losses, i.e. evapotranspiration, for the same reason. However, precipitation patterns are less consistent, because HadCM3 and PCM models project noticeably increased precipitation for 2045–2054, whereas CCSM3 provides decreased precipitation patterns therein. The LOC scenario instead displays unchanged precipitation. The ensemble simulations indicate that several projected flow variables under the considered scenarios are significantly different from their control run counterparts, and also that snow cover seems to significantly decrease in duration and depth. The proposed hydrological scenarios eventually provide a what-if analysis, giving a broad view of the possible expected impacts of climate change within the Italian Alps, necessary to trigger the discussion about future adaptation strategies

Predictive Modeling the Free Hydraulic Jumps Pressure through Advanced Statistical Methods

Pressure fluctuations beneath hydraulic jumps potentially endanger the stability of stilling basins. This paper deals with the mathematical modeling of the results of laboratory-scale experiments to estimate the extreme pressures. Experiments were carried out on a smooth stilling basin underneath free hydraulic jumps downstream of an Ogee spillway. From the probability distribution of measured instantaneous pressures, pressures with different probabilities could be determined. It was verified that maximum pressure fluctuations, and the negative pressures, are located at the positions near the spillway toe. Also, minimum pressure fluctuations are located at the downstream of hydraulic jumps. It was possible to assess the cumulative curves of pressure data related to the characteristic points along the basin, and different Froude numbers. To benchmark the results, the dimensionless forms of statistical parameters include mean pressures (P*m), the standard deviations of pressure fluctuations (σ*X), pressures with different non-exceedance probabilities (P*k%), and the statistical coefficient of the probability distribution (Nk%) were assessed. It was found that an existing method can be used to interpret the present data, and pressure distribution in similar conditions, by using a new second-order fractional relationships for σ*X, and Nk%. The values of the Nk% coefficient indicated a single mean value for each probability

Modelling shortwave and longwave downward radiation and air temperature driving ablation at the Forni Glacier (Stelvio National Park, Italy)

We focus here on modelling the meteorological parameters most influencing snow/ice melting over an alpine glacier. Specifically, we consider shortwave and longwave downward radiation, and air temperature. We set up and test a methodology for their accurate distribution at the glacier surface, which can be applied whenever: i) supraglacial meteoro-logical measurements are available or ii) weather data are acquired from a station quite close to the glacier. As a suitable site to test our approach we selected the Forni Glacier, in the Italian Alps, where an Automatic Weather Station (AWS) has been running since autumn 2005 thus giving a robust dataset for developing a field based modeling approach. First, we modelled and distributed the incoming solar radiation by taking into account actual atmospheric conditions, glacier topography and shading. Then, we modelled the incoming longwave radiation considering cloud-cover and air temperature. Third, we investigated a local lapse rate to depict the yearly variability of the vertical air temperature gradient, to assess the actual thermal conditions at different elevations. Finally, we compared the modeled values against data collected on the field. The results display that during the glacier ablation period (i.e.: May-September): i) our approach provides a good depiction of both point incoming solar and infrared radiation fluxes, ii) the spatial distribution of the incoming solar radiation we developed is satisfactory, iii) our tests suggest that the incoming longwave fluxes can be considered constant over the whole glacier ablation area thus neglecting its spatial distribution, and iv) the application of a local lapse rate provides a good distribution of air temperature at the glacier surface

An ablation model for debris-covered ice: the case study of Venerocolo Glacier (Italian Alps)

We developed a simple model to estimate ice ablation under a debris cover. The ablation process is modelled using energy and mass conservation equations for debris and ice and heat conduction, driven by input of either i) debris surface temperature or ii) radiation fluxes, and solved through a finite difference scheme computing the conductive heat flux within the supra-glacial debris layer. For model calibration, input and validation, we used approximately bi-weekly surveys of ice ablation rate, debris cover temperature, air temperature and solar incoming and upwelling radiation during for Summer 2007. We calibrated the model for debris thermal conductivity using a subset of ablation data and then we validated it using another subset. Comparisons between calculated and measured values showed a good agreement (RMSE = 0.04 m w.e., r = 0.79), thus suggesting a good performance of the model in predicting ice ablation. Thermal conductivity was found to be the most critical parameter in the proposed model, and it was estimated by debris temperature and thickness, with value changing along the investigated ablation season. The proposed model may be used to quantify buried ice ablation given a reasonable assessment of thermal conductivity

Analysis of changes in crop farming in the Dudh Koshi (Nepal) driven by climate changes

Nepal is one of the poorest nations of the world and the Koshi Basin includes some of the poorest regions of this country. It's farming system is subsistence agriculture, mainly rainfed, with crop productivity among the lowest in South Asia. Nepal is also severely impacted by climate changes, such as retreat of glaciers, rise in temperature, erratic rainfalls and increase in frequency of extreme weather. This paper describes the spatio-temporal evolution of cultivated land in Dudh Koshi during the last four decades (1970s-2010s), by mapping the farming of its four main cereals in the districts of Solukhumbu, Okhaldunga and Kothang from space. The analysis of satellite time series showed a 10% of increment in farmland from 1970s to 1990s, and about 60% in the following twenty years. With a shift of cropping to higher altitudes. Data belonging to of the second twenty years are strongly correlated with the population growth observed in the same period (0.97<0.99) and consistent with the average daily caloric intake. Finding confirms the result of recent studies that agriculture practices once distributed in lowland areas have now spread to higher altitudes and seems to suggest that demographic and socioeconomic pressures are driving the expansion, while climatic and topographic parameters are just channeling the expansion. Apart from any policies that could change the tack, Dudh Koshi should be able to meet the increasing demand of cereals in the near future and climate seems not being a limiting factor for further development as it will be the availability of an irrigation system

Future Hydrological Regimes in the Upper Indus Basin: A Case Study from a High-Altitude Glacierized Catchment

The mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalayas (HKH) are considered Earth’s “third pole,” and water from there plays an essential role for downstream populations. The dynamics of glaciers in Karakoram are complex, and in recent decades the area has experienced unchanged ice cover, despite rapid decline elsewhere in the world (the Karakoram anomaly). Assessment of future water resources and hydrological variability under climate change in this area is greatly needed, but the hydrology of these high-altitude catchments is still poorly studied and little understood. This study focuses on a particular watershed, the Shigar River with the control section at Shigar (about 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from two major glaciers (Baltoro and Biafo). Hydrological, meteorological, and glaciological data gathered during 3 years of field campaigns (2011–13) are used to set up a hydrological model, providing a depiction of instream flows, snowmelt, and ice cover thickness. The model is used to assess changes of the hydrological cycle until 2100, via climate projections provided by three state-of-the-art global climate models used in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Under all RCPs, future flows are predicted to increase until midcentury and then to decrease, but remaining mostly higher than control run values. Snowmelt is projected to occur earlier, while the ice melt component is expected to increase, with ice thinning considerably and even disappearing below 4000 m MSL until 2100

Future hydrological regimes and glacier cover in the Everest region: The case study of the upper Dudh Koshi basin

Assessment of future water resources under climate change is required in the Himalayas, where hydrological cycle is poorly studied and little understood. This study focuses on the upper Dudh Koshi river of Nepal (151 km2, 4200–8848 m a.s.l.) at the toe of Mt. Everest, nesting the debris covered Khumbu, and Khangri Nup glaciers (62 km2). New data gathered during three years of field campaigns (2012–2014) were used to set up a glacio-hydrological model describing stream flows, snow and ice melt, ice cover thickness and glaciers' flow dynamics. The model was validated, and used to assess changes of the hydrological cycle until 2100. Climate projections are used from three Global Climate Models used in the recent IPCC AR5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Flow statistics are estimated for two reference decades 2045–2054, and 2090–2099, and compared against control run CR, 2012–2014. During CR we found a contribution of ice melt to stream flows of 55% yearly, with snow melt contributing for 19%. Future flows are predicted to increase in monsoon season, but to decrease yearly (− 4% vs CR on average) at 2045–2054. At the end of century large reduction would occur in all seasons, i.e. − 26% vs CR on average at 2090–2099. At half century yearly contribution of ice melt would be on average 45%, and snow melt 28%. At the end of century ice melt would be 31%, and snow contribution 39%. Glaciers in the area are projected to thin largely up to 6500 m a.s.l. until 2100, reducing their volume by − 50% or more, and their ice covered area by − 30% or more. According to our results, in the future water resources in the upper Dudh Koshi would decrease, and depend largely upon snow melt and rainfall, so that adaptation measures to modified water availability will be required

A simple model to evaluate ice melt over the ablation area of glaciers in the Central Karakoram National Park, Pakistan

This study provides an estimate of fresh water derived from ice melt for the ablation areas of glaciers in the Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP), Pakistan. In the CKNP there are ~700 glaciers, covering ~4600 km2, with widespread debris cover (518 km2). To assess meltwater volume we applied a distributed model able to describe both debris-covered and debris-free ice ablation. The model was calibrated using data collected in the field in the CKNP area and validated by comparison with ablation data collected in the field, independent of the data used in building the model. During 23 July\u20139 August 2011, the mean model-estimated ablation in the CKNP was 0.024 m w.e./ d in debris covered areas and 0.037 m w.e./ d in debris-free areas. We found a mean error of +0.01 m w.e. (corresponding to 2%) and a root-mean-square error equal to 0.09 m w.e. (17%). According to our model, the ablation areas of all the glaciers in the CKNP produced a water volume of 1.963 km3 during the study period. Finally, we performed several sensitivity tests for assessing the impact of the input data variations

Inventory of glaciers and glacial lakes of the central Karakoram National Park (Pakistan) as a contribution to know and manage mountain freshwater resource.

In this study, we reported valuable information on the cryosphere of the Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP, the largest protected area of Pakistan and the highest park all over the world). In fact, in addition to the glacier inventory, we also estimated the glacier volume and we modeled the amount of meltwater derived from glacier ice ablation during a 18-day summer period (23 July–9 August 2011, time window where also field melt measurements were performed thus enabling a crosscheck of the obtained results). Moreover, glacial lakes were considered as well; for these latter glacier features we also analyzed their potentially dangerous conditions. All these information are given considering the CKNP as a whole and in detail by dividing it into five basins (i.e. Shigar, Hunza, Shyok, Upper Indus and Gilgit). As regards the CKNP as a whole, 608 glaciers are found with a total area of 3682.1 ± 61.0 km2, ~35% of the CKNP area. Analyzing in detail the five basins included in the CKNP area, they reflect the overall conditions regarding glacier distribution per size class, terminus elevation, length, and thickness. The widest basin (for number of ice bodies, glacier extent and ice volume) is the Shigar basin, where the largest glaciers are present (among which Baltoro Glacier), and the smallest one is the Gilgit basin. Finally, the highest number of debris-covered glaciers is located in the Shyok basin (62 glaciers). During 18 days in summer 2011, we quantified a total water magnitude of 1.54 km3 derived from ice melting. Even if we considered a relatively short period, this water volume equals ~11% of the reservoir capacity of the Tarbela Dam. In addition to glacier information, we provided glacial lake occurrence, as these ephemeral water bodies can develop into actual glacial risk conditions, which makes it important to list them and to survey them over time. The information reported in this study would provide base for future monitoring of glacial lakes and GLOFs and for planning and prioritizing disaster mitigation efforts in the park. In fact, even if the Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes (PDGLs) identified in the park territory are only 2, they are located in a high vulnerable and fragile area and the recent history suggests us to survey over time these water bodies to avoid losses of human lives and destructions of villages and communities. Moreover, many other supraglacial lakes identified in the park area could develop into conditions of PDGLs thus suggesting to prosecute the lake monitoring and to develop early strategies for risk mitigations and disaster management