Why Not Both: A Qualitative Analysis of Alternative Outcomes

Scientific thinking relies on consideration of alternative possible outcomes to research. We considered whether 1. engaging with psychological research results—some of which were surprising—in a learning phase transferred to consideration of alternative outcomes for a different set of research studies in a test phase, and 2. whether transfer was heightened by predicting results before learning the actual outcomes (foresight), as opposed to indicating what one would have predicted after learning the actual outcomes (hindsight). One indication of transfer would be decreased confidence in the outcome one believed to be true, but we did not observe this trend. However, we did see evidence of transfer for a subset of participants: No participants in the learning phase provided reasons for alternative outcomes, but a sizable minority of participants, across both hindsight and foresight groups, did so in the test phase. We will discuss what factors distinguish participants who showed transfer

Carbohydrate knowledge, beliefs, and intended practices, of endurance athletes who report exercise-associated gastrointestinal symptoms

This study aimed to explore carbohydrate (CHO) knowledge, beliefs, and intended practices of endurance athletes who experience exercise-associated gastrointestinal symptoms (Ex-GIS) compared to those without Ex-GIS. A validated online questionnaire was completed by endurance athletes (n = 201) participating in >60 min of exercise that present with Ex-GIS (n = 137) or without (n = 64). Descriptive statistics were used for parametric and non-parametric data with appropriate significance tests. Associations between categorical data were assessed by Chi-square analysis, and post-hoc Bonferroni tests were applied when significant. A content analysis of open-ended responses was grouped into themes, and quantitative statistics were applied. Participants included runners (n = 114, 57%), triathletes (n = 43, 21%) and non-running sports (n = 44, 21%) who participate in recreational competitive (n = 74, 37%), recreational non-competitive (n = 64, 32%), or competitive regional, national, or international levels (n = 63, 31%). Athletes correctly categorized CHO (x̄ = 92–95%) and non-CHO (x̄ = 88–90%) food and drink sources. On a Likert scale of 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree) athletes typically agree or strongly agree that consuming CHO around key training sessions and competitions enhances athletic performance [median = 4 (IQR, 4–5)], and they intend to consume more CHO around exercise [median = 3 (IQR, 2–3)]. No differences in beliefs and intentions were found among athletes with or without Ex-GIS. To enhance athletic performance, most endurance athletes intend to consume more CHO around exercise. Adequate knowledge of CHO-containing food sources was apparent; however, specific CHO ingestion practices remain to be verified

Herschel observations of EXtraordinary Sources: Analysis of the full Herschel/HIFI molecular line survey of Sagittarius B2(N)

A sensitive broadband molecular line survey of the Sagittarius B2(N) star-forming region has been obtained with the HIFI instrument on the Herschel Space Observatory, offering the first high-spectral resolution look at this well-studied source in a wavelength region largely inaccessible from the ground (625-157 um). From the roughly 8,000 spectral features in the survey, a total of 72 isotopologues arising from 44 different molecules have been identified, ranging from light hydrides to complex organics, and arising from a variety of environments from cold and diffuse to hot and dense gas. We present an LTE model to the spectral signatures of each molecule, constraining the source sizes for hot core species with complementary SMA interferometric observations, and assuming that molecules with related functional group composition are cospatial. For each molecule, a single model is given to fit all of the emission and absorption features of that species across the entire 480-1910 GHz spectral range, accounting for multiple temperature and velocity components when needed to describe the spectrum. As with other HIFI surveys toward massive star forming regions, methanol is found to contribute more integrated line intensity to the spectrum than any other species. We discuss the molecular abundances derived for the hot core, where the local thermodynamic equilibrium approximation is generally found to describe the spectrum well, in comparison to abundances derived for the same molecules in the Orion KL region from a similar HIFI survey.Comment: Accepted to ApJ. 64 pages, 14 figures. Truncated abstrac

Analysis of the immunological biomarker profile during acute zika virus infection reveals the overexpression of CXCL10, a chemokine linked to neuronal damage

BACKGROUND Infection with Zika virus (ZIKV) manifests in a broad spectrum of disease ranging from mild illness to severe neurological complications and little is known about Zika immunopathogenesis. OBJECTIVES To define the immunologic biomarkers that correlate with acute ZIKV infection. METHODS We characterized the levels of circulating cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors in 54 infected patients of both genders at five different time points after symptom onset using microbeads multiplex immunoassay; comparison to 100 age-matched controls was performed for statistical analysis and data mining. FINDINGS ZIKV-infected patients present a striking systemic inflammatory response with high levels of pro-inflammatory mediators. Despite the strong inflammatory pattern, IL-1Ra and IL-4 are also induced during the acute infection. Interestingly, the inflammatory cytokines IL-1β, IL-13, IL-17, TNF-α, and IFN-γ; chemokines CXCL8, CCL2, CCL5; and the growth factor G-CSF, displayed a bimodal distribution accompanying viremia. While this is the first manuscript to document bimodal distributions of viremia in ZIKV infection, this has been documented in other viral infections, with a primary viremia peak during mild systemic disease and a secondary peak associated with distribution of the virus to organs and tissues. MAIN CONCLUSIONS Biomarker network analysis demonstrated distinct dynamics in concurrence with the bimodal viremia profiles at different time points during ZIKV infection. Such a robust cytokine and chemokine response has been associated with blood-brain barrier permeability and neuroinvasiveness in other flaviviral infections. High-dimensional data analysis further identified CXCL10, a chemokine involved in foetal neuron apoptosis and Guillain-Barré syndrome, as the most promising biomarker of acute ZIKV infection for potential clinical application. © 2018, Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz. All rights reserved

Common variants in Alzheimer’s disease and risk stratification by polygenic risk scores

Funder: Funder: Fundación bancaria ‘La Caixa’ Number: LCF/PR/PR16/51110003 Funder: Grifols SA Number: LCF/PR/PR16/51110003 Funder: European Union/EFPIA Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Number: 115975 Funder: JPco-fuND FP-829-029 Number: 733051061Genetic discoveries of Alzheimer's disease are the drivers of our understanding, and together with polygenetic risk stratification can contribute towards planning of feasible and efficient preventive and curative clinical trials. We first perform a large genetic association study by merging all available case-control datasets and by-proxy study results (discovery n = 409,435 and validation size n = 58,190). Here, we add six variants associated with Alzheimer's disease risk (near APP, CHRNE, PRKD3/NDUFAF7, PLCG2 and two exonic variants in the SHARPIN gene). Assessment of the polygenic risk score and stratifying by APOE reveal a 4 to 5.5 years difference in median age at onset of Alzheimer's disease patients in APOE ɛ4 carriers. Because of this study, the underlying mechanisms of APP can be studied to refine the amyloid cascade and the polygenic risk score provides a tool to select individuals at high risk of Alzheimer's disease

Multiancestry analysis of the HLA locus in Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases uncovers a shared adaptive immune response mediated by HLA-DRB1*04 subtypes

Across multiancestry groups, we analyzed Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) associations in over 176,000 individuals with Parkinson’s disease (PD) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) versus controls. We demonstrate that the two diseases share the same protective association at the HLA locus. HLA-specific fine-mapping showed that hierarchical protective effects of HLA-DRB1*04 subtypes best accounted for the association, strongest with HLA-DRB1*04:04 and HLA-DRB1*04:07, and intermediary with HLA-DRB1*04:01 and HLA-DRB1*04:03. The same signal was associated with decreased neurofibrillary tangles in postmortem brains and was associated with reduced tau levels in cerebrospinal fluid and to a lower extent with increased Aβ42. Protective HLA-DRB1*04 subtypes strongly bound the aggregation-prone tau PHF6 sequence, however only when acetylated at a lysine (K311), a common posttranslational modification central to tau aggregation. An HLA-DRB1*04-mediated adaptive immune response decreases PD and AD risks, potentially by acting against tau, offering the possibility of therapeutic avenues

Food avoidance in athletes: FODMAP foods on the list

We surveyed 910 athletes to assess behaviors towards self-selected food/ingredient avoidance to minimize gastrointestinal distress. Fifty-five percent eliminated at least one high FODMAP food/category, with up to 82.6% reporting symptom improvement. In athletes indicating that high FODMAP foods trigger GI symptoms, lactose (86.5%) was most frequently eliminated, followed by galacto-oligosaccharides (23.9%), fructose (23.0%), fructans (6.2%) and polyols (5.4%). Athletes avoid predominantly lactose and to a lesser extent other high FODMAP foods to reduce gastrointestinal distress.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

Consideration of Alternative Outcomes of Psychological Studies: Some Evidencefor Transfer

Scientific thinking relies on consideration of alternative possible outcomes to research. We considered whether 1. en-gaging with psychological research resultssome of which were surprisingin a learning phase transferred to considerationof alternative outcomes for a different set of research studies in a test phase, and 2. whether transfer was heightened bypredicting results before learning the actual outcomes (foresight), as opposed to indicating what one would have predictedafter learning the actual outcomes (hindsight). One indication of transfer would be decreased confidence in the outcomeone believed to be true, but we did not observe this trend. However, we did see evidence of transfer for a subset ofparticipants: No participants in the learning phase provided reasons for alternative outcomes, but a sizable minority ofparticipants, across both hindsight and foresight groups, did so in the test phase. We will discuss what factors distinguishparticipants who showed transfer

Learning to Consider Alternative Causes: Can Practice Make Us More Aware ofOur Imperfection?

In hindsight bias, upon learning an outcome, one is overly confident that one would have “known it all along.”Several researchers have been able to neutralize hindsight bias by prompting participants to consider alternative outcomes,but can we learn to avoid bias for novel outcomes, without prompting? Foresight participants read brief summaries of fivepsychology studies, and learned the mean performance of one group in each study. They estimated the other group’s perfor-mance—reflecting their sense of the effect size—stated possible causes, and then learned the other group’s mean performance.Hindsight participants learned both groups’ mean performance at the outset, then indicated what they would have estimated.We asked whether (1) participants would show superior estimation and/or consideration of alternative causes for novel stimulione week later, and (2) whether Foresight participants would benefit more given the feedback they received on the accuracy oftheir estimates

Does mental simulation of alternative research outcomes reduce bias in predicted results?

Can mental simulation of alternative research outcomes reduce bias? We attempted to extend Hirt et al.’s (2004) finding of debiasing when alternative basketball standings were easy to simulate and participants were low in need for structure (NFS). Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT) participants explained why taking notes by hand might improve test scores, then three groups of them explained different outcomes: Consider-opposite participants explained benefits of laptop notetaking, and two transfer groups explained either a plausible or an implausible outcome for unrelated research. None of the three groups differed from a baseline group in test score estimates or likelihood that taking notes by hand leads to higher test scores. However, low-NFS participants estimated marginally lower likelihood that notetaking by hand is superior, suggesting less bias to their initial explanation. We consider whether variation in participants’ psychology backgrounds might have overwhelmed effects, and discuss a replication with students taking introductory psychology