High resolution spatial variability in spring snowmelt for an Arctic shrub-tundra watershed

Arctic tundra environments are characterized by spatially heterogeneous end-of-winter snow cover because of high winds that erode, transport and deposit snow over the winter. This spatially variable end-of-winter snow cover subsequently influences the spatial and temporal variability of snowmelt and results in a patchy snowcover over the melt period. Documenting changes in both snow cover area (SCA) and snow water equivalent (SWE) during the spring melt is essential for understanding hydrological systems, but the lack of high-resolution SCA and SWE datasets that accurately capture micro-scale changes are not commonly available, and do not exist for the Canadian Arctic. This study applies high-resolution remote sensing measurements of SCA and SWE using a fixed-wing Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) to document snowcover changes over the snowmelt period for an Arctic tundra headwater catchment. Repeat measurements of SWE and SCA were obtained for four dominant land cover types (tundra, short shrub, tall shrub, and topographic drift) to provide observations of spatially distributed snowmelt patterns and basin-wide declines in SWE. High-resolution analysis of snowcover conditions over the melt reveal a strong relationship between land cover type, snow distribution, and snow ablation rates whereby shallow snowpacks found in tundra and short shrub regions feature rapid declines in SWE and SCA and became snow-free approximately 10 days earlier than deeper snowpacks. In contrast, tall shrub patches and topographic drift regions were characterized by large initial SWE values and featured a slow decline in SCA. Analysis of basin-wide declines in SCA and SWE reveal three distinct melt phases characterized by 1) low melt rates across a large area resulting in a minor change in SCA, but a very large decline in SWE with, 2) high melt rates resulting in drastic declines in both SCA and SWE, and 3) low melt rates over a small portion of the basin, resulting in little change to either SCA or SWE. The ability to capture high-resolution spatio-temporal changes to tundra snow cover furthers our understanding of the relative importance of various land cover types on the snowmelt timing and amount of runoff available to the hydrological system during the spring freshet

Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013

OBJECTIVE: Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden. METHODS: Key changes made under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections include: availability of a range of incidence calculation models and guidance for selecting a model; a shift to reporting the Bayesian median instead of the maximum likelihood estimate; procedures for comparison and validation against reported HIV and AIDS data; incorporation of national surveys as an integral part of the fitting and calibration procedure, allowing survey trends to inform the fit; improved antenatal clinic calibration procedures in countries without surveys; adjustment of national antiretroviral therapy reports used in the fitting to include only those aged 15–49 years; better estimates of mortality among people who inject drugs; and enhancements to speed fitting. RESULTS: The revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data. CONCLUSION: Spectrum and EPP continue to adapt to make better use of the existing data sources, incorporate new sources of information in their fitting and validation procedures, and correct for quantifiable biases in inputs as they are identified and understood. These adaptations provide countries with better calibrated estimates of incidence and prevalence, which increase epidemic understanding and provide a solid base for program and policy planning

Middle atmospheric ozone, nitrogen dioxide and nitrogen trioxide in 2002-2011: SD-WACCM simulations compared to GOMOS observations

Most of our understanding of the atmosphere is based on observations and their comparison with model simulations. In middle atmosphere studies it is common practice to use an approach, where the model dynamics are at least partly based on temperature and wind fields from an external meteorological model. In this work we test how closely satellite measurements of a few central trace gases agree with this kind of model simulation. We use collocated vertical profiles where each satellite measurement is compared to the closest model data. We compare profiles and distributions of O3, NO2 and NO3 from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars instrument (GOMOS) on the Envisat satellite with simulations by the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). GOMOS measurements are from nighttime. Our comparisons show that in the stratosphere outside the polar regions differences in ozone between WACCM and GOMOS are small, between 0 and 6%. The correlation of 5-day time series show a very high 0.9-0.95. In the tropical region 10° S-10° N below 10hPa WACCM values are up to 20% larger than GOMOS. In the Arctic below 6 hPa WACCM ozone values are up to 20% larger than GOMOS. In the mesosphere between 0.04 and 1hPa the WACCM is at most 20% smaller than GOMOS. Above the ozone minimum at 0.01hPa (or 80km) large differences are found between WACCM and GOMOS. The correlation can still be high, but at the second ozone peak the correlation falls strongly and the ozone abundance from WACCM is about 60% smaller than that from GOMOS. The total ozone columns (above 50hPa) of GOMOS and WACCM agree within ±2% except in the Arctic where WACCM is 10% larger than GOMOS. Outside the polar areas and in the validity region of GOMOS NO2 measurements (0.3-37 hPa) WACCM and GOMOS NO2 agree within -5 to +25% and the correlation is high (0.7-0.95) except in the upper stratosphere at the southern latitudes. In the polar areas, where solar particle precipitation and downward transport from the thermosphere enhance NO2 abundance, large differences up to -90% are found between WACCM and GOMOS NO2 and the correlation varies between 0.3 and 0.9. For NO3, we find that the WACCM and GOMOS difference is between -20 and 5% with a very high correlation of 0.7-0.95. We show that NO3 values strongly depend on temperature and the dependency can be fitted by the exponential function of temperature. The ratio of NO3 to O3 from WACCM and GOMOS closely follow the prediction from the equilibrium chemical theory. Abrupt temperature increases from sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are reflected as sudden enhancements of WACCM and GOMOS NO3 values

Impact of the January 2012 solar proton event on polar mesospheric clouds

We use data from the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere mission and simulations using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to determine the impact of the 23–30 January 2012 solar proton event (SPE) on polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) and mesospheric water vapor. We see a small heating and loss of ice mass on 26 January that is consistent with prior results but is not statistically significant. We also find a previously unreported but statistically significant ~10% increase in ice mass and in water vapor in the sublimation area in the model that occurs in the 7 to 14 days following the start of the event. The magnitude of the response to the January 2012 SPE is small compared to other sources of variability like gravity waves and planetary waves; however, sensitivity tests suggest that with larger SPEs this delayed increase in ice mass will increase, while there is little change in the loss of ice mass early in the event. The PMC response to SPEs in models is dependent on the gravity wave parameterization, and temperature anomalies from SPEs may be useful in evaluating and tuning gravity wave parameterizations

Relative Importance of Nitric Oxide Physical Drivers in the Lower Thermosphere

Nitric oxide (NO) observations from the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment and Student Nitric Oxide Explorer satellite instruments are investigated to determine the relative importance of drivers of short‐term NO variability. We study the variations of deseasonalized NO anomalies by removing a climatology, which explains between approximately 70% and 90% of the total NO budget, and relate them to variability in geomagnetic activity and solar radiation. Throughout the lower thermosphere geomagnetic activity is the dominant process at high latitudes, while in the equatorial region solar radiation is the primary source of short‐term NO changes. Consistent results are obtained on estimated geomagnetic and radiation contributions of NO variations in the two data sets, which are nearly a decade apart in time. The analysis presented here can be applied to model simulations of NO to investigate the accuracy of the parametrized physical drivers

Quantification of the SF₆ lifetime based on mesospheric loss measured in the stratospheric polar vortex

Sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) is a greenhouse gas with one of the highest radiative efficiencies in the atmosphere as well as an important indicator of transport time scales in the stratosphere. The current widely used estimate of the atmospheric lifetime of SF₆ is 3200 years. In this study we use in situ measurements in the 2000 Arctic polar vortex that sampled air with up to 50% SF₆ loss to calculate an SF₆ lifetime. Comparison of these measurements with output from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) shows that WACCM transport into the vortex is accurate and that an important SF₆ loss mechanism, believed to be electron attachment, is missing in the model. Based on the measurements and estimates of the size of the vortex, we calculate an SF₆ lifetime of 850 years with an uncertainty range of 580–1400 years. The amount of SF₆ loss is shown to be consistent with that of HFC‐227ea, which has a lifetime of 670–780 years, adding independent support to our new SF₆ lifetime estimate. Based on the revised lifetime the global warming potential of SF₆ will decrease only slightly for short time horizons (<100 years) but will decrease substantially for time horizons longer than 2000 years. Also, the use of SF6 measurements as an indicator of transport time scales in the stratosphere clearly must account for potential influence from polar vortex air

Solar cycle response and long-term trends in the mesospheric metal layers

The meteoric metal layers (Na, Fe, and K)—which form as a result of the ablation of incoming meteors—act as unique tracers for chemical and dynamical processes that occur within the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere region. In this work, we examine whether these metal layers are sensitive indicators of decadal long-term changes within the upper atmosphere. Output from a whole-atmosphere climate model is used to assess the response of the Na, K, and Fe layers across a 50 year period (1955–2005). At short timescales, the K layer has previously been shown to exhibit a very different seasonal behavior compared to the other metals. Here we show that this unusual behavior is also exhibited at longer timescales (both the ~11 year solar cycle and 50 year periods), where K displays a much more pronounced response to atmospheric temperature changes than either Na or Fe. The contrasting solar cycle behavior of the K and Na layers predicted by the model is confirmed using satellite and lidar observations for the period 2004–2013

Global investigation of the Mg atom and ion layers using SCIAMACHY/Envisat observations between 70 and 150 km altitude and WACCM-Mg model results

Mg and Mg+ concentration fields in the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere (UMLT) region are retrieved from SCIAMACHY/Envisat limb measurements of Mg and Mg+ dayglow emissions using a 2-D tomographic retrieval approach. The time series of monthly mean Mg and Mg+ number density and vertical column density in different latitudinal regions are presented. Data from the limb mesosphere–thermosphere mode of SCIAMACHY/Envisat are used, which cover the 50 to 150 km altitude region with a vertical sampling of ≈3.3 km and latitudes up to 82°. The high latitudes are not observed in the winter months, because there is no dayglow emission during polar night. The measurements were performed every 14 days from mid-2008 until April 2012. Mg profiles show a peak at around 90 km altitude with a density between 750 cm−3 and 1500 cm−3. Mg does not show strong seasonal variation at latitudes below 40°. For higher latitudes the density is lower and only in the Northern Hemisphere a seasonal cycle with a summer minimum is observed. The Mg+ peak occurs 5–15 km above the neutral Mg peak altitude. These ions have a significant seasonal cycle with a summer maximum in both hemispheres at mid and high latitudes. The strongest seasonal variations of Mg+ are observed at latitudes between 20 and 40° and the density at the peak altitude ranges from 500 cm−3 to 4000 cm−3. The peak altitude of the ions shows a latitudinal dependence with a maximum at mid latitudes that is up to 10 km higher than the peak altitude at the equator. The SCIAMACHY measurements are compared to other measurements and WACCM model results. The WACCM results show a significant seasonal variability for Mg with a summer minimum, which is more clearly pronounced than for SCIAMACHY, and globally a higher peak density than the SCIAMACHY results. Although the peak density of both is not in agreement, the vertical column density agrees well, because SCIAMACHY and WACCM profiles have different widths. The agreement between SCIAMACHY and WACCM results is much better for Mg+ with both showing the same seasonality and similar peak density. However, there are also minor differences, e.g. WACCM showing a nearly constant altitude of the Mg+ layer's peak density for all latitudes and seasons

Social Mpower: An Educational Game for Energy Efficiency

A number of serious games have been developed for energy systems that act as an educational tool and help energy consumers to better understand concepts such as resource allocation, electricity prices and grid sustainability. In such gamified environments, players use technology to solve environmental problems including greener environment, optimised energy and water infrastructure, sustainable resources and reduced energy use. Social Mpower game is a representation of an autonomous energy community for local power generation and distribution in which the participants have to avoid a collective blackout by individually reducing their energy consumption by synchronising and coordinating their actions. Our experimental hypothesis is that collective awareness can be enhanced by appropriate features of the game interface, and therefore to increase the opportunities and prospects for successful collective action (e.g to avoid a blackout)

Global volcanic aerosol properties derived from emissions, 1990-2014, using CESM1(WACCM)

Accurate representation of global stratospheric aerosols from volcanic and non-volcanic sulfur emissions is key to understanding the cooling effects and ozone-losses that may be linked to volcanic activity. Attribution of climate variability to volcanic activity is of particular interest in relation to the post-2000 slowing in the rate of global average temperature increases. We have compiled a database of volcanic SO2 emissions and plume altitudes for eruptions from 1990 to 2014, and developed a new prognostic capability for simulating stratospheric sulfate aerosols in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We used these combined with other non-volcanic emissions of sulfur sources to reconstruct global aerosol properties from 1990 to 2014. Our calculations show remarkable agreement with ground-based lidar observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD), and with in situ measurements of stratospheric aerosol surface area density (SAD). These properties are key parameters in calculating the radiative and chemical effects of stratospheric aerosols. Our SAOD calculations represent a clear improvement over available satellite-based analyses, which generally ignore aerosol extinction below 15 km, a region that can contain the vast majority of stratospheric aerosol extinction at mid- and high-latitudes. Our SAD calculations greatly improve on that provided for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which misses about 60% of the SAD measured in situ on average during both volcanically active and volcanically quiescent periods