A choice experiment application to estimate willingness to pay for controlling excessive recreational fishing demand at the Sundays River Estuary, South Africa

The Sundays River Estuary, situated in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, has excessive recreational demand for estuarine services, specifically recreational fishing. The estuary has been over-fished, putting its sustainability at risk. Various management interventions may be required in order to save it, but how is this to be done without reducing welfare? The main aim of this paper is twofold: first, to assess and comprehend the economic value of the estuarine resources at stake; and, second, to propose policy measures to redress the situation (excessive demand, specifically recreational fishing). An application of a choice experiment reveals that the physical size of fish stocks is a very important predictor of recreational choice at the Sundays River Estuary, and it is recommended that demand be curtailed through an increase in the boat license fee for using the estuary of ZAR174 per annum.Keywords: Estuary, demand management, recreational attributes, recreational fishery, choice experimen

Case report: Pathological fracture of the manubrium sternum of unknown aetiology

A 26-year-old male professional football player presented with sternal discomfort after performing upper limb exercises. X-rays and a computed tomography (CT) scan of the manubrium sternum indicated an area of lysis with a fracture line. An MRI showed bone marrow oedema as well as presternal and retrosternal soft tissue mass. An incision biopsy of the site and the soft tissue were performed under general anaesthesia. Additional investigations included a bone marrow biopsy from the left iliac crest, a full blood count and C-reactive protein test, all of which were normal. The morphological features were mostly in keeping with a healing fracture site, and the investigations revealed no evidence of a tumour or structural abnormality. In bone injuries, where the level of force is not commensurate with the degree of injury or where the anatomical area and other factors in the presentation are unusual, they require careful investigation. Treating physicians should actively exclude the multitude of potential causes when investigating pathological fractures.Keywords: pathology, manubrium, stress fractur

Improving navigability on the Kromme River Estuary: A choice experiment application

Navigation of estuaries is a vitally important aspect of boating recreation in South Africa and elsewhere. This paper uses a choice experiment to estimate recreation values of the Kromme River Estuary, a popular estuary along South Africa’s east coast. This valuation methodology allows for the identification of preferred management strategies through the trade-offs made by estuarine recreational users. It is found that the level of navigability is the most important predictor of user choice, and argued that more attention needs to be paid to options for improving navigability and methods to fund these interventions. It is concluded that an increase in licence fee of ZAR402 would improve recreational value.Keywords: estuary, recreational attributes, navigability, choice experiment, willingness-to-pay, conditional logit model, random parameters logit mode

Decomposing Intraday Dependence in Currency Markets: Evidence from the AUD/USD Spot Market

The local Hurst exponent, a measure employed to detect the presence of dependence in a time series, may also be used to investigate the source of intraday variation observed in the returns in foreign exchange markets. Given that changes in the local Hurst exponent may be due to either a time-varying range, or standard deviation, or both of these simultaneously, values for the range, standard deviation and local Hurst exponent are recorded and analyzed separately. To illustrate this approach, a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian dollar/U.S. dollar provides evidence of the returns distribution across the 24-hour trading day with time-varying dependence and volatility clearly aligning with the opening and closing of markets. This variation is attributed to the effects of liquidity and the price-discovery actions of dealers.Comment: 3 Figures, 3 Tables, 28 page

Estimation of conditional laws given an extreme component

Let $(X,Y)$ be a bivariate random vector. The estimation of a probability of the form $P(Y\leq y \mid X >t)$ is challenging when $t$ is large, and a fruitful approach consists in studying, if it exists, the limiting conditional distribution of the random vector $(X,Y)$, suitably normalized, given that $X$ is large. There already exists a wide literature on bivariate models for which this limiting distribution exists. In this paper, a statistical analysis of this problem is done. Estimators of the limiting distribution (which is assumed to exist) and the normalizing functions are provided, as well as an estimator of the conditional quantile function when the conditioning event is extreme. Consistency of the estimators is proved and a functional central limit theorem for the estimator of the limiting distribution is obtained. The small sample behavior of the estimator of the conditional quantile function is illustrated through simulations.Comment: 32 pages, 5 figur

Failure Probability Under Parameter Uncertainty

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications

Spatial modelling framework for the characterisation of rainfall extremes at different durations and under climate change

This paper describes a statistical modelling framework for the characterisation of rainfall extremes over a region of interest. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach, the data are assumed to follow the generalised extreme value distribution, whose parameters are modelled as spatial Gaussian processes in the latent process layer. We also integrate a parametric relationship between precipitation maxima accumulated over increasing durations. The inference of the model parameters is thus improved by pooling information across both space and accumulation duration. In addition, we propose and investigate two different approaches for the integration of daily and sub-daily rainfall data within the framework. We also demonstrate how information from a regional climate model can be integrated to enable the investigation of future projections of extreme rainfall characteristics. We apply the proposed methodology to precipitation datasets from two large-scale study regions located on the east coast of Australia. The models are fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations, and we present estimated model parameters and posterior inferences of return levels at various durations and sites of interest. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework in spatially extrapolating the inference to locations other than those at which direct rainfall measurements are available. We also provide comparisons between rainfall extremes at various durations obtained for the current climate and those based on future projections from a regional climate model. Both methods proposed for the integration of daily and sub-daily records were found to yield similar results in terms of model performance and computational requirements

The Transcription Factor SOX18 Regulates the Expression of Matrix Metalloproteinase 7 and Guidance Molecules in Human Endothelial Cells

Mutations in the transcription factor SOX18 are responsible for specific cardiovascular defects in humans and mice. In order to gain insight into the molecular basis of its action, we identified target genes of SOX18 and analyzed one, MMP7, in detail.SOX18 was expressed in HUVEC using a recombinant adenoviral vector and the altered gene expression profile was analyzed using microarrays. Expression of several regulated candidate SOX18 target genes was verified by real-time PCR. Knock-down of SOX18 using RNA interference was then used to confirm the effect of the transcription factor on selected genes that included the guidance molecules ephrin B2 and semaphorin 3G. One gene, MMP7, was chosen for further analysis, including detailed promoter studies using reporter gene assays, electrophoretic mobility shift analysis and chromatin-immunoprecipitation, revealing that it responds directly to SOX18. Immunohistochemical analysis demonstrated the co-expression of SOX18 and MMP7 in blood vessels of human skin.The identification of MMP7 as a direct SOX18 target gene as well as other potential candidates including guidance molecules provides a molecular basis for the proposed function of this transcription factor in the regulation of vessel formation