A weibull approach for improving climate model projections of tropical cyclone wind-speed distributions

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Open Access ArticleReliable estimates of future changes in extreme weather phenomena, such as tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds, are critical for climate change impact assessments and the development of appropriate adaptation strategies. However, global and regional climate model outputs are often too coarse for direct use in these applications, with variables such as wind speed having truncated probability distributions compared to those of observations. This poses two problems: How canmodel-simulated variables best be adjusted to make themmore realistic? And how can such adjustments be used to make more reliable predictions of future changes in their distribution? This study investigates North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds from observations (1950- 2010) and regional climate model simulations (1995-2005 and 2045-55 at 12- and 36-km spatial resolutions). The wind speed distributions in these datasets are well represented by the Weibull distribution, albeit with different scale and shape parameters. A power-law transfer function is used to recalibrate the Weibull variables and obtain future projections of wind speeds. Two different strategies, bias correction and change factor, are tested by using 36-km model data to predict future 12-km model data (pseudo-observations). The strategies are also applied to the observations to obtain likely predictions of the future distributions of wind speeds. The strategies yield similar predictions of likely changes in the fraction of events within Saffir-Simpson categories-for example, an increase from 21% (1995-2005) to 27%-37% (2045-55) for category 3 or above events and an increase from 1.6% (1995- 2005) to 2.8%-9.8% (2045-55) for category 5 events. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.Acknowledgments. Support for this work was provided by theWillis Research Network, the Research Program to Secure Energy for America, NSF EASM Grant S1048841, and the NCARWeather and Climate Assessment Science Program. We thank Sherrie Fredrick for extracting data, and Cindy Bruyère, James Done, and Ben Youngman for productive discussions that enhanced this research. We also thank Dr. Adam Monahan and one anonymous reviewer for their insightful comments and suggestions

Whipworm and roundworm infections

Trichuriasis and ascariasis are neglected tropical diseases caused by the gastrointestinal dwelling nematodes Trichuris trichiura (a whipworm) and Ascaris lumbricoides (a roundworm), respectively. Both parasites are staggeringly prevalent, particularly in tropical and subtropical areas, and are associated with substantial morbidity. Infection is initiated by ingestion of infective eggs, which hatch in the intestine. Thereafter, T. trichiura larvae moult within intestinal epithelial cells, with adult worms embedded in a partially intracellular niche in the large intestine, whereas A. lumbricoides larvae penetrate the gut mucosa and migrate through the liver and lungs before returning to the lumen of the small intestine, where adult worms dwell. Both species elicit type 2 anti-parasite immunity. Diagnosis is typically based on clinical presentation (gastrointestinal symptoms and inflammation) and the detection of eggs or parasite DNA in the faeces. Prevention and treatment strategies rely on periodic mass drug administration (generally with albendazole or mebendazole) to at-risk populations and improvements in water, sanitation and hygiene. The effectiveness of drug treatment is very high for A. lumbricoides infections, whereas cure rates for T. trichiura infections are low. Novel anthelminthic drugs are needed, together with vaccine development and tools for diagnosis and assessment of parasite control in the field

Sequential Effects in Judgements of Attractiveness: The Influences of Face Race and Sex

In perceptual decision-making, a person’s response on a given trial is influenced by their response on the immediately preceding trial. This sequential effect was initially demonstrated in psychophysical tasks, but has now been found in more complex, real-world judgements. The similarity of the current and previous stimuli determines the nature of the effect, with more similar items producing assimilation in judgements, while less similarity can cause a contrast effect. Previous research found assimilation in ratings of facial attractiveness, and here, we investigated whether this effect is influenced by the social categories of the faces presented. Over three experiments, participants rated the attractiveness of own- (White) and other-race (Chinese) faces of both sexes that appeared successively. Through blocking trials by race (Experiment 1), sex (Experiment 2), or both dimensions (Experiment 3), we could examine how sequential judgements were altered by the salience of different social categories in face sequences. For sequences that varied in sex alone, own-race faces showed significantly less opposite-sex assimilation (male and female faces perceived as dissimilar), while other-race faces showed equal assimilation for opposite- and same-sex sequences (male and female faces were not differentiated). For sequences that varied in race alone, categorisation by race resulted in no opposite-race assimilation for either sex of face (White and Chinese faces perceived as dissimilar). For sequences that varied in both race and sex, same-category assimilation was significantly greater than opposite-category. Our results suggest that the race of a face represents a superordinate category relative to sex. These findings demonstrate the importance of social categories when considering sequential judgements of faces, and also highlight a novel approach for investigating how multiple social dimensions interact during decision-making

Temporal perception deficits in schizophrenia: integration is the problem, not deployment of attentions

Patients with schizophrenia are known to have impairments in sensory processing. In order to understand the specific temporal perception deficits of schizophrenia, we investigated and determined to what extent impairments in temporal integration can be dissociated from attention deployment using Attentional Blink (AB). Our findings showed that there was no evident deficit in the deployment of attention in patients with schizophrenia. However, patients showed an increased temporal integration deficit within a hundred-millisecond timescale. The degree of such integration dysfunction was correlated with the clinical manifestations of schizophrenia. There was no difference between individuals with/without schizotypal personality disorder in temporal integration. Differently from previous studies using the AB, we did not find a significant impairment in deployment of attention in schizophrenia. Instead, we used both theoretical and empirical approaches to show that previous findings (using the suppression ratio to correct for the baseline difference) produced a systematic exaggeration of the attention deficits. Instead, we modulated the perceptual difficulty of the task to bring the baseline levels of target detection between the groups into closer alignment. We found that the integration dysfunction rather than deployment of attention is clinically relevant, and thus should be an additional focus of research in schizophrenia

A survey of performance enhancement of transmission control protocol (TCP) in wireless ad hoc networks

This Article is provided by the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund - Copyright @ 2011 Springer OpenTransmission control protocol (TCP), which provides reliable end-to-end data delivery, performs well in traditional wired network environments, while in wireless ad hoc networks, it does not perform well. Compared to wired networks, wireless ad hoc networks have some specific characteristics such as node mobility and a shared medium. Owing to these specific characteristics of wireless ad hoc networks, TCP faces particular problems with, for example, route failure, channel contention and high bit error rates. These factors are responsible for the performance degradation of TCP in wireless ad hoc networks. The research community has produced a wide range of proposals to improve the performance of TCP in wireless ad hoc networks. This article presents a survey of these proposals (approaches). A classification of TCP improvement proposals for wireless ad hoc networks is presented, which makes it easy to compare the proposals falling under the same category. Tables which summarize the approaches for quick overview are provided. Possible directions for further improvements in this area are suggested in the conclusions. The aim of the article is to enable the reader to quickly acquire an overview of the state of TCP in wireless ad hoc networks.This study is partly funded by Kohat University of Science & Technology (KUST), Pakistan, and the Higher Education Commission, Pakistan

Be SMART:examining the experience of implementing the NHS Health Check in UK primary care

Background: The NHS Health Check was designed by UK Department of Health to address increased prevalence of cardiovascular disease by identifying risk levels and facilitating behaviour change. It constituted biomedical testing, personalised advice and lifestyle support. The objective of the study was to explore Health Care Professionals' (HCPs) and patients' experiences of delivering and receiving the NHS Health Check in an inner-city region of England. Methods: Patients and HCPs in primary care were interviewed using semi-structured schedules. Data were analysed using Thematic Analysis. Results: Four themes were identified. Firstly, Health Check as a test of 'roadworthiness' for people. The roadworthiness metaphor resonated with some patients but it signified a passive stance toward illness. Some patients described the check as useful in the theme, Health check as revelatory. HCPs found visual aids demonstrating levels of salt/fat/sugar in everyday foods and a 'traffic light' tape measure helpful in communicating such 'revelations' with patients. Being SMART and following the protocolrevealed that few HCPs used SMART goals and few patients spoke of them. HCPs require training to understand their rationale compared with traditional advice-giving. The need for further follow-up revealed disparity in follow-ups and patients were not systematically monitored over time. Conclusions: HCPs' training needs to include the use and evidence of the effectiveness of SMART goals in changing health behaviours. The significance of fidelity to protocol needs to be communicated to HCPs and commissioners to ensure consistency. Monitoring and measurement of follow-up, e.g., tracking of referrals, need to be resourced to provide evidence of the success of the NHS Health Check in terms of healthier lifestyles and reduced CVD risk

Individual Predisposition, Household Clustering and Risk Factors for Human Infection with Ascaris lumbricoides: New Epidemiological Insights

Numerous analyses have found that people infected with roundworm (Ascaris lumbricoides) are predisposed to harbor either many or few worms. Members of the same household also tend to harbor similar numbers of worms. These phenomena are called individual predisposition and household clustering respectively. In this article, we use Bayesian methods to fit a statistical model to worm count data collected from a cohort of participants at baseline and after two rounds of re-infection following curative treatment. We show that individual predisposition is extremely weak once the clustering effect of the household has been accounted for. This suggests that predisposition is of limited importance to the epidemiology of roundworm infection. Further, we show that over half of the variability in average worm counts among households is explained by household risk factors. This implies that exposures to infectious roundworm eggs shared by household members are important determinants of household clustering. We argue that these results support the hypothesis proposed in the literature that the household is a key focus of roundworm transmission

Randomized trials, generalizability, and meta-analysis: Graphical insights for binary outcomes

BACKGROUND: Randomized trials stochastically answer the question. "What would be the effect of treatment on outcome if one turned back the clock and switched treatments in the given population?" Generalizations to other subjects are reliable only if the particular trial is performed on a random sample of the target population. By considering an unobserved binary variable, we graphically investigate how randomized trials can also stochastically answer the question, "What would be the effect of treatment on outcome in a population with a possibly different distribution of an unobserved binary baseline variable that does not interact with treatment in its effect on outcome?" METHOD: For three different outcome measures, absolute difference (DIF), relative risk (RR), and odds ratio (OR), we constructed a modified BK-Plot under the assumption that treatment has the same effect on outcome if either all or no subjects had a given level of the unobserved binary variable. (A BK-Plot shows the effect of an unobserved binary covariate on a binary outcome in two treatment groups; it was originally developed to explain Simpsons's paradox.) RESULTS: For DIF and RR, but not OR, the BK-Plot shows that the estimated treatment effect is invariant to the fraction of subjects with an unobserved binary variable at a given level. CONCLUSION: The BK-Plot provides a simple method to understand generalizability in randomized trials. Meta-analyses of randomized trials with a binary outcome that are based on DIF or RR, but not OR, will avoid bias from an unobserved covariate that does not interact with treatment in its effect on outcome