Solar Magnetic Feature Detection and Tracking for Space Weather Monitoring

We present an automated system for detecting, tracking, and cataloging emerging active regions throughout their evolution and decay using SOHO Michelson Doppler Interferometer (MDI) magnetograms. The SolarMonitor Active Region Tracking (SMART) algorithm relies on consecutive image differencing to remove both quiet-Sun and transient magnetic features, and region-growing techniques to group flux concentrations into classifiable features. We determine magnetic properties such as region size, total flux, flux imbalance, flux emergence rate, Schrijver's R-value, R* (a modified version of R), and Falconer's measurement of non-potentiality. A persistence algorithm is used to associate developed active regions with emerging flux regions in previous measurements, and to track regions beyond the limb through multiple solar rotations. We find that the total number and area of magnetic regions on disk vary with the sunspot cycle. While sunspot numbers are a proxy to the solar magnetic field, SMART offers a direct diagnostic of the surface magnetic field and its variation over timescale of hours to years. SMART will form the basis of the active region extraction and tracking algorithm for the Heliophysics Integrated Observatory (HELIO)

Reconstructing the 3-D Trajectories of CMEs in the Inner Heliosphere

A method for the full three-dimensional (3-D) reconstruction of the trajectories of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) data is presented. Four CMEs that were simultaneously observed by the inner and outer coronagraphs (COR1 and 2) of the Ahead and Behind STEREO satellites were analysed. These observations were used to derive CME trajectories in 3-D out to ~15Rsun. The reconstructions using COR1/2 data support a radial propagation model. Assuming pseudo-radial propagation at large distances from the Sun (15-240Rsun), the CME positions were extrapolated into the Heliospheric Imager (HI) field-of-view. We estimated the CME velocities in the different fields-of-view. It was found that CMEs slower than the solar wind were accelerated, while CMEs faster than the solar wind were decelerated, with both tending to the solar wind velocity.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, 1 appendi

Environmental associations of abundance-weighted functional traits in Australian plant communities

Predictions of how vegetation responds to spatial and temporal differences in climate rely on established links with plant functional traits and vegetation types that can be encoded into Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. Individual traits have been linked to climate at species level and at community level within regions. However, a recent global assessment of aggregated community level traits found unexpectedly weak links with macroclimate, bringing into question broadscale trait–climate associations and implicating local-scale environmental differences in the filtering of communities. To further evaluate patterns in light of these somewhat contradictory results, we quantified the power of macro-environmental variables to explain aggregated plant community traits, taking advantage of new trait data for leaf area, plant height and seed mass combined with a national survey that records cover-abundance using consistent methods for a large number of plots across Australia. In contrast to the global study, we found that abundance-weighted community mean and variance of leaf area and maximum height were correlated with macroclimate. Height and leaf area were highest in wet (especially warm, wet) environments, with actual evapotranspiration explaining 30% of variation in leaf area and 26% in maximum height. Seed mass was weakly related to environment, with no variable explaining more than 5% of variance. Considering all three traits together in a redundancy analysis, the complete set of environmental variables explained 43% of variation in site-mean traits and 29% of within-site trait variance. While significant trait variation remains unexplained, the trait–environment relationships reported here suggest climatically-driven filtering plays a strong role in assembling these vegetation communities. Regional assessments using standardised species abundances can therefore be used to predict aspects of vegetation function. Our quantification of plant community trait patterns along macroclimatic gradients at continental scale thereby contributes a much-needed functional basis for Australian vegetation.Greg R. Guerin, Rachael V. Gallagher, Ian J. Wright, Samuel C. Andrew, Daniel S. Falster, Elizabeth Wenk, Samantha E.M. Munroe, Andrew J. Lowe, Ben Sparro

Search for the Proton Decay Mode proton to neutrino K+ in Soudan 2

We have searched for the proton decay mode proton to neutrino K+ using the one-kiloton Soudan 2 high resolution calorimeter. Contained events obtained from a 3.56 kiloton-year fiducial exposure through June 1997 are examined for occurrence of a visible K+ track which decays at rest into mu+ nu or pi+ pi0. We found one candidate event consistent with background, yielding a limit, tau/B > 4.3 10^{31} years at 90% CL with no background subtraction.Comment: 13 pages, Latex, 3 tables and 3 figures, Accepted by Physics Letters

Extreme Ultra-Violet Spectroscopy of the Lower Solar Atmosphere During Solar Flares

The extreme ultraviolet portion of the solar spectrum contains a wealth of diagnostic tools for probing the lower solar atmosphere in response to an injection of energy, particularly during the impulsive phase of solar flares. These include temperature and density sensitive line ratios, Doppler shifted emission lines and nonthermal broadening, abundance measurements, differential emission measure profiles, and continuum temperatures and energetics, among others. In this paper I shall review some of the advances made in recent years using these techniques, focusing primarily on studies that have utilized data from Hinode/EIS and SDO/EVE, while also providing some historical background and a summary of future spectroscopic instrumentation.Comment: 34 pages, 8 figures. Submitted to Solar Physics as part of the Topical Issue on Solar and Stellar Flare

The potential for tree planting strategies to reduce local and regional ecosystem impacts of agricultural ammonia emissions

Trees are very effective at capturing both gaseous and particulate pollutants from the atmosphere. But while studies have often focussed on PM and NOx in the urban environment, little research has been carried out on the tree effect of capturing gaseous emissions of ammonia in the rural landscape. To examine the removal or scavenging of ammonia by trees a long-range atmospheric model (FRAME) was used to compare two strategies that could be used in emission reduction policies anywhere in the world where nitrogen pollution from agriculture is a problem. One strategy was to reduce the emission source strength of livestock management systems by implementing two ‘tree-capture’ systems scenarios – tree belts downwind of housing and managing livestock under trees. This emission reduction can be described as an ‘on-farm’ emission reduction policy, as ammonia is ‘stopped’ from dispersion outside the farm boundaries. The second strategy was to apply an afforestation policy targeting areas of high ammonia emission through two planting scenarios of increasing afforestation by 25% and 50%. Both strategies use trees with the aim of intercepting NH3 emissions to protect semi-natural areas. Scenarios for on-farm emission reductions showed national reductions in nitrogen deposition to semi-natural areas of 0.14% (0.2 kt N–NHx) to 2.2% (3.15 kt N–NHx). Scenarios mitigating emissions from cattle and pig housing gave the highest reductions. The afforestation strategy showed national reductions of 6% (8.4 kt N–NHx) to 11% (15.7 kt N–NHx) for 25% and 50% afforestation scenarios respectively. Increased capture by the planted trees also showed an added benefit of reducing long range effects including a decrease in wet deposition up to 3.7 kt N–NHx (4.6%) and a decrease in export from the UK up to 8.3 kt N–NHx (6.8%)

A comparison of flare forecasting methods. II. Benchmarks, metrics and performance results for operational solar flare forecasting systems

YesSolar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the forecasting performs; crucially, we must ask how to rigorously measure performance in order to critically gauge any improvements. Building upon earlier-developed methodology (Barnes et al. 2016, Paper I), international representatives of regional warning centers and research facilities assembled in 2017 at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan to – for the first time – directly compare the performance of operational solar flare forecasting methods. Multiple quantitative evaluation metrics are employed, with focus and discussion on evaluation methodologies given the restrictions of operational forecasting. Numerous methods performed consistently above the “no skill” level, although which method scored top marks is decisively a function of flare event definition and the metric used; there was no single winner. Following in this paper series we ask why the performances differ by examining implementation details (Leka et al. 2019, Paper III), and then we present a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors in (Park et al. 2019, Paper IV). With these works, this team presents a well-defined and robust methodology for evaluating solar flare forecasting methods in both research and operational frameworks, and today’s performance benchmarks against which improvements and new methods may be compared

Use of SMS texts for facilitating access to online alcohol interventions: a feasibility study

A41 Use of SMS texts for facilitating access to online alcohol interventions: a feasibility study In: Addiction Science & Clinical Practice 2017, 12(Suppl 1): A4

Potentially inappropriate medication use in institutionalized older adults according to the Beers Criteria

The need for specific care, coupled with new family arrangements, has contributed to the increasing institutionalization of elderly members. The purpose of this study was to evaluate drug use by institutionalized older adults according to Beers Criteria. This prospective, longitudinal study was conducted in the three non-profit long-stay geriatric care institutions of Campo Grande, in the Central-West region of Brazil. All subjects aged 60 years and above on November 2011 were included and followed until November 2012. Eighteen subjects were excluded and the final sample consisted of 133 individuals aged 60 to 113 years. Overall, 212 medications were used at geriatric care institution A, 532 at B, and 1329 at C. Thirty-four drugs were inappropriately prescribed 89 times at geriatric care institution A (41.98%), 49 prescribed 177 times at B (33.27%), and 91 prescribed 461 times at C (34.68%). Statistical differences in the inappropriate drug use were found between genders (p=0.007). The most commonly used potentially inappropriate medication were first-generation antihistamines (15.34%). There was a high frequency in the use of potentially inappropriate medications which can initiate marked side effects and may compromise the fragile health of institutionalized elderly. Thus, adopting the Beers Criteria in prescribing medication contributes to minimize adverse reactions and drug interactions