Reverse Engineering Financial Markets with Majority and Minority Games Using Genetic Algorithms

Using virtual stock markets with artificial interacting software investors, aka agent-based models, we present a method to reverse engineer real-world financial time series. We model financial markets as made of a large number of interacting boundedly rational agents. By optimizing the similarity between the actual data and that generated by the reconstructed virtual stock market, we obtain parameters and strategies, which reveal some of the inner workings of the target stock market. We validate our approach by out-of-sample predictions of directional moves of the Nasdaq Composite Inde

Nanomechanics of the endothelial glycocalyx in experimental sepsis

The endothelial glycocalyx (eGC), a carbohydrate-rich layer lining the luminal side of the endothelium, regulates vascular adhesiveness and permeability. Although central to the pathophysiology of vascular barrier dysfunction in sepsis, glycocalyx damage has been generally understudied, in part because of the aberrancy of in vitro preparations and its degradation during tissue handling. The aim of this study was to analyze inflammation-induced damage of the eGC on living endothelial cells by atomic-force microscopy (AFM) nanoindentation technique. AFM revealed the existence of a mature eGC on the luminal endothelial surface of freshly isolated rodent aorta preparations ex vivo, as well as on cultured human pulmonary microvascular endothelial cells (HPMEC) in vitro. AFM detected a marked reduction in glycocalyx thickness (266 ± 12 vs. 137 ± 17 nm, P<0.0001) and stiffness (0.34 ± 0.03 vs. 0.21 ± 0.01 pN/mn, P<0.0001) in septic mice (1 mg E. coli lipopolysaccharides (LPS)/kg BW i.p.) compared to controls. Corresponding in vitro experiments revealed that sepsis-associated mediators, such as thrombin, LPS or Tumor Necrosis Factor-α alone were sufficient to rapidly decrease eGC thickness (-50%, all P<0.0001) and stiffness (-20% P<0.0001) on HPMEC. In summary, AFM nanoindentation is a promising novel approach to uncover mechanisms involved in deterioration and refurbishment of the eGC in sepsis

Evolution of the fishtail-effect in pure and Ag-doped MG-YBCO

We report on magnetic measurements carried out in a textured YBa$_2$Cu$_3$O$_{7-\delta}$ and YBa$_2$(Cu$_{1-x}$Ag$_x$)$_3$O$_{7-\delta}$ (at $x \approx$ 0.02) crystals. The so-called fishtail-effect (FE) or second magnetization peak has been observed in a wide temperature range 0.4~$<T/T_c<$~0.8 for $\textbf{H}\parallel c$. The origin of the FE arises for the competition between surface barrier and bulk pinning. This is confirmed in a non-monotonically behavior of the relaxation rate $R$. The value $H_{max}$ for Ag-doped crystals is larger than for the pure one due to the presence of additional pinning centers, above all on silver atoms.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figure

A Study of the PDGF Signaling Pathway with PRISM

In this paper, we apply the probabilistic model checker PRISM to the analysis of a biological system -- the Platelet-Derived Growth Factor (PDGF) signaling pathway, demonstrating in detail how this pathway can be analyzed in PRISM. We show that quantitative verification can yield a better understanding of the PDGF signaling pathway.Comment: In Proceedings CompMod 2011, arXiv:1109.104

Which treatment for low back pain? A factorial randomised controlled trial comparing intravenous analgesics with oral analgesics in the emergency department and a centrally acting muscle relaxant with placebo over three days [ISRCTN09719705]

BACKGROUND: About two thirds of adults suffer from backpain at some time during their life. In the emergency room many patients with acute back pain are treated with intravenous non-steroidal analgesics. Whether this treatment is superior to oral administration of non-steroidal analgesics is unknown. Intravenous administration, however, requires considerable amounts of resources and accounts for high workload in busy clinics. In the further course centrally acting muscle relaxants are prescribed but the effectiveness remains unclear. The objective of this study is on the one hand to compare the effectiveness of intravenous with oral non-steroidal analgesics for acute treatment and on the other hand to compare the effectiveness of a centrally active muscle relaxant with placebo given for three days after presentation to the ED (emergency department). METHODS/DESIGN: This study is intended as a randomised controlled factorial trial mainly for two reasons: (1) the sequence of treatments resembles the actual proceedings in every-day clinical practice, which is important for the generalisability of the results and (2) this design allows to take interactions between the two sequential treatment strategies into account. There is a patient preference arm included because patients preference is an important issue providing valuable information: (1) it allows to assess the interaction between desired treatment and outcome, (2) results can be extrapolated to a wider group while (3) conserving the advantages of a fully randomised controlled trial. CONCLUSION: We hope to shed more light on the effectiveness of treatment modalities available for acute low back pain

A False Start in the Race Against Doping in Sport: Concerns With Cycling’s Biological Passport

Professional cycling has suffered from a number of doping scandals. The sport’s governing bodies have responded by implementing an aggressive new antidoping program known as the biological passport. Cycling’s biological passport marks a departure from traditional antidoping efforts, which have focused on directly detecting prohibited substances in a cyclist’s system. Instead, the biological passport tracks biological variables in a cyclist’s blood and urine over time, monitoring for fluctuations that are thought to indirectly reveal the effects of doping. Although this method of indirect detection is promising, it also raises serious legal and scientific concerns. Since its introduction, the cycling community has debated the reliability of indirect biological-passport evidence and the clarity, consistency, and transparency of its use in proving doping violations. Such uncertainty undermines the legitimacy of finding cyclists guilty of doping based on this indirect evidence alone. Antidoping authorities should address these important concerns before continuing to pursue doping sanctions against cyclists solely on the basis of their biological passports

Sagopilone (ZK-EPO, ZK 219477) for recurrent glioblastoma. A phase II multicenter trial by the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Brain Tumor Group

Background: Sagopilone (ZK 219477), a lipophylic and synthetic analog of epothilone B, that crosses the blood-brain barrier has demonstrated preclinical activity in glioma models. Patients and methods: Patients with first recurrence/progression of glioblastoma were eligible for this early phase II and pharmacokinetic study exploring single-agent sagopilone (16 mg/m2 over 3 h every 21 days). Primary end point was a composite of either tumor response or being alive and progression free at 6 months. Overall survival, toxicity and safety and pharmacokinetics were secondary end points. Results: Thirty-eight (evaluable 37) patients were included. Treatment was well tolerated, and neuropathy occurred in 46% patients [mild (grade 1) : 32%]. No objective responses were seen. The progression-free survival (PFS) rate at 6 months was 6.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-18.7], the median PFS was just over 6 weeks, and the median overall survival was 7.6 months (95% CI 5.3-12.3), with a 1-year survival rate of 31.6% (95% CI 17.7-46.4). Maximum plasma concentrations were reached at the end of the 3-h infusion, with rapid declines within 30 min after termination. Conclusions: No evidence of relevant clinical antitumor activity against recurrent glioblastoma could be detected. Sagopilone was well tolerated, and moderate-to-severe peripheral neuropathy was observed in despite prolonged administratio

The Large Enriched Germanium Experiment for Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay (LEGEND)

The observation of neutrinoless double-beta decay (0${\nu}{\beta}{\beta}$) would show that lepton number is violated, reveal that neutrinos are Majorana particles, and provide information on neutrino mass. A discovery-capable experiment covering the inverted ordering region, with effective Majorana neutrino masses of 15 - 50 meV, will require a tonne-scale experiment with excellent energy resolution and extremely low backgrounds, at the level of $\sim$0.1 count /(FWHM$\cdot$t$\cdot$yr) in the region of the signal. The current generation $^{76}$Ge experiments GERDA and the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR utilizing high purity Germanium detectors with an intrinsic energy resolution of 0.12%, have achieved the lowest backgrounds by over an order of magnitude in the 0${\nu}{\beta}{\beta}$ signal region of all 0${\nu}{\beta}{\beta}$ experiments. Building on this success, the LEGEND collaboration has been formed to pursue a tonne-scale $^{76}$Ge experiment. The collaboration aims to develop a phased 0${\nu}{\beta}{\beta}$ experimental program with discovery potential at a half-life approaching or at $10^{28}$ years, using existing resources as appropriate to expedite physics results.Comment: Proceedings of the MEDEX'17 meeting (Prague, May 29 - June 2, 2017

Characterization of 30 76^{76}Ge enriched Broad Energy Ge detectors for GERDA Phase II

The GERmanium Detector Array (GERDA) is a low background experiment located at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso in Italy, which searches for neutrinoless double beta decay of $^{76}$Ge into $^{76}$Se+2e$^-$. GERDA has been conceived in two phases. Phase II, which started in December 2015, features several novelties including 30 new Ge detectors. These were manufactured according to the Broad Energy Germanium (BEGe) detector design that has a better background discrimination capability and energy resolution compared to formerly widely-used types. Prior to their installation, the new BEGe detectors were mounted in vacuum cryostats and characterized in detail in the HADES underground laboratory in Belgium. This paper describes the properties and the overall performance of these detectors during operation in vacuum. The characterization campaign provided not only direct input for GERDA Phase II data collection and analyses, but also allowed to study detector phenomena, detector correlations as well as to test the strength of pulse shape simulation codes.Comment: 29 pages, 18 figure