The impact of seasonal variability in wildlife populations on the predicted spread of foot and mouth disease

Modeling potential disease spread in wildlife populations is important for predicting, responding to and recovering from a foreign animal disease incursion such as foot and mouth disease (FMD). We conducted a series of simulation experiments to determine how seasonal estimates of the spatial distribution of white-tailed deer impact the predicted magnitude and distribution of potential FMD outbreaks. Outbreaks were simulated in a study area comprising two distinct ecoregions in South Texas, USA, using a susceptible-latent-infectious-resistant geographic automata model (Sirca). Seasonal deer distributions were estimated by spatial autoregressive lag models and the normalized difference vegetation index. Significant (P < 0.0001) differences in both the median predicted number of deer infected and number of herds infected were found both between seasons and between ecoregions. Larger outbreaks occurred in winter within the higher deer-density ecoregion, whereas larger outbreaks occurred in summer and fall within the lower deer-density ecoregion. Results of this simulation study suggest that the outcome of an FMD incursion in a population of wildlife would depend on the density of the population infected and when during the year the incursion occurs. It is likely that such effects would be seen for FMD incursions in other regions and countries, and for other diseases, in cases in which a potential wildlife reservoir exists. Study findings indicate that the design of a mitigation strategy needs to take into account population and seasonal characteristics

The effect of the annealing temperature on the local distortion of La0.67_{0.67}Ca0.33_{0.33}MnO3_3 thin films

Mn $K$-edge fluorescence data are presented for thin film samples (3000~\AA) of Colossal Magnetoresistive (CMR) La$_{0.67}$Ca$_{0.33}$MnO$_3$: as-deposited, and post-annealed at 1000 K and 1200 K. The local distortion is analyzed in terms of three contributions: static, phonon, and an extra, temperature-dependent, polaron term. The polaron distortion is very small for the as-deposited sample and increases with the annealing temperature. In contrast, the static distortion in the samples decreases with the annealing temperature. Although the local structure of the as-deposited sample shows very little temperature dependence, the change in resistivity with temperature is the largest of these three thin film samples. The as-deposited sample also has the highest magnetoresistance (MR), which indicates some other mechanism may also contribute to the transport properties of CMR samples. We also discuss the relationship between local distortion and the magnetization of the sample.Comment: 11 pages of Preprint format, 8 figures in one tar fil

Fingerprinting the impacts of global change on tropical forests

Recent observations of widespread changes in mature tropical forests such as increasing tree growth, recruitment and mortality rates and increasing above-ground biomass suggest that 'global change' agents may be causing predictable changes in tropical forests. However, consensus over both the robustness of these changes and the environmental drivers that may be causing them is yet to emerge. This paper focuses on the second part of this debate. We review (i) the evidence that the physical, chemical and biological environment that tropical trees grow in has been altered over recent decades across large areas of the tropics, and (ii) the theoretical, experimental and observational evidence regarding the most likely effects of each of these changes on tropical forests. Ten potential widespread drivers of environmental change were identified: temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, climatic extremes (including El Niño Southern Oscillation events), atmospheric CO2 concentrations, nutrient deposition, O3/acid depositions, hunting, land-use change and increasing liana numbers. We note that each of these environmental changes is expected to leave a unique 'fingerprint' in tropical forests, as drivers directly force different processes, have different distributions in space and time and may affect some forests more than others (e.g. depending on soil fertility). Thus, in the third part of the paper we present testable a priori predictions of forest responses to assist ecologists in attributing particular changes in forests to particular causes across multiple datasets. Finally, we discuss how these drivers may change in the future and the possible consequences for tropical forests

Thermo-fluid dynamics modelling of steam electrolysis in fully-assembled tubular high-temperature proton-conducting cells

Electrolysis based on renewable energies offers a promising carbon-free solution for hydrogen generation and storage. The recent developments of proton ceramic electrolysis cells operating at intermediate temperatures bear promise of superior energy efficiency compared to oxide ion conducting electrolytes. Here, a proton ceramic Single Engineering Unit (SEU) design is optimized for steam electrolysis using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model implemented in a COMSOL Multiphysics software. The SEU is an all-in-one tubular cell arrangement that constitutes the smallest electrolysis unit and enables efficient, adaptable pressurized hydrogen generation. The parametrical modelling study is conducted for two adiabatic operation scenarios with distinct steam conversion rates and tested for multiple key parameters, namely internal and external chamber pressures and inlet stream temperature. The modelling results show that low steam conversions enable operation at higher current densities and that the thermoneutral voltage for a fixed steam conversion is highly sensitive to the process conditions and operation modes. The increment of the pressure of the generated hydrogen implies a reduced production rate at thermoneutral voltage, although it can be compensated with an enhanced steam pressure or a reduced inlet temperature. Additionally, the introduction of a porous medium as the SEU current collector in the steam chamber enhances heat transport within this chamber. The area specific resistance of the system determines the current density, enforcing an adaption of the area of the electrolyser to satisfy the target hydrogen production and energy efficiency. The resulting proposed SEU design and adapted operational parameters allow effective delivery of pressurized dry hydrogen for a wide range of conditions and applications.publishedVersio

Waulsortian Mounds and reservoir potential of the Ullin limestone ("Warsaw") in Southern Illinois and adjacent areas in Kentucky

"Geologic field trip, April 19, 1994."Includes bibliographical references

Concerted changes in tropical forest structure and dynamics: evidence from 50 South American long-term plots

Several widespread changes in the ecology of old-growth tropical forests have recently been documented for the late twentieth century, in particular an increase in stem turnover (pan-tropical), and an increase in above-ground biomass (neotropical). Whether these changes are synchronous and whether changes in growth are also occurring is not known. We analysed stand-level changes within 50 long-term. monitoring plots from across South America spanning 1971-2002. We show that: (i) basal area (BA: sum of the cross-sectional areas of all trees in a plot) increased significantly over time (by 0.10 +/- 0.04 m(2) ha(-1) yr(-1), mean +/- 95% CI); as did both (ii) stand-level BA growth rates (sum of the increments of BA of surviving trees and BA of new trees that recruited into a plot); and (iii) stand-level BA mortality rates (sum of the cross-sectional areas of all trees that died in a plot). Similar patterns were observed on a per-stem basis: (i) stem density (number of stems per hectare; 1 hectare is 10(4) m(2)) increased significantly over time (0.94 +/- 0.63 stems ha(-1) yr(-1)); as did both (ii) stem recruitment rates; and (iii) stem mortality rates. In relative terms, the pools of BA and stem density increased by 0.38 +/- 0.15% and 0.18 +/- 0.12% yr(-1), respectively. The fluxes into and out of these pools-stand-level BA growth, stand-level BA mortality, stem recruitment and stem mortality rates-increased, in relative terms, by an order of magnitude more. The gain terms (BA growth, stem recruitment) consistently exceeded the loss terms (BA loss, stem mortality) throughout the period, suggesting that whatever process is driving these changes was already acting before the plot network was established. Large long-term increases in stand-level BA growth and simultaneous increases in stand BA and stem density imply a continent-wide increase in resource availability which is increasing net primary productivity and altering forest dynamics. Continent-wide changes in incoming solar radiation, and increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and air temperatures may have increased resource supply over recent decades, thus causing accelerated growth and increased dynamism across the world's largest tract of tropical forest

Epidemiological Study of Mycobacterium bovis Infection in Buffalo and Cattle in Amazonas, Brazil.

Bovine Tuberculosis (BTB) is an endemic disease in about one hundred countries, affecting the economy causing a decrease in productivity, condemnation of meat, and damaging the credibility on international trade. Additionally, Mycobacterium bovis the major causative agent for BTB can also infect humans causing a variety of clinical presentations. The aim of this study was to determine BTB prevalence and the main risk factors for theMycobacterium bovis prevalence in cattle and buffalos in Amazonas State, Brazil. Tissue samples from 151 animals (45 buffalo and 106 cattle from five herds with buffalo only, 22 herds with cattle only, and 12 herds with buffalo and cattle) were obtained from slaughterhouses under State Veterinary Inspection. M. bovis were isolated on Stonebrink medium. The positive cultures were confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. The apparent herd and animal prevalence rates were 56.4 and 5.40%, respectively. Regarding animal species, the apparent prevalence rates were 3% in cattle and 11.8% in buffalo. Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) with random effect were used to assess the association with risk factors on the prevalence. Species (buffalo), herds size (>100 animals) and the presence of both species (buffalo and cattle) in the herd were the major risk factors for the infection by Mycobacterium bovis in the region. The findings reveal an urgent need for evidence-based effective intervention to reduce BTB prevalence in cattle and buffalo and prevent its spread to the human population. Studies are needed to understand why buffalo are more likely to be infected by M. bovis than cattle in Amazon. Recommendations for zoning, use of data from the inspection services to generate information regarding BTB focus, adoption of epidemiological tools, and discouragement of practices that promote the mixing of cattle and buffalo, were made

Elevated CO₂ does not increase eucalypt forest productivity on a low-phosphorus soil

Rising atmospheric CO2 stimulates photosynthesis and productivity of forests, offsetting CO2 emissions. Elevated CO2 experiments in temperate planted forests yielded ~23% increases in productivity over the initial years. Whether similar CO2 stimulation occurs in mature evergreen broadleaved forests on low-phosphorus (P) soils is unknown, largely due to lack of experimental evidence. This knowledge gap creates major uncertainties in future climate projections as a large part of the tropics is P-limited. Here,we increased atmospheric CO2 concentration in a mature broadleaved evergreen eucalypt forest for three years, in the first large-scale experiment on a P-limited site. We show that tree growth and other aboveground productivity components did not significantly increase in response to elevated CO2 in three years, despite a sustained 19% increase in leaf photosynthesis. Moreover, tree growth in ambient CO2 was strongly P-limited and increased by ~35% with added phosphorus. The findings suggest that P availability may potentially constrain CO2-enhanced productivity in P-limited forests; hence, future atmospheric CO2 trajectories may be higher than predicted by some models. As a result, coupled climate-carbon models should incorporate both nitrogen and phosphorus limitations to vegetation productivity in estimating future carbon sinks