Combination Forecasts of Bond and Stock Returns: An Asset Allocation Perspective

We investigate the out-of-sample forecasting ability of the HML, SMB, momentum, short-term and long-term reversal factors along with their size and value decompositions on U.S. bond and stock returns for a variety of horizons ranging from the short run (1 month) to the long run (2 years). Our findings suggest that these factors contain significantly more information for future bond and stock market returns than the typically employed financial variables. Combination of forecasts of the empirical factors turns out to be particularly successful, especially from an an asset allocation perspective. Similar findings pertain to the European and Japanese markets

Advance in the conceptual design of the European DEMO magnet system

The European DEMO, i.e. the demonstration fusion power plant designed in the framework of the Roadmap to Fusion Electricity by the EUROfusion Consortium, is approaching the end of the pre-conceptual design phase, to be accomplished with a Gate Review in 2020, in which all DEMO subsystems will be reviewed by panels of independent experts. The latest 2018 DEMO baseline has major and minor radius of 9.1 m and 2.9 m, plasma current 17.9 MA, toroidal field on the plasma axis 5.2 T, and the peak field in the toroidal-field (TF) conductor 12.0 T. The 900 ton heavy TF coil is prepared in four lowerature-superconductor (LTS) variants, some of them differing slightly, other significantly, from the ITER TF coil design. Two variants of the CS coils are investigated - a purely LTS one resembling the ITER CS, and a hybrid coil, in which the innermost layers made of HTS allow the designers either to increase the magnetic flux, and thus the duration of the fusion pulse, or to reduce the outer radius of the CS coil. An issue presently investigated by mechanical analyzes is the fatigue load. Two variants of the poloidal field coils are being investigated. The magnet and conductor design studies are accompanied by the experimental tests on both LTS and HTS prototype samples, covering a broad range of DC and AC tests. Testing of quench behavior of the 15 kA HTS cables, with size and layout relevant for the fusion magnets and cooled by forced flow helium, is in preparation.</p

The dust environment of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko from Rosetta OSIRIS and VLT observations in the 4.5 to 2.9 au heliocentric distance range inbound

Context. The ESA Rosetta spacecraft, currently orbiting around cornet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, has already provided in situ measurements of the dust grain properties from several instruments, particularly OSIRIS and GIADA. We propose adding value to those measurements by combining them with ground-based observations of the dust tail to monitor the overall, time-dependent dust-production rate and size distribution. Aims. To constrain the dust grain properties, we take Rosetta OSIRIS and GIADA results into account, and combine OSIRIS data during the approach phase (from late April to early June 2014) with a large data set of ground-based images that were acquired with the ESO Very Large Telescope (VLT) from February to November 2014. Methods. A Monte Carlo dust tail code, which has already been used to characterise the dust environments of several comets and active asteroids, has been applied to retrieve the dust parameters. Key properties of the grains (density, velocity, and size distribution) were obtained from. Rosetta observations: these parameters were used as input of the code to considerably reduce the number of free parameters. In this way, the overall dust mass-loss rate and its dependence on the heliocentric distance could be obtained accurately. Results. The dust parameters derived from the inner coma measurements by OSIRIS and GIADA and from distant imaging using VLT data are consistent, except for the power index of the size-distribution function, which is alpha = -3, instead of alpha = -2, for grains smaller than 1 mm. This is possibly linked to the presence of fluffy aggregates in the coma. The onset of cometary activity occurs at approximately 4.3 AU, with a dust production rate of 0.5 kg/s, increasing up to 15 kg/s at 2.9 AU. This implies a dust-to-gas mass ratio varying between 3.8 and 6.5 for the best-fit model when combined with water-production rates from the MIRO experiment

Models of Rosetta/OSIRIS 67P Dust Coma Phase Function

The phase function of the dust coma of comet 67P has been determined from Rosetta/OSIRIS images. This function shows a deep minimum at phase angles near 100°, and a strong backscattering enhancement. These two properties cannot be reproduced by regular models of cometary dust, most of them based on wavelength-sized and randomly oriented aggregate particles. We show, however, that an ensemble of oriented elongated particles of a wide variety of aspect ratios, with radii r 10 μm, and whose long axes are perpendicular to the direction of the solar radiation, are capable of reproducing the observed phase function. These particles must be absorbing, with an imaginary part of the refractive index of about 0.1 to match the expected geometric albedo, and with porosity in the 60%-70% range.© 2018. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved..OSIRIS was built by a consortium of the Max-Planck-Institut fur Sonnensystemforschung, in Gottingen, Germany, CISAS-University of Padova, Italy, the Laboratoire dAstrophysique de Marseille, France, the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia, CSIC, Granada, Spain, the Research and Scientific Support Department of the European Space Agency, Noordwijk, The Netherlands, the Instituto Nacional de Tecnica Aeroespacial, Madrid, Spain, the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Spain, the Department of Physics and Astronomy of Uppsala University, Sweden, and the Institut fur Datentechnik und Kommunikationsnetze der Technischen Universitat Braunschweig, Germany. The support of the national funding agencies of Germany (DLR), France (CNES), Italy (ASI), Spain (MEC), Sweden (SNSB; grant No. 74/10: 2), and the ESA Technical Directorate is gratefully acknowledged. H.R. was also supported by grant No. 2011/01/B/ST9/05442 of the Polish National Science Center. We thank the ESA teams at ESAC, ESOC, and ESTEC for their work in support of the Rosetta mission We thank the Rosetta Science Ground Segment at ESAC, the Rosetta Mission Operations Centre at ESOC, and the Rosetta Project at ESTEC for their outstanding work enabling the science return of the Rosetta Mission. This work was supported by contracts AYA2015-67152-R and AYA2015-71975-REDT from the Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad

The DEMO magnet system – Status and future challenges

We present the pre-concept design of the European DEMO Magnet System, which has successfully passed the DEMO plant-level gate review in 2020. The main design input parameters originate from the so-called DEMO 2018 baseline, which was produced using the PROCESS systems code. It defines a major and minor radius of 9.1 m and 2.9 m, respectively, an on-axis magnetic field of 5.3 T resulting in a peak field on the toroidal field (TF) conductor of 12.0 T. Four variants, all based on low-temperature superconductors (LTS), have been designed for the 16 TF coils. Two of these concepts were selected to be further pursued during the Concept Design Phase (CDP): the first having many similarities to the ITER TF coil concept and the second being the most innovative one, based on react-and-wind (RW) Nb3Sn technology and winding the coils in layers. Two variants for the five Central Solenoid (CS) modules have been investigated: an LTS-only concept resembling to the ITER CS and a hybrid configuration, in which the innermost layers are made of high-temperature superconductors (HTS), which allows either to increase the magnetic flux or to reduce the outer radius of the CS coil. Issues related to fatigue lifetime which emerged in mechanical analyses will be addressed further in the CDP. Both variants proposed for the six poloidal field coils present a lower level of risk for future development. All magnet and conductor design studies included thermal-hydraulic and mechanical analyses, and were accompanied by experimental tests on both LTS and HTS prototype samples (i.e. DC and AC measurements, stability tests, quench evolution etc.). In addition, magnet structures and auxiliary systems, e.g. cryogenics and feeders, were designed at pre-concept level. Important lessons learnt during this first phase of the project were fed into the planning of the CDP. Key aspects to be addressed concern the demonstration and validation of critical technologies (e.g. industrial manufacturing of RW Nb3Sn and HTS long conductors, insulation of penetrations and joints), as well as the detailed design of the overall Magnet System and mechanical structures

Effect of Lactoferrin on Clinical Outcomes of Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: The LAC Randomized Clinical Trial

As lactoferrin is a nutritional supplement with proven antiviral and immunomodulatory abilities, it may be used to improve the clinical course of COVID-19. The clinical efficacy and safety of bovine lactoferrin were evaluated in the LAC randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial. A total of 218 hospitalized adult patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 were randomized to receive 800 mg/die oral bovine lactoferrin (n = 113) or placebo (n = 105), both given in combination with standard COVID-19 therapy. No differences in lactoferrin vs. placebo were observed in the primary outcomes: the proportion of death or intensive care unit admission (risk ratio of 1.06 (95% CI 0.63–1.79)) or proportion of discharge or National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) ≤ 2 within 14 days from enrollment (RR of 0.85 (95% CI 0.70–1.04)). Lactoferrin showed an excellent safety and tolerability profile. Even though bovine lactoferrin is safe and tolerable, our results do not support its use in hospitalized patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19

Evolution of the Dust Size Distribution of Comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko from 2.2 au to Perihelion

The Rosetta probe, orbiting Jupiter-family comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, has been detecting individual dust particles of mass larger than 10^(−10) kg by means of the GIADA dust collector and the OSIRIS Wide Angle Camera and Narrow Angle Camera since 2014 August and will continue until 2016 September. Detections of single dust particles allow us to estimate the anisotropic dust flux from 67P, infer the dust loss rate and size distribution at the surface of the sunlit nucleus, and see whether the dust size distribution of 67P evolves in time. The velocity of the Rosetta orbiter, relative to 67P, is much lower than the dust velocity measured by GIADA, thus dust counts when GIADA is nadir-pointing will directly provide the dust flux. In OSIRIS observations, the dust flux is derived from the measurement of the dust space density close to the spacecraft. Under the assumption of radial expansion of the dust, observations in the nadir direction provide the distance of the particles by measuring their trail length, with a parallax baseline determined by the motion of the spacecraft. The dust size distribution at sizes >1 mm observed by OSIRIS is consistent with a differential power index of −4, which was derived from models of 67P’s trail. At sizes <1 mm, the size distribution observed by GIADA shows a strong time evolution, with a differential power index drifting from −2 beyond 2 au to −3.7 at perihelion, in agreement with the evolution derived from coma and tail models based on ground-based data. The refractory-to-water mass ratio of the nucleus is close to six during the entire inbound orbit and at perihelion

Evidence of sub-surface energy storage in comet 67P from the outburst of 2016 July 03

On 2016 July 03, several instruments onboard ESA's Rosetta spacecraft detected signs of an outburst event on comet 67P, at a heliocentric distance of 3.32 au from the Sun, outbound from perihelion. We here report on the inferred properties of the ejected dust and the surface change at the site of the outburst. The activity coincided with the local sunrise and continued over a time interval of 14-68 min. It left a 10-m-sized icy patch on the surface. The ejected material comprised refractory grains of several hundred microns in size, and sub-micron-sized water ice grains. The high dust mass production rate is incompatible with the free sublimation of crystalline water ice under solar illumination as the only acceleration process. Additional energy stored near the surface must have increased the gas density. We suggest a pressurized sub-surface gas reservoir, or the crystallization of amorphous water ice as possible causes.© 2015 The Authors.The support of the national funding agencies of Germany (DLR, grant 50 QP 1302), France (CNES), Austria, Finland and the ESA Technical Directorate is gratefully acknowledged.Peer Reviewe

Momentum transfer from the DART mission kinetic impact on asteroid Dimorphos

The NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission performed a kinetic impact on asteroid Dimorphos, the satellite of the binary asteroid (65803) Didymos, at 23:14 UTC on 26 September 2022 as a planetary defence test1. DART was the first hypervelocity impact experiment on an asteroid at size and velocity scales relevant to planetary defence, intended to validate kinetic impact as a means of asteroid deflection. Here we report a determination of the momentum transferred to an asteroid by kinetic impact. On the basis of the change in the binary orbit period2, we find an instantaneous reduction in Dimorphos’s along-track orbital velocity component of 2.70 ± 0.10 mm s−1, indicating enhanced momentum transfer due to recoil from ejecta streams produced by the impact3,4. For a Dimorphos bulk density range of 1,500 to 3,300 kg m−3, we find that the expected value of the momentum enhancement factor, β, ranges between 2.2 and 4.9, depending on the mass of Dimorphos. If Dimorphos and Didymos are assumed to have equal densities of 2,400 kg m−3, β=3.61−0.25+0.19(1σ). These β values indicate that substantially more momentum was transferred to Dimorphos from the escaping impact ejecta than was incident with DART. Therefore, the DART kinetic impact was highly effective in deflecting the asteroid Dimorphos