Modeling Seasonality in New Product Diffusion

Although high frequency diffusion data is nowadays available, common practice is still to only use yearly figures in order to get rid of seasonality. This paper proposes a diffusion model that captures seasonality in a way that naturally matches the overall S-shaped pattern. The model is based on the assumption that additional sales at seasonal peaks are drawn from previous or future periods. This implies that the seasonal pattern does not influence the underlying diffusion pattern. The model is compared with alternative approaches through simulations and empirical examples. As alternatives we consider the standard Generalized Bass Model and ignoring seasonality by using the basic Bass model. One of our main findings is that modeling seasonality in a Generalized Bass Model does generate good predictions, but gives biased estimates. In particular, the market potential parameter will be underestimated. Ignoring seasonality gives the true parameter estimates if the data is available of the entire diffusion period. However, when only part of the diffusion period is available estimates and predictions become biased. Our model gives correct estimates and predictions even if the full diffusion process is not yet available

Modeling seasonality in new product diffusion

We propose a method to include seasonality in any diffusion model that has a closed-form solution. The resulting diffusion model captures seasonality in a way that naturally matches the original diffusion model's pattern. The method assumes that additional sales at seasonal peaks are drawn from previous or future periods. This implies that the seasonal pattern does not influence the underlying diffusion pattern. The model is compared with alternative approaches through simulations and empirical examples. As alternatives, we consider the standard Generalized Bass Model (GBM) and the basic Bass Model, which ignores seasonality. One of the main findings is that modeling seasonality in a GBM generates good predictions but gives biased estimates. In particular, the market potential parameter is underestimated. Ignoring seasonality in cases where data of the entire diffusion period are available gives unbiased parameter estimates in most relevant scenarios. However, ignoring seasonality leads to biased parameter estimates and predictions when only part of the diffusion period is available. We demonstrate that our model gives correct estimates and predictions even if the full diffusion process is not yet available

Performance and Usability Evaluation Scheme for Mobile Manipulator Teleoperation

This article presents a standardized human–robot teleoperation interface (HRTI) evaluation scheme for mobile manipulators. Teleoperation remains the predominant control type for mobile manipulators in open environments, particularly for quadruped manipulators. However, mobile manipulators, especially quadruped manipulators, are relatively novel systems to be implemented in the industry compared to traditional machinery. Consequently, no standardized interface evaluation method has been established for them. The proposed scheme is the first of its kind in evaluating mobile manipulator teleoperation. It comprises a set of robot motion tests, objective measures, subjective measures, and a prediction model to provide a comprehensive evaluation. The motion tests encompass locomotion, manipulation, and a combined test. The duration for each trial is collected as the response variable in the objective measure. Statistical tools, including mean value, standard deviation, and T-test, are utilized to cross-compare between different predictor variables. Based on an extended Fitts' law, the prediction model employs the time and mission difficulty index to forecast system performance in future missions. The subjective measures utilize the NASA-task load index and the system usability scale to assess workload and usability. Finally, the proposed scheme is implemented on a real-world quadruped manipulator with two widely-used HRTIs, the gamepad and the wearable motion capture system

Tcf7l2 plays pleiotropic roles in the control of glucose homeostasis, pancreas morphology, vascularization and regeneration

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a disease characterized by impaired insulin secretion. The Wnt signaling transcription factor Tcf7l2 is to date the T2D-associated gene with the largest effect on disease susceptibility. However, the mechanisms by which TCF7L2 variants affect insulin release from \u3b2-cells are not yet fully understood. By taking advantage of a tcf7l2 zebrafish mutant line, we first show that these animals are characterized by hyperglycemia and impaired islet development. Moreover, we demonstrate that the zebrafish tcf7l2 gene is highly expressed in the exocrine pancreas, suggesting potential bystander effects on \u3b2-cell growth, differentiation and regeneration. Finally, we describe a peculiar vascular phenotype in tcf7l2 mutant larvae, characterized by significant reduction in the average number and diameter of pancreatic islet capillaries. Overall, the zebrafish Tcf7l2 mutant, characterized by hyperglycemia, pancreatic and vascular defects, and reduced regeneration proves to be a suitable model to study the mechanism of action and the pleiotropic effects of Tcf7l2, the most relevant T2D GWAS hit in human populations

Global Analysis of Aerosol Properties Above Clouds

The seasonal and spatial varability of Aerosol Above Cloud (AAC) properties are derived from passive satellite data for the year 2008. A significant amount of aerosols are transported above liquid water clouds on the global scale. For particles in the fine mode (i.e., radius smaller than 0.3 m), including both clear sky and AAC retrievals increases the global mean aerosol optical thickness by 25(+/- 6%). The two main regions with man-made AAC are the tropical Southeast Atlantic, for biomass burning aerosols, and the North Pacific, mainly for pollutants. Man-made AAC are also detected over the Arctic during the spring. Mineral dust particles are detected above clouds within the so-called dust belt region (5-40 N). AAC may cause a warming effect and bias the retrieval of the cloud properties. This study will then help to better quantify the impacts of aerosols on clouds and climate

Delineating an extracellular redox-sensitive module in T-type Ca2+ channels

T-type (Cav3) Ca2+ channels are important regulators of excitability and rhythmic activity of excitable cells. Among other voltage-gated Ca2+ channels, Cav3 channels are uniquely sensitive to oxidation and zinc. Using recombinant protein expression in HEK293 cells, patch-clamp electrophysiology, site-directed mutagenesis, and homology modeling, we report here that modulation of Cav3.2 by redox agents and zinc is mediated by a unique extracellular module containing i) a high-affinity metal-binding site formed by the extracellular IS1–IS2 and IS3–IS4 loops of domain I, and ii) a cluster of extracellular cysteines in the IS1–IS2 loop. Patch clamp recording of recombinant Cav3.2 currents revealed that two cysteine-modifying agents, sodium (2-sulfonatoethyl) methanethiosulfonate (MTSES) and N-ethylmaleimide (NEM), as well as a reactive oxygen species–producing neuropeptide, substance P (SP), inhibit Cav3.2 current to similar degrees and that this inhibition is reversed by a reducing agent and a zinc chelator. Pre-application of MTSES prevented further SP-mediated current inhibition. Substitution of the zinc-binding residue His-191 in Cav3.2 reduced the channel’s sensitivity to MTSES, and introduction of the corresponding histidine into Cav3.1 sensitized it to MTSES. Removal of extracellular cysteines from the IS1–IS2 loop of Cav3.2 reduced its sensitivity to both MTSES and SP. We hypothesize that oxidative modification of IS1–IS2 loop cysteines induces allosteric changes in the zinc-binding site of Cav3.2, such that it become sensitive to ambient zinc

The local power of the gradient test

The asymptotic expansion of the distribution of the gradient test statistic is derived for a composite hypothesis under a sequence of Pitman alternative hypotheses converging to the null hypothesis at rate $n^{-1/2}$, $n$ being the sample size. Comparisons of the local powers of the gradient, likelihood ratio, Wald and score tests reveal no uniform superiority property. The power performance of all four criteria in one-parameter exponential family is examined.Comment: To appear in the Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, this http://www.ism.ac.jp/editsec/aism-e.htm

Tcf7l2 plays pleiotropic roles in the control of glucose homeostasis, pancreas morphology, vascularization and regeneration

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a disease characterized by impaired insulin secretion. The Wnt signaling transcription factor Tcf7l2 is to date the T2D-associated gene with the largest effect on disease susceptibility. However, the mechanisms by which TCF7L2 variants affect insulin release from β-cells are not yet fully understood. By taking advantage of a tcf7l2 zebrafish mutant line, we first show that these animals are characterized by hyperglycemia and impaired islet development. Moreover, we demonstrate that the zebrafish tcf7l2 gene is highly expressed in the exocrine pancreas, suggesting potential bystander effects on β-cell growth, differentiation and regeneration. Finally, we describe a peculiar vascular phenotype in tcf7l2 mutant larvae, characterized by significant reduction in the average number and diameter of pancreatic islet capillaries. Overall, the zebrafish Tcf7l2 mutant, characterized by hyperglycemia, pancreatic and vascular defects, and reduced regeneration proves to be a suitable model to study the mechanism of action and the pleiotropic effects of Tcf7l2, the most relevant T2D GWAS hit in human populations. © 2017 The Author(s)