Extreme Value Theory for Piecewise Contracting Maps with Randomly Applied Stochastic Perturbations

We consider globally invertible and piecewise contracting maps in higher dimensions and we perturb them with a particular kind of noise introduced by Lasota and Mackey. We got random transformations which are given by a stationary process: in this framework we develop an extreme value theory for a few classes of observables and we show how to get the (usual) limiting distributions together with an extremal index depending on the strength of the noise.Comment: 16 pages. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1407.041

Bistable systems with stochastic noise: Virtues and limits of effective one-dimensional Langevin equations

The understanding of the statistical properties and of the dynamics of multistable systems is gaining more and more importance in a vast variety of scientific fields. This is especially relevant for the investigation of the tipping points of complex systems. Sometimes, in order to understand the time series of given observables exhibiting bimodal distributions, simple one-dimensional Langevin models are fitted to reproduce the observed statistical properties, and used to investing-ate the projected dynamics of the observable. This is of great relevance for studying potential catastrophic changes in the properties of the underlying system or resonant behaviours like those related to stochastic resonance-like mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a framework for encasing this kind of studies, using simple box models of the oceanic circulation and choosing as observable the strength of the thermohaline circulation. We study the statistical properties of the transitions between the two modes of operation of the thermohaline circulation under symmetric boundary forcings and test their agreement with simplified one-dimensional phenomenological theories. We extend our analysis to include stochastic resonance-like amplification processes. We conclude that fitted one-dimensional Langevin models, when closely scrutinised, may result to be more ad-hoc than they seem, lacking robustness and/or well-posedness. They should be treated with care, more as an empiric descriptive tool than as methodology with predictive power

Scale interactions and anisotropy in stable boundary layers

Regimes of interactions between motions on different time-scales are investigated in the FLOSSII dataset for nocturnal near-surface stable boundary layer (SBL) turbulence. The nonstationary response of turbulent vertical velocity variance to non-turbulent, sub-mesoscale wind velocity variability is analysed using the bounded variation, finite element, vector autoregressive factor models (FEM-BV-VARX) clustering method. Several locally stationary flow regimes are identified with different influences of sub-meso wind velocity on the turbulent vertical velocity variance. In each flow regime, we analyse multiple scale interactions and quantify the amount of turbulent variability which can be statistically explained by the individual forcing variables. The state of anisotropy of the Reynolds stress tensor in the different flow regimes is shown to relate to these different signatures of scale interactions. In flow regimes dominated by sub-mesoscale wind variability, the Reynolds stresses show a clear preference for strongly anisotropic, one-component stresses, which tend to correspond to periods in which the turbulent fluxes are against the mean gradient. These periods additionally show stronger persistence in their dynamics, compared to periods of more isotropic stresses. The analyses give insights on how the different topologies relate to non-stationary turbulence triggering by sub-mesoscale motions

Analysis of Round Off Errors with Reversibility Test as a Dynamical Indicator

We compare the divergence of orbits and the reversibility error for discrete time dynamical systems. These two quantities are used to explore the behavior of the global error induced by round off in the computation of orbits. The similarity of results found for any system we have analysed suggests the use of the reversibility error, whose computation is straightforward since it does not require the knowledge of the exact orbit, as a dynamical indicator. The statistics of fluctuations induced by round off for an ensemble of initial conditions has been compared with the results obtained in the case of random perturbations. Significant differences are observed in the case of regular orbits due to the correlations of round off error, whereas the results obtained for the chaotic case are nearly the same. Both the reversibility error and the orbit divergence computed for the same number of iterations on the whole phase space provide an insight on the local dynamical properties with a detail comparable with other dynamical indicators based on variational methods such as the finite time maximum Lyapunov characteristic exponent, the mean exponential growth factor of nearby orbits and the smaller alignment index. For 2D symplectic maps the differentiation between regular and chaotic regions is well full-filled. For 4D symplectic maps the structure of the resonance web as well as the nearby weakly chaotic regions are accurately described.Comment: International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 201

Deterministic and stochastic chaos characterize laboratory earthquakes

We analyze frictional motion for a laboratory fault as it passes through the stability transition from stable sliding to unstable motion. We study frictional stick-slip events, which are the lab equivalent of earthquakes, via dynamical system tools in order to retrieve information on the underlying dynamics and to assess whether there are dynamical changes associated with the transition from stable to unstable motion. We find that the seismic cycle exhibits characteristics of a low-dimensional system with average dimension similar to that of natural slow earthquakes (<5). We also investigate local properties of the attractor and find maximum instantaneous dimension ≳10, indicating that some regions of the phase space require a high number of degrees of freedom (dofs). Our analysis does not preclude deterministic chaos, but the lab seismic cycle is best explained by a random attractor based on rate- and state-dependent friction whose dynamics is stochastically perturbed. We find that minimal variations of 0.05% of the shear and normal stresses applied to the experimental fault influence the large-scale dynamics and the recurrence time of labquakes. While complicated motion including period doubling is observed near the stability transition, even in the fully unstable regime we do not observe truly periodic behavior. Friction's nonlinear nature amplifies small scale perturbations, reducing the predictability of the otherwise periodic macroscopic dynamics. As applied to tectonic faults, our results imply that even small stress field fluctuations (≲150 kPa) can induce coefficient of variations in earthquake repeat time of a few percent. Moreover, these perturbations can drive an otherwise fast-slipping fault, close to the critical stability condition, into a mixed behavior involving slow and fast ruptures

The compound Poisson limit ruling periodic extreme behaviour of non-uniformly hyperbolic dynamics

We prove that the distributional limit of the normalised number of returns to small neighbourhoods of periodic points of non-uniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems is compound Poisson. The returns to small balls around a fixed point in the phase space correspond to the occurrence of rare events, or exceedances of high thresholds, so that there is a connection between the laws of Return Times Statistics and Extreme Value Laws. The fact that the fixed point in the phase space is a repelling periodic point implies that there is a tendency for the exceedances to appear in clusters whose average sizes is given by the Extremal Index, which depends on the expansion of the system at the periodic point. We recall that for generic points, the exceedances, in the limit, are singular and occur at Poisson times. However, around periodic points, the picture is different: the respective point processes of exceedances converge to a compound Poisson process, so instead of single exceedances, we have entire clusters of exceedances occurring at Poisson times with a geometric distribution ruling its multiplicity. The systems to which our results apply include: general piecewise expanding maps of the interval (Rychlik maps), maps with indifferent fixed points (Manneville-Pomeau maps) and Benedicks-Carleson quadratic maps.Comment: To appear in Communications in Mathematical Physic

Extreme value statistics for dynamical systems with noise

We study the distribution of maxima ( extreme value statistics ) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former case, we show that, by perturbing rational or irrational rotations with additive noise, an extreme value law appears, regardless of the intensity of the noise, while unperturbed rotations do not admit such limiting distributions. In the case of deterministic chaotic dynamics, we will consider observables specially designed to study the recurrence properties in the neighbourhood of periodic points. Hence, the exponential limiting law for the distribution of maxima is modified by the presence of the extremal index , a positive parameter not larger than one, whose inverse gives the average size of the clusters of extreme events. The theory predicts that such a parameter is unitary when the system is perturbed randomly. We perform sophisticated numerical tests to assess how strong the impact of noise level is when finite time series are considered. We find agreement with the asymptotic theoretical results but also non-trivial behaviour in the finite range. In particular, our results suggest that, in many applications where finite datasets can be produced or analysed, one must be careful in assuming that the smoothing nature of noise prevails over the underlying deterministic dynamics