Seasonal Adjustment Methods and the Determination of Turning Points of the EMU Business Cycle

In this paper, we investigate the impact of the adjustment for seasonal effects with different seasonal adjustment methods, the possible pre-treatment for calendar effects and the different order of aggregation and adjustment for the determination of the turning points of the European business cycle. The European business cycle is represented first by the GDP series (referring to the classical definition of a business cycle as fluctuations in the level of economic activity), and then by deviations from trend (which corresponds to the definition of the cycle as changing capacity utilisation). The turning points are determined using a mechanical procedure (Bry/Boschan methodology), which ensure that all series are treated alike. The comparison of turning points in the classical and growth cycles has brought the following results: 1.The order of seasonal adjustment and aggregation has only minor effects on the determined turning points of the European business cycle. 2.If the series are pretreated for calendar effects, turning points in the aggregated series can differ significantly. 3.It is not relevant whether the series were adjusted with a single method or with different methods (mixed aggregates)

Constructing seasonally adjusted data with time-varying confidence intervals

Seasonal adjustment methods transform observed time series data into estimated data, where these estimated data are constructed such that they show no or almost no seasonal variation. An advantage of model-based methods is that these can provide confidence intervals around the seasonally adjusted data. One particularly useful time series model for seasonal adjustment is the basic structural time series [BSM] model. The usual premise of the BSM is that the variance of each of the components is constant. In this paper we address the possibility that the variance of the trend component in a macro-economic time series in some way depends on the business cycle. One reason for doing so is that one can expect that there is more uncertainty in recession periods. We extend the BSM by allowing for a business-cycle dependent variance in the level equation. Next we show how this affects the confidence intervals of seasonally adjusted data. We apply our extended BSM to monthly US unemployment and we show that the estimated confidence intervals for seasonally adjusted unemployment change with past changes in the oil price

Narrative Review of Single Ventricle: Where Are We after 40 Years?

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Key medical and surgical advances have been made in the longitudinal management of patients with functionally single ventricle physiology, with the principles of Fontan circulation applied to other complex congenital heart defects. The purpose of this article is to review all of the innovations, starting from fetal life, that led to a change of strategy for single ventricle. METHODS: Our literature review included all full articles published in English language on the Cochrane, MedLine, and Embase with references to single ventricle and univentricular hearts , including the initial history of the treatments for this congenital heart defects as well as the innovations reported within the last decades. KEY CONTENT AND FINDINGS: All innovations introduced have been analyzed, including: (I) fetal diagnosis and interventions, in particular to prevent or reduce brain damages; (II) neonatal care; (III) post-natal diagnosis; (IV) interventional cardiology procedures; (V) surgical procedures, including neonatal palliations, hybrid procedures, bidirectional Glenn and variations, Fontan completion, biventricular repair; (VI) peri-operative management; (VII) Fontan failure, with Fontan take-down and conversion, and mechanical circulatory support; (VIII) transplantation, including heart, heart and lung, heart and liver; (IX) exercise; (X) pregnancy; (XI) adolescents and adults without Fontan completion; (XII) future studies, including experimental studies on animals, computational studies, genetics, stem cells and bioengineering. CONCLUSIONS: These last 40 years have certainly changed the course of natural history for children born with any form of functionally single ventricle, thanks to the improvement in diagnostic and treatment techniques, and particularly to the increased knowledge of the morphology and function of these complex hearts, from fetal to adult life. There is still much left unexplored and room for improvement, and all efforts should be concentrated in collaborations among different institutions and specialties, focused on the same matter

Framework, principles and recommendations for utilising participatory methodologies in the co-creation and evaluation of public health interventions

Background: Due to the chronic disease burden on society, there is a need for preventive public health interventions to stimulate society towards a healthier lifestyle. To deal with the complex variability between individual lifestyles and settings, collaborating with end-users to develop interventions tailored to their unique circumstances has been suggested as a potential way to improve effectiveness and adherence. Co-creation of public health interventions using participatory methodologies has shown promise but lacks a framework to make this process systematic. The aim of this paper was to identify and set key principles and recommendations for systematically applying participatory methodologies to co-create and evaluate public health interventions. Methods: These principles and recommendations were derived using an iterative reflection process, combining key learning from published literature in addition to critical reflection on three case studies conducted by research groups in three European institutions, all of whom have expertise in co-creating public health interventions using different participatory methodologies. Results: Key principles and recommendations for using participatory methodologies in public health intervention co-creation are presented for the stages of: Planning (framing the aim of the study and identifying the appropriate sampling strategy); Conducting (defining the procedure, in addition to manifesting ownership); Evaluating (the process and the effectiveness) and Reporting (providing guidelines to report the findings). Three scaling models are proposed to demonstrate how to scale locally developed interventions to a population level. Conclusions: These recommendations aim to facilitate public health intervention co-creation and evaluation utilising participatory methodologies by ensuring the process is systematic and reproducible

Search for Gravitational Waves from Primordial Black Hole Binary Coalescences in the Galactic Halo

We use data from the second science run of the LIGO gravitational-wave detectors to search for the gravitational waves from primordial black hole (PBH) binary coalescence with component masses in the range 0.2--$1.0 M_\odot$. The analysis requires a signal to be found in the data from both LIGO observatories, according to a set of coincidence criteria. No inspiral signals were found. Assuming a spherical halo with core radius 5 kpc extending to 50 kpc containing non-spinning black holes with masses in the range 0.2--$1.0 M_\odot$, we place an observational upper limit on the rate of PBH coalescence of 63 per year per Milky Way halo (MWH) with 90% confidence.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, to be submitted to Phys. Rev.

Searching for gravitational waves from known pulsars

We present upper limits on the amplitude of gravitational waves from 28 isolated pulsars using data from the second science run of LIGO. The results are also expressed as a constraint on the pulsars' equatorial ellipticities. We discuss a new way of presenting such ellipticity upper limits that takes account of the uncertainties of the pulsar moment of inertia. We also extend our previous method to search for known pulsars in binary systems, of which there are about 80 in the sensitive frequency range of LIGO and GEO 600.Comment: Accepted by CQG for the proceeding of GWDAW9, 7 pages, 2 figure

Colonial policy, ecological transformations, and agricultural “improvement”: comparing agricultural yields and expansion in the Spanish and U.S. Philippines, 1870–1925 CE

Burgeoning global trade and colonial policies promoted transformations in land use and agriculture throughout tropical regions in the 19th and 20th centuries, but the local and regional ecological consequences of landscape changes are still being identified and analysed. The Philippine Archipelago, which experienced successive colonial regimes across more than 7100 islands, exemplifies the multiplicity of ecological outcomes produced by these transformations. To better characterise diverse landscape change, we use colonial censuses and datasets to assess land use, production and agricultural yields in the Philippines during the late Spanish and early U.S. colonial periods (ca. 1870–1925). Our novel digital, quantitative analysis indicates that, at the national and provincial scales, agricultural production and land use increased for all major crops in both periods, while agricultural yields were mostly constant. Our results suggest that colonial investments to “improve” Philippine agriculture, specifically their efforts to increase production per hectare, were not effective. Our provincial-scale analysis also confirms the importance of distinct labour patterns, geographies and socio-political arrangements in defining this period’s ecological consequences, and we provide quantified and historically contextualised data in a format amenable to ecologists to promote future, localised historic ecological research.Introduction Methods Censuses and the Joseph Ralston Hayden Papers. Data transcription, selection and preparation. Data analysis. Non-quantitative publications, reports and Farmers’ Bulletins. Map-making. Results Early U.S. Period, National Scale Land Use. Early U.S. Period, National Scale Production. Early U.S. Period, National Yields. Early U.S. Period, Provincial-Scale Data. Early U.S. Period Productive Yields at the Provincial Scale. Late Spanish Period, quantified data. Late Spanish and Early U.S. Period Farmers’ Manuals. Discussio

Health-related quality of life and strain in caregivers of Australians with Parkinson’s disease : An observational study

Background: The relationship between health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in people with Parkinson’s disease and their caregivers is little understood and any effects on caregiver strain remain unclear. This paper examines these relationships in an Australian sample. Methods: Using the generic EuroQol (EQ-5D) and disease-specific Parkinson’s Disease Questionnaire-39 Item (PDQ- 39), HRQoL was evaluated in a sample of 97 people with PD and their caregivers. Caregiver strain was assessed using the Modified Caregiver Strain Index. Associations were evaluated between: (i) caregiver and care-recipient HRQoL; (ii) caregiver HRQoL and caregiver strain, and; (iii) between caregiver strain and care-recipient HRQoL. Results: No statistically significant relationships were found between caregiver and care-recipient HRQoL, or between caregiver HRQoL and caregiver strain. Although this Australian sample of caregivers experienced relatively good HRQoL and moderately low strain, a significant correlation was found between HRQoL of people with PD and caregiver strain (rho 0.43, p<.001). Conclusion: Poor HRQoL in people with PD is associated with higher strain in caregivers. Therapy interventions may target problems reported as most troublesome by people with PD, with potential to reduce strain on the caregive

Thermotherapy has Sexually Dimorphic Responses in APP/PS1 Mice.

A thermoregulatory decline occurs with age due to changes in muscle mass, vasoconstriction, and metabolism that lowers core body temperature (Tc). Although lower Tc is a biomarker of successful aging, we have previously shown this worsens cognitive performance in the APP/PS1 mouse model of Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD). We hypothesized that elevating Tc with thermotherapy would improve metabolism and cognition in APP/PS1 mice. From 6-12 months of age, male and female APP/PS1 and C57BL/6 mice were chronically housed at 23 or 30°C. At 12 months of age, mice were assayed for insulin sensitivity, glucose tolerance, and spatial cognition. Plasma, hippocampal, and peripheral (adipose, hepatic, and skeletal muscle) samples were procured postmortem and tissue-specific markers of amyloid accumulation, metabolism, and inflammation were assayed. Chronic 30°C exposure increased Tc in all groups except female APP/PS1 mice. All mice receiving thermotherapy had either improved glucose tolerance or insulin sensitivity, but the underlying processes responsible for these effects varied across sexes. In males, glucose regulation was influenced predominantly by hormonal signaling in plasma and skeletal muscle glucose transporter 4 expression, whereas in females, this was modulated at the tissue level. Thermotherapy improved spatial navigation in male C57BL/6 and APP/PS1 mice, with the later attributed to reduced hippocampal soluble amyloid-β (Aβ