DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events

A new nudging method for data assimilation, delay‐coordinate nudging, is presented. Delay‐coordinate nudging makes explicit use of present and past observations in the formulation of the forcing driving the model evolution at each time step. Numerical experiments with a low‐order chaotic system show that the new method systematically outperforms standard nudging in different model and observational scenarios, also when using an unoptimized formulation of the delay‐nudging coefficients. A connection between the optimal delay and the dominant Lyapunov exponent of the dynamics is found based on heuristic arguments and is confirmed by the numerical results, providing a guideline for the practical implementation of the algorithm. Delay‐coordinate nudging preserves the easiness of implementation, the intuitive functioning and the reduced computational cost of the standard nudging, making it a potential alternative especially in the field of seasonal‐to‐decadal predictions with large Earth system models that limit the use of more sophisticated data assimilation procedures

The Stakeholder Challenge: Dealing with Challenging Situations Involving Stakeholders

Project managers are an occupational group who is exposed to high levels of stress caused by various aspects such as resources and communication or working relationships. One particularly challenging area is the interaction with stakeholders, who are often perceived to “be difficult”. With this study, we investigate how project managers cope with challenging situations involving stakeholders in projects. We do this through a qualitative study involving interviews and focus groups to explore the lived experiences of the project managers in specific situations. Our findings suggest that a project manager perspective on stakeholder management is particularly valuable to account for contextual factors such as sources of challenging situations. We propose a project coping model which transfers Lazarus and Folkman’s stress and coping model into the project context and adds the layer of project coping to emphasise the project managers’ perception of accountability and commitment to the project

Reconciling views of project success : a multiple stakeholder model

This paper presents a new model encompassing all the important critical attributes to measure project success across different stakeholder groups. The study investigates the possibility that project failure is a result of the interpretations of the criteria and factors used for success by multiple stakeholder groups. Unique projects must have their outcome parameters monitored and controlled to minimize the chances of failure and the likely major financial and managerial ramifications for the organization. Early testing of the model supports its use to increase the shared, multiple stakeholder perception of project success leading to more informed decision making and motivation of employees

Rethinking software development: the case for a dynamic life cycle model.

Contemporary software development is characterised by failures, runaway projects, late delivery, exceeded budgets, reduced functionality and questionable quality. Generally, as the complexity and scale of attempted projects increases, the ability to bring such projects to a successful completion decreases. Indeed, while the software engineering community is technically capable of producing software, there is a growing lack of confidence in its ability to control such undertakings. A key obstacle is that traditional software development is predicated on constraints and limitations that are either no longer valid or that pertain to well-structured situations. Many of the problems tackled by software developers are simply not of that type. Rethinking Software Development, a reprint of the original work which still maintains its relevance, challenges the dominant mindset and introduces an alternative; a more pluralistic perspective supportive of continuous delivery, learning and dynamic resolution processes. The discussion explores problem solving, decisions, wicked problems, systems, design, change, economics, complexity and knowledge as part of the search for lasting solutions

La paradoja de la incertidumbre: ¿cuándo menos significa más?

El riesgo se ha convertido en un aspecto generalizado reconocido de la vida, con la gestión del riesgo asumido como una preocupación en muchos contextos de negocio. Con las prisas para tratar los aspectos visibles del riesgo, parece haber una tendencia humana a ignorar la incertidumbre inherente a las situaciones, prefiriendo centrarse más en los riesgos más cuantificables. Como las organizaciones se autorreestructuran en torno a la gobernabilidad y la aversión al riesgo, este artículo plantea si la gestión de riesgos ha aumentado, paradójicamente, el nivel de riesgo al que nos enfrentamos de la misma forma en la que los ingenieros de seguridad han llegado a la conclusión de que añadir dispositivos de seguridad puede contribuir a posteriores accidentes. El camino a seguir pasa por la adopción de una nueva "cultura del diseño" unida a una sociedad fuerte que se implique activamente en los riesgos y su ambigüedad, incluyendo los que surgen al evitar otros riesgos. [Abstract from publisher, http://www.ati.es/] = Risk management has become a major concern in many business contexts. In the rush to treat the visible aspects of risk there appears to be a human tendency to ignore the uncertainty inherent in situations, preferring to focus more on quantifiable risks. As organizations restructure themselves around governance and risk aversion, this article asks whether risk management has increased, paradoxically, the level of risk we face in the same way that engineers have concluded that the addition of safety devices can contribute to further accidents. The way forward is to adopt a new "culture of design" coupled with a strong society that is actively involved in dealing with risks and their ambiguities, including those that arise by avoiding other risks

Towards a new perspective: balancing risk, safety and danger.

The management of risk has gradually emerged as a normal activity that is now a constituent part of many professions. The concept of risk has become so ubiquitous that we continually search for risk-based explanations of the world around us. Decisions and projects are often viewed through the lens of risk to determine progress, value and utility. But risk can have more than one face depending on the stance that we adopt. The article looks at the implications of adopting different positions regarding risk thereby opening a wider discussion about the links to danger and safety. In rethinking our position, we are able to appraise the different strategies that are available and reason about the need to adopt a more balanced position as an essential step towards developing a better informed perspective for managing risk and potential

El exito en los proyectos de software: yendo mas alla del fracaso.

Article about trends and development in software quality

Beyond normal failures: dynamic management of software projects

In order to facilitate continuous development software systems this paper proposes a dynamic feedback model that supports learning, knowledge acquisition and the adoption of a long term perspective. The model integrates the different functional areas required for development in a dynamic relationship offering an alternative to linear life cycles focusing on short-term delivery. The model has been extended to cover the full range of knowledge management. The work has featured in four keynote addresses and is now forming the basis of a new framework for dealing with knowledge about to be utilised by the world's largest software development organisation