Easy computation of the Bayes Factor to fully quantify Occam's razor

20 pages plus 5 pages of Supplementary MaterialThe Bayes factor is the gold-standard figure of merit for comparing fits of models to data, for hypothesis selection and parameter estimation. However it is little used because it is computationally very intensive. Here it is shown how Bayes factors can be calculated accurately and easily, so that any least-squares or maximum-likelihood fits may be routinely followed by the calculation of Bayes factors to guide the best choice of model and hence the best estimations of parameters. Approximations to the Bayes factor, such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), are increasingly used. Occam's razor expresses a primary intuition, that parameters should not be multiplied unnecessarily, and that is quantified by the BIC. The Bayes factor quantifies two further intuitions. Models with physically-meaningful parameters are preferable to models with physically-meaningless parameters. Models that could fail to fit the data, yet which do fit, are preferable to models which span the data space and are therefore guaranteed to fit the data. The outcomes of using Bayes factors are often very different from traditional statistics tests and from the BIC. Three examples are given. In two of these examples, the easy calculation of the Bayes factor is exact. The third example illustrates the rare conditions under which it has some error and shows how to diagnose and correct the error

Blue shifting of the A exciton peak in folded monolayer 1H-MoS2

The large family of layered transition-metal dichalcogenides is widely believed to constitute a second family of two-dimensional (2D) semiconducting materials that can be used to create novel devices that complement those based on graphene. In many cases these materials have shown a transition from an indirect bandgap in the bulk to a direct bandgap in monolayer systems. In this work we experimentally show that folding a 1H molybdenum disulphide (MoS2) layer results in a turbostratic stack with enhanced photoluminescence quantum yield and a significant shift to the blue by 90 meV. This is in contrast to the expected 2H-MoS2 band structure characteristics, which include an indirect gap and quenched photoluminescence. We present a theoretical explanation to the origin of this behavior in terms of exciton screening.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figure

Molecular spectrum of TSHβ subunit gene defects in central hypothyroidism in the UK and Ireland.

OBJECTIVE: Homozygous mutations in the TSH beta subunit gene (TSHB) result in severe, isolated, central congenital hypothyroidism (CCH). This entity evades diagnosis in TSH-based congenital hypothyroidism (CH) screening programmes in the UK and Ireland. Accordingly, genetic diagnosis, enabling ascertainment of affected relatives in families, is critical for prompt diagnosis and treatment of the disorder. DESIGN, PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS: Four cases of isolated TSH deficiency from three unrelated families in the UK and Ireland were investigated for mutations or deletions in TSHB. Haplotype analysis, to investigate a founder effect, was undertaken in cases with identical mutations (c.373delT). RESULTS: Two siblings in kindred 1 were homozygous for a previously described TSHB mutation (c.373delT). In kindreds 2 and 3, the affected individuals were compound heterozygous for TSHB c.373delT and either a 5·4-kB TSHB deletion (kindred 2, c.1-4389_417*195delinsCTCA) or a novel TSHB missense mutation (kindred 3, c.2T>C, p.Met1?). Neurodevelopmental retardation, following delayed diagnosis and treatment, was present in 3 cases. In contrast, the younger sibling in kindred 1 developed normally following genetic diagnosis and treatment from birth. CONCLUSIONS: This study, including the identification of a second, novel, TSHB deletion, expands the molecular spectrum of TSHB defects and suggests that allele loss may be a commoner basis for TSH deficiency than previously suspected. Delayed diagnosis and treatment of profound central hypothyroidism in such cases result in neurodevelopmental retardation. Inclusion of thyroxine (T4) plus thyroxine-binding globulin (TBG), or free thyroxine (FT4) in CH screening, together with genetic case ascertainment enabling earlier therapeutic intervention, could prevent such adverse sequelae.Wellcome Trust (Grant IDs: 100585/Z/12/Z, 095564/Z/11/Z), National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre CambridgeThis is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cen.1314

Inattentive Consumers in Markets for Services

In an experiment on markets for services, we find that consumers are likely to stick to default tariffs and achieve suboptimal outcomes. We find that inattention to the task of choosing a better tariff is likely to be a substantial problem in addition to any task and tariff complexity effect. The institutional setup on which we primarily model our experiment is the UK electricity and gas markets, and our conclusion is that the new measures by the UK regulator Ofgem to improve consumer outcomes are likely to be of limited impact

The conceptualisation and measurement of DSM-5 Internet Gaming Disorder: the development of the IGD-20 Test

Background: Over the last decade, there has been growing concern about ‘gaming addiction’ and its widely documented detrimental impacts on a minority of individuals that play excessively. The latest (fifth) edition of the American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) included nine criteria for the potential diagnosis of Internet Gaming Disorder (IGD) and noted that it was a condition that warranted further empirical study. Aim: The main aim of this study was to develop a valid and reliable standardised psychometrically robust tool in addition to providing empirically supported cut-off points. Methods: A sample of 1003 gamers (85.2% males; mean age 26 years) from 57 different countries were recruited via online gaming forums. Validity was assessed by confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), criterion-related validity, and concurrent validity. Latent profile analysis was also carried to distinguish disordered gamers from non-disordered gamers. Sensitivity and specificity analyses were performed to determine an empirical cut-off for the test. Results: The CFA confirmed the viability of IGD-20 Test with a six-factor structure (salience, mood modification, tolerance, withdrawal, conflict and relapse) for the assessment of IGD according to the nine criteria from DSM-5. The IGD-20 Test proved to be valid and reliable. According to the latent profile analysis, 5.3% of the total participants were classed as disordered gamers. Additionally, an optimal empirical cut-off of 71 points (out of 100) seemed to be adequate according to the sensitivity and specificity analyses carried

Reliability of the Marlowe-Crowne social desirability scale in Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, and Uganda

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies of HIV often use self-reported surveys to measure sexual knowledge, attitudes, and practices. However, the self-reported data are vulnerable to social desirability (SD), a propensity of individuals to report favorable responses. The Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (MC-SDS) was developed as a measure of the effect of social desirability, but it has not been adapted for or used in Africa. This study aimed to apply the MC-SDS nested in an HIV behavioral intervention program and to measure its reliability in four African countries.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The MC-SDS was adapted based on consultations with local stakeholders and pilot tested in Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, and Uganda. Trained interviewers administered the modified 28-item MC-SDS survey to 455 men and women (ages 15-24 years). The scores for the social desirability scales were calculated for all participants. An analysis of the internal consistency of responses was conducted using the Cronbach's α coefficient. Acceptable internal consistency was defined as an α coefficient of ≥ 0.70.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean social desirability scores ranged from a low of 15.7 in Kenya to a high of 20.6 in Mozambique. The mean score was 17.5 for Uganda and 20.6 for Mozambique. The Cronbach's α coefficients were 0.63 in Kenya, 0.66 in Mozambique, 0.70 in Uganda, and 0.80 in Ethiopia.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The MC-SDS can be effectively adapted and implemented in sub-Saharan Africa. The reliability of responses in these settings suggest that the MC-SDS could be a useful tool for capturing potential SD in surveys of HIV related risk behaviors.</p

Assessing Psychological Well-Being in Mothers of Children with Disability: Evaluation of the Parenting Morale Index and Family Impact of Childhood Disability Scale

Objective Process model of stress and coping guided psychometric assessment of two brief measures of psychological well-being: Parenting Morale Index (PMI); Family Impact of Childhood Disability (FICD) scale. Methods Canadian mothers (N = 195) of children with disability (CWD) completed PMI, FICD, and validation measures (Brief Family Assessment Measure [FAM], Personal Well-Being Index, Positive and Negative Affect Schedule, General Self-Efficacy Scale, Social Desirability Scale) via computer-assisted telephone interview. Of these, 154 completed additional validation measures (Center for Epidemiological Studies—Depression Scale, Parenting Stress Index, Family Hardiness Index, Brief FAM) 1 year later. Results Factor structures of PMI and FICD were supported; both demonstrated internal consistency, temporal stability, and convergent and discriminant validity. After 1 year, PMI and FICD jointly predicted depressive symptoms, parenting stress, family hardiness, and family adjustment. Conclusion PMI and FICD can identify mothers of CWD at risk for poor psychological well-being to increase the specificity of supports

A longitudinal investigation of repressive coping and ageing

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Aging & Mental Health on October 2016, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13607863.2015.1060941.Two studies investigated the possibility that repressive coping is more prevalent in older adults and that this represents a developmental progression rather than a cohort effect. Study 1 examined repressive coping and mental health cross-sectionally in young and old adults. Study 2 examined whether there was a developmental progression of repressive coping prevalence rates in a longitudinal sample of older adults.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio