Experimental droughts with rainout shelters: a methodological review

Forecast increases in the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts with climate change may have extreme and extensive ecological consequences. There are currently hundreds of published, ongoing, and new drought experiments worldwide aimed to assess ecological sensitivity to drought and identify the mechanisms governing resistance and resilience. To date, the results from these experiments have varied widely, and thus, patterns of drought sensitivities and the underlying mechanisms have been difficult to discern. Here we examined 89 published drought experiments, along with their associated historical precipitation records to (1) identify where and how drought experiments have been imposed, (2) determine the extremity of drought treatments in the context of historical climate, and (3) assess the influence of ambient precipitation variability on the magnitude of drought experiments. In general, drought experiments were most common in water-limited ecosystems, such as grasslands, and were often shortterm, as 80% were 1–4 yr in duration. When placed in a historical context, the majority of drought experiments imposed extreme drought, with 61% below the 5th, and 43% below the 1st percentile of the 50-yr annual precipitation distribution. We also determined that interannual precipitation variability had a large and potentially underappreciated effect on the magnitude of drought treatments due to the co-varying nature of control and drought precipitation inputs. Thus, detecting significant ecological effects in drought experiments is strongly influenced by the interaction between experimental drought magnitude, precipitation variability, and key ecological thresholds. The patterns that emerged from this study have important implications for the design and interpretation of drought experiments and also highlight critical gaps in our understanding of the ecological effects of drought

Vegetation Dynamics at the Upper Reaches of a Tropical Montane Forest are Driven by Disturbance Over the Past 7300 Years

We assessed tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) sensitivity to natural disturbance by drought, fire, and dieback with a 7300-year-long paleorecord. We analyzed pollen assemblages, charcoal accumulation rates, and higher plant biomarker compounds (average chain length [ACL] of n-alkanes) in sediments from Wai'ānapanapa, a small lake near the upper forest limit and the mean trade wind inversion (TWI) in Hawai‘i. The paleorecord of ACL suggests increased drought frequency and a lower TWI elevation from 2555–1323 cal yr B.P. and 606–334 cal yr B.P. Charcoal began to accumulate and a novel fire regime was initiated ca. 880 cal yr B.P., followed by a decreased fire return interval at ca. 550 cal yr B.P. Diebacks occurred at 2931, 2161, 1162, and 306 cal yr B.P., and two of these were independent of drought or fire. Pollen assemblages indicate that on average species composition changed only 2.8% per decade. These dynamics, though slight, were significantly associated with disturbance. The direction of species composition change varied with disturbance type. Drought was associated with significantly more vines and lianas; fire was associated with an increase in the tree fern Sadleria and indicators of open, disturbed landscapes at the expense of epiphytic ferns; whereas stand-scale dieback was associated with an increase in the tree fern Cibotium. Though this cloud forest was dynamic in response to past disturbance, it has recovered, suggesting a resilient TMCF with no evidence of state change in vegetation type (e.g., grassland or shrubland)

The patchwork governance of ecologically available water: A case study in the Upper Missouri Headwaters, Montana, United States

Institutional authority and responsibility for allocating water to ecosystems (“ecologically available water” [EAW]) is spread across local, state, and federal agencies, which operate under a range of statutes, mandates, and planning processes. We use a case study of the Upper Missouri Headwaters Basin in southwestern Montana, United States, to illustrate this fragmented institutional landscape. Our goals are to (a) describe the patchwork of agencies and institutional actors whose intersecting authorities and actions influence the EAW in the study basin; (b) describe the range of governance mechanisms these agencies use, including laws, policies, administrative programs, and planning processes; and (c) assess the extent to which the collective governance regime creates gaps in responsibility. We find the water governance regime includes a range of nested mechanisms that in various ways facilitate or hinder the governance of EAW. We conclude the current multilevel governance regime leaves certain aspects of EAW unaddressed and does not adequately account for the interconnections between water in different parts of the ecosystem, creating integrative gaps. We suggest that more intentional and robust coordination could provide a means to address these gaps

Unfamiliar Territory: Emerging Themes for Ecological Drought Research and Management

Novel forms of drought are emerging globally, due to climate change, shifting teleconnection patterns, expanding human water use, and a history of human influence on the environment that increases the probability of transformational ecological impacts. These costly ecological impacts cascade to human communities, and understanding this changing drought landscape is one of today\u27s grand challenges. By using a modified horizon-scanning approach that integrated scientists, managers, and decision-makers, we identified the emerging issues in ecological drought that represent key challenges to timely and effective responses. Here we review the themes that most urgently need attention, including novel drought conditions, the potential for transformational drought impacts, and the need for anticipatory drought management. This horizon scan and review provides a roadmap to facilitate the research and management innovations that will support forward-looking, co-developed approaches to reduce the risk of drought to our socio-ecological systems during the 21st century. We used a modified horizon-scanning approach that brought together scientists, managers, and decision-makers to identify the emerging issues around the ecological impacts from drought that represent key challenges to effective response. We found three broad themes within ecological drought that need attention, including novel drought conditions, transformational drought impacts, and anticipatory drought management. This horizon scan and integrated review provides a roadmap to inspire the needed research and management innovations to reduce the risk of 21st century droughts

Landscape-scale drivers of glacial ecosystem change in the montane forests of the eastern Andean flank, Ecuador

Understanding the impact of landscape-scale disturbance events during the last glacial period is vital in accu- rately reconstructing the ecosystem dynamics of montane environments. Here, a sedimentary succession from the tropical montane cloud forest of the eastern Andean flank of Ecuador provides evidence of the role of non- climate drivers of vegetation change (volcanic events, fire regime and herbivory) during the late-Pleistocene. Multiproxy analysis (pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal, geochemistry and carbon content) of the se- diments, radiocarbon dated to ca. 45–42 ka, provide a snap shot of the depositional environment, vegetation community and non-climate drivers of ecosystem dynamics. The geomorphology of the Vinillos study area, along with the organic‐carbon content, and aquatic remains suggest deposition took place near a valley floor in a swamp or shallow water environment. The pollen assemblage initially composed primarily of herbaceous types (Poaceae-Asteraceae-Solanaceae) is replaced by assemblages characterised by Andean forest taxa, (first Melastomataceae-Weinmannia-Ilex, and later, Alnus-Hedyosmum-Myrica). The pollen assemblages have no modern analogues in the tropical montane cloud forest of Ecuador. High micro-charcoal and rare macro-charcoal abundances co-occur with volcanic tephra deposits suggesting transportation from extra-local regions and that volcanic eruptions were an important source of ignition in the wider glacial landscape. The presence of the coprophilous fungi Sporormiella reveals the occurrence of herbivores in the glacial montane forest landscape. Pollen analysis indicates a stable regional vegetation community, with changes in vegetation population co- varying with large volcanic tephra deposits suggesting that the structure of glacial vegetation at Vinillos was driven by volcanic activity

Defining Ecological Drought for the Twenty-First Century

THE RISING RISK OF DROUGHT. Droughts of the twenty-first century are characterized by hotter temperatures, longer duration, and greater spatial extent, and are increasingly exacerbated by human demands for water. This situation increases the vulnerability of ecosystems to drought, including a rise in drought-driven tree mortality globally (Allen et al. 2015) and anticipated ecosystem transformations from one state to another—for example, forest to a shrubland (Jiang et al. 2013). When a drought drives changes within ecosystems, there can be a ripple effect through human communities that depend on those ecosystems for critical goods and services (Millar and Stephenson 2015). For example, the “Millennium Drought” (2002–10) in Australia caused unanticipated losses to key services provided by hydrological ecosystems in the Murray–Darling basin—including air quality regulation, waste treatment, erosion prevention, and recreation. The costs of these losses exceeded AUD $800 million, as resources were spent to replace these services and adapt to new drought-impacted ecosystems (Banerjee et al. 2013). Despite the high costs to both nature and people, current drought research, management, and policy perspectives often fail to evaluate how drought affects ecosystems and the “natural capital” they provide to human communities. Integrating these human and natural dimensions of drought is an essential step toward addressing the rising risk of drought in the twenty-first century

Coordinated hydrological regimes in the Indo-Pacific region during the past two millennia

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography 25 (2010): PA1102, doi:10.1029/2009PA001871.Instrumental data suggest that major shifts in tropical Pacific atmospheric dynamics and hydrology have occurred within the past century, potentially in response to anthropogenic warming. To better understand these trends, we use the hydrogen isotopic ratios of terrestrial higher plant leaf waxes (δDwax) in marine sediments from southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, to compile a detailed reconstruction of central Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) hydrologic variability spanning most of the last two millennia. Our paleodata are highly correlated with a monsoon reconstruction from Southeast Asia, indicating that intervals of strong East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) activity are associated with a weaker Indonesian monsoon (IM). Furthermore, the centennial-scale oscillations in our data follow known changes in Northern Hemisphere climate (e.g., the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period) implying a dynamic link between Northern Hemisphere temperatures and IPWP hydrology. The inverse relationship between the EASM and IM suggests that migrations of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and associated changes in monsoon strength caused synoptic hydrologic shifts in the IPWP throughout most of the past two millennia.This research was supported by the U.S. NSF, the Ocean and Climate Change Institute at WHOI, and a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship to J. Tierney

Impact assessment of a super-typhoon on Hong Kong’s secondary vegetation and recommendations for restoration of resilience in the forest succession

Typhoons of varying intensities severely impact ecosystem functioning in tropical regions and their increasing frequencies and intensities due to global warming pose new challenges for effective forest restoration. This study examines the impact of a super-typhoon (Mangkhut) on the regenerating native secondary forest and exotic monocultural plantations in the degraded tropical landscape of Hong Kong. The super typhoon, which hit Hong Kong on 16 September 2018 lasted for 10 hours (09:40 to 19:40) and was the most severe storm affecting Hong Kong over the past 100 years. Hong Kong’s secondary forest is a mosaic of forest patches recovering through natural succession since 1945, and plantation stands of exotic monocultural species. We determine the loss in biomass by performing NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) difference analysis using two Landsat-8 multispectral images acquired before and after the typhoon. This the assessment of typhoon impacts according to successional age group, structural stages of vegetation, landscape topography, and on stands of exotic plantations. Results indicate that hilltops, open shrubland and grassland were hard hit, especially on southwest and southeast facing slopes, and almost 90 % of the landscape showed abnormal change. Patches of exotic monoculture plantation (Lophostemon confertus, Melaleuca quinquenervia, and Acacia confusa) were the most severely damaged by the typhoon, showing more than 25 % decrease in NDVI, followed by young secondary forest. Field observations confirmed that in exotic plantations, almost the entire canopy was destroyed and there is no generation of young under story trees to replace those lost. The affected young forests and shrublands are mainly dominated by fast growing, soft wooded early successional species such as Mallotus paniculatus or Machilus chekiangensis as well as weak, multi-trunked, fungus infected, or other structurally deficient trees, which were uprooted or seriously damaged by typhoon gusts. The net effect of typhoons in Hong Kong’s degraded landscape, appears to reinforce the arrested succession of dense, less diverse stands of weaker early successional species due to the absence of late and middle successional species and native dispersal agents. In order to obtain a stronger, more resilient forest, it would be necessary to enhance biodiversity by artificially planting a species mix, which resembles primary forests in the region. This could be achieved by thinning of young secondary forest followed by enhancement planting of pockets of high diversity forest