Inconvenient glow: Cliometrics and the "golden age" of capitalism

This paper aims to criticize the recent cliometrics literature on the so-called "golden age" of capitalism. The works of Nicholas Crafts, Gianni Toniolo, and Barry Eichengreen are reconstructed in order to reveal the main characteristics of this research program. Its narrow quantitative focus, its reliance on theoretical propositions borrowed from neoclassical economics, and its auspicious interpretation of the postwar reconstruction are the main focus of the criticism presented. Finally, the cliometricians' attempt to historicize the "golden age" and de-historicize the following decades is related to the ideological understanding of the recent decades as a period of "great moderation."

Cliometrics and Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory and Applications

The paper discusses a range of modern time series methods that have become popular in the past 20 years and considers their usefulness for cliometrics research both in theory and via a range of applications. Issues such as, spurious regression, unit roots, cointegration, persistence, causality, structural time series methods, including time varying parameter models, are introduced as are the estimation and testing implications that they involve. Applications include a discussion of the timing and potential causes of the British Industrial Revolution, income „convergence ‟ and the long run behaviour of English Real Wages 1264 – 1913. Finally some new and potentially useful developments are discussed including the mildly explosive processes; graphical modelling and long memory

Post-war Growth: An Overview

The paper comprises a thorough survey of the literature on growth in Western Europe since 1950. This experience is put in the context both of long-run historical trends and the ideas emanating from recent work in growth economics. The exceptional nature of the Golden Age (c.1950-73) is confirmed and given an historical interpretation. Catch-up growth is seen as central to this period but not to be a pure neoclassical phenomenon. It is argued that theory has run ahead of measurement and that future research will need to look much more carefully at proxies for human capital formation and at determinants of ex-ante returns on investment.Economic Growth; Europe; Investment; Productivity Growth

European Economic Growth, 1950-2005: An Overview

This paper surveys the extensive literature on European economic growth since 1950. It presents an overview of comparative growth performance together with benchmarked growth accounting estimates. The growth experience is considered in terms of three periods, the Golden Age of 1950-73, the Growth Slowdown of 1973-1995, and the New Economy period since the mid-1990s, both across countries and across regions. The key conclusion is that study of the historical record underlines the importance of incentive structures for growth outcomes while sustaining growth performance over the long run requires the (often difficult) adaptation of institutions and policies as catch up becomes more complete and new technological epochs arrive.catch-up growth; Golden Age; ICT; slowdown; total factor productivity

Post-war growth An overview

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