Worldwide prevalence, genotype distribution and management of hepatitis C

epatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the leading causes of chronic liver disease, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma, resulting in major global public health concerns. The HCV infection is unevenly distributed worldwide, with variations in prevalence across and within countries. The studies on molecular epidemiology conducted in several countries provide an essential supplement for a comprehensive knowledge of HCV epidemiology, genotypes, and subtypes, along with providing information on the impact of current and earlier migratory flows. HCV is phylogenetically classified into 8 major genotypes and 57 subtypes. HCV genotype and subtype distribution differ according to geographic origin and transmission risk category. Unless people with HCV infection are detected and treated appropriately, the number of deaths due to the disease will continue to increase. In 2015, 1.75 million new viral infections were mostly due to unsafe healthcare procedures and drug use injections. In the same year, access to direct-acting antivirals was challenging and varied in developing and developed countries, affecting HCV cure rates based on their availability. The World Health Assembly, in 2016, approved a global strategy to achieve the elimination of the HCV public health threat by 2030 (by reducing new infections by 90% and deaths by 65%). Globally, countries are implementing policies and measures to eliminate HCV risk based on their distribution of genotypes and prevalence

Identification of na\uefve HCV-1 patients with chronic hepatitis who may benefit from dual therapy with peg-interferon and ribavirin

Background & Aims The pool of HCV genotype 1 patients likely to be cured by peg-interferon and ribavirin remains to be quantified. Methods In 1045 patients treated with peg-interferon and ribavirin, two therapeutic strategies were confronted: the first one evaluated only baseline variables associated with sustained virological response (SVR), and the second one included the rapid virologic response (RVR) in addition to baseline predictors. An 80% SVR rate was the threshold to retain a strategy as clinically relevant. Results Overall, 414 patients (39.6%) attained SVR. In the first strategy, the hierarchy of features independently associated with SVR was IL28B CC genotype (OR 5.082; CI 3.637-7.101), low (80% SVR threshold. Only 26.6% of no-RVR patients attained SVR. Among the 255 RVR patients, the likelihood of SVR was 61.8% in those with unfavorable predictors, 80% in the presence of a single predictor, and 100% when both predictors were present. By using this model, 200 patients (19.1%) were predicted to have an 80% chance of being cured with dual therapy. Conclusions A consistent subset of na\uefve HCV-1 patients, identified by some baseline characteristics and RVR, may benefit from dual treatment with peg-interferon and ribavirin. \ua9 2013 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Decline of Prevalence of Resistance Associated Substitutions to NS3 and NS5A inhibitors at DAA-failure in Hepatitis C Virus in Italy over the years 2015 to 2018

Background: A minority of patients fail to eliminate HCV and resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) are commonly detected at failure of interferon-free DAA regimens. Material and methods: Within the Italian network VIRONET-C, the prevalence of NS3/NS5A/NS5B RASs was retrospectively evaluated in patients who failed an EASL recommended DAA-regimen in 2015-2018. NS3, NS5A and NS5B Sanger sequencing was performed using homemade protocols. The geno2pheno system was used to infer HCV-genotype/subtype and predict drug resistance. The changes in the prevalence of RASs over time were evaluated using the chi-square test for trend, predictors of RASs at failure were analysed by logistic regression. Results: We included 386 real-life HCV pts failed to recommended DAA regimens: 92% (271/294) Italians, 75% (286/384) males, median age was 56 years (IQR 52-61); 106 (28%) were treatment-experienced: 91 (86%) with IFN-based treatments, 26 (25%) with DAA-based regimens. Metavir fibrosis stage was F4 in 76% (245/322), 65% (240/369) had clinical cirrhosis. Patients with HIV and HBV coinfection were 10% (33/317) and 8% (6/72), respectively. HCV genotype (G) was G1b in 122 pts (32%), G3a 103 (27%), G1a 97 (25%), G4d 30 (8%), G2c 19 (5%), G3h 5 (1.3%), G4a 4 (1%) and 1 (0.3%) each for G3g, G4n/o/v. DAA regimens were: LDV/SOF in 115 (30%), DCV/SOF in 103 (27%), 3D in 83 (21%), EBR/GRZ in 32 (8%), VEL/SOF in 29 (7%), GLE/PIB in 18 (5%) and 2D in 6 (2%); ribavirin was administered in 123 (32%). Antiviral treatment was completed by 352 pts (91%), while 34 (9%) discontinued prematurely. The NS5A fasta-sequence was available for all pts, NS5B for 361 (94%), NS3 for 365 (95%). The prevalence of any RASs was 87%, namely 78/135 (58%) in NS3, 303/359 (85%) in NS5A, 114/286 (40%) in NS5B (Tab 1). The prevalence of any RASs significantly declined from 2015 to 2018 (100%, 13/13 vs 81%, 101/125, p=0.01): NS5A RASs from 100%, 13/13 to 76%, 76/100 (p<0.001), NS3 RASs from 88%, 7/8 to 44%, 28/63 (p=0.02), while NS5B RASs remained stable. Independent predictors of any RASs included liver cirrhosis/advanced fibrosis (AOR 3.72, CI 95% 1.51-9.17, p=0.004) and genotype (G2 vs G1a AOR 0.01, CI 95% 0.0-0.3, p<0.001; G3 vs G1a AOR 0.22, CI 95% 0.05-0.98, p<0.047; G4 vs G1a AOR 0.13, CI 95% 0.03-0.63, p<0.011), with a modest effect scored for past treatment (AOR 3.45, CI 95% 1.00-11.92, p=0.05), after adjusting for DAA regimen and year of genotype. Notably, full activity was predicted for GLE/PIB in 75.9% of cases and for at least two components of VEL/SOF/VOX in 59% of cases and no case with full-resistance to either regimen was found (Tab 2). Conclusions: Despite decreasing prevalence over the years, RASs remain a common signature at virological failure of DAA treatment, particularly in patients with the highest grade of liver fibrosis. Their distribution may vary according to genotype, so the identification of RASs after failure could play a crucial role in optimizing retreatment strategies

Overview of prognostic systems for hepatocellular carcinoma and ITA.LI.CA external validation of MESH and CNLC classifications

Prognostic assessment in patients with HCC remains an extremely difficult clinical task due to the complexity of this cancer where tumour characteristics interact with degree of liver dysfunction, patient general health status, and a large span of available treatment options. Several prognostic systems have been proposed in the last three decades, both from the Asian and European/North American countries. Prognostic scores, such as the CLIP score and the recent MESH score, have been generated on a solid statistical basis from real life population data, while staging systems, such as the BCLC scheme and the recent CNLC classification, have been created by experts according to recent HCC prognostic evidences from the literature. A third category includes combined prognostic systems that can be used both as prognostic scores and staging systems. A recent example is the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system including either a prognostic score and a simplified staging system. This review focuses first on an overview of the main prognostic systems for HCC classified according to the above three categories, and, second, on a comprehensive description of the methodology required for a correct comparison between different systems in terms of prognostic performance. In this second section the main studies in the literature comparing different prognostic systems are described in detail. Lastly, a formal comparison between the last prognostic systems proposed for each of the above three categories is performed using a large Italian database including 6882 HCC patients in order to concretely apply the comparison rules previously described

DECLINE OF PREVALENCE OF RESISTANCE ASSOCIATED SUBSTITUTIONS TO NS3 AND NS5A INHIBITORS AT DAA- FAILURE IN HEPATITIS C VIRUS IN ITALY OVER THE YEARS 2015 TO 2018

Background: A minority of patients fails to eliminate HCV and resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) are commonly detected at failure of interferon-free DAA regimens . Methods: Within the Italian network VIRONET-C, the prevalence of NS3/NS5A/NS5B RASs was retrospectively evaluated in patients who failed an EASL recommended DAA-regimen in 2015-2018 . The geno2pheno system and Sorbo MC et al. Drug Resistance Updates 2018 were used to infer HCV- genotype/subtype and predict drug resistance . The changes in prevalence of RASs over time were evaluated by chi-square test for trend, predictors of RASs at failure were analysed by logistic regression . Results: We included 386 HCV infected patients: 75% males, median age was 56 years (IQR 52-61), metavir fibrosis stage F4 in 76%; 106 (28%) were treatment- experienced: 91 (86%) with IFN-based treatments, 26 (25%) with DAAs. Patients with HIV and HBV coinfection were 10% (33/317) and 8% (6/72), respectively. HCV genotype was 1b in 122 pts (32%), 3 in 109 (28%), 1a in 97 (25%), 4 in 37 (10%), 2 in 21 (5%). DAA regimens were: LDV/SOF in 115 (30%), DCV/SOF in 103 (27%), 3D in 83 (21%), EBR/GRZ in 32 (8%), VEL/SOF in 29 (7%), GLE/PIB in 18 (5%) and 2D in 6 (2%); ribavirin was administered in 123 (32%) . The NS5A fasta-sequence was available for all patients, NS5B for 361 (94%), NS3 for 365 (95%) . According to the DAA failed the prevalence of any RASs was 90%, namely 80/135 (59%) in NS3, 313/359 (87%) in NS5A, 114/286 (40%) in NS5B . The prevalence of any RASs significantly declined from 2015 to 2018 (93% vs 70%, p=0.004): NS5A RASs from 90% to 72% (p=0 .29), NS3 RASs from 74% to 18% (p<0 .001), while NS5B RASs remained stable . Independent predictors of any RASs included advanced fibrosis (AOR 6.1, CI 95% 1.8-20.3, p=0 .004) and genotype (G2 vs G1a AOR 0 .03, CI 95% 0 .002- 0 .31, p=0 .004; G3 vs G1a AOR 0 .08, CI 95% 0 .01-0 .62, p=0 .02; G4 vs G1a AOR 0 .05, CI 95% 0 .006-0 .46, p=0 .008), after adjusting for age, previous HCV treatment and year of genotype . Notably, full activity was predicted for GLE/PIB in 75% of cases and for at least two components of VEL/SOF/VOX in 53% of cases, no case with full-resistance to either regimen was found . Conclusion: Despite decreasing prevalence over the years, RASs remain common at virological failure of DAA treatment, particularly in patients with the highest grade of liver fibrosis. The identification of RASs after failure could play a crucial role in optimizing retreatment strategies

Economic consequences of investing in anti-HCV antiviral treatment from the Italian NHS perspective : a real-world-based analysis of PITER data

OBJECTIVE: We estimated the cost consequence of Italian National Health System (NHS) investment in direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy according to hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment access policies in Italy. METHODS: A multistate, 20-year time horizon Markov model of HCV liver disease progression was developed. Fibrosis stage, age and genotype distributions were derived from the Italian Platform for the Study of Viral Hepatitis Therapies (PITER) cohort. The treatment efficacy, disease progression probabilities and direct costs in each health state were obtained from the literature. The break-even point in time (BPT) was defined as the period of time required for the cumulative costs saved to recover the Italian NHS investment in DAA treatment. Three different PITER enrolment periods, which covered the full DAA access evolution in Italy, were considered. RESULTS: The disease stages of 2657 patients who consecutively underwent DAA therapy from January 2015 to December 2017 at 30 PITER clinical centres were standardized for 1000 patients. The investment in DAAs was considered to equal €25 million, €15 million, and €9 million in 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. For patients treated in 2015, the BPT was not achieved, because of the disease severity of the treated patients and high DAA prices. For 2016 and 2017, the estimated BPTs were 6.6 and 6.2 years, respectively. The total cost savings after 20 years were €50.13 and €55.50 million for 1000 patients treated in 2016 and 2017, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study may be a useful tool for public decision makers to understand how HCV clinical and epidemiological profiles influence the economic burden of HCV

L'Italia come modello per l'Europa e per il mondo nelle politiche sanitarie per il trattamento dell'epatite cronica da HCV

The World Health Organization foresees the elimination of HCV infection by 2030. In light of this and the curre nt, nearly worldwide, restriction in direct-acting agents (DAA) accessibility due to their high price, we aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of two alternative DAA treatment policies: Policy 1 (universal): treat all patients, regardless of the fibrosis stage; Policy 2 (prioritized): treat only priori tized patients and delay treatment of the remaining patients until reaching stage F3. T he model was based on patient’s data from the PITER cohort. We demonstrated that extending HC V treatment of patients in any fibrosis stage improves health outcomes and is cost-effective