A Recurrent Neural Network Survival Model: Predicting Web User Return Time

The size of a website's active user base directly affects its value. Thus, it is important to monitor and influence a user's likelihood to return to a site. Essential to this is predicting when a user will return. Current state of the art approaches to solve this problem come in two flavors: (1) Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based solutions and (2) survival analysis methods. We observe that both techniques are severely limited when applied to this problem. Survival models can only incorporate aggregate representations of users instead of automatically learning a representation directly from a raw time series of user actions. RNNs can automatically learn features, but can not be directly trained with examples of non-returning users who have no target value for their return time. We develop a novel RNN survival model that removes the limitations of the state of the art methods. We demonstrate that this model can successfully be applied to return time prediction on a large e-commerce dataset with a superior ability to discriminate between returning and non-returning users than either method applied in isolation.Comment: Accepted into ECML PKDD 2018; 8 figures and 1 tabl

Cytoadherence and virulence - the case of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria.

BACKGROUND: Cytoadherence of infected red blood cells to brain endothelium is causally implicated in malarial coma, one of the severe manifestations of falciparum malaria. Cytoadherence is mediated by specific binding of variant parasite antigens, expressed on the surface of infected erythrocytes, to endothelial receptors including, ICAM-1, VCAM and CD36. In fatal cases of severe falciparum malaria with coma, blood vessels in the brain are characteristically congested with infected erythrocytes. Brain sections from a fatal case of knowlesi malaria, but without coma, were similarly congested with infected erythrocytes. The objective of this study was to determine the binding phenotype of Plasmodium knowlesi infected human erythrocytes to recombinant human ICAM-1, VCAM and CD36. METHODS: Five patients with PCR-confirmed P. knowlesi malaria were recruited into the study with consent between April and August 2010. Pre-treatment venous blood was washed and cultured ex vivo to increase the proportion of schizont-infected erythrocytes. Cultured blood was seeded into Petri dishes with triplicate areas coated with ICAM-1, VCAM and CD36. Following incubation at 37°C for one hour the dishes were washed and the number of infected erythrocytes bound/mm2 to PBS control areas and to recombinant human ICAM-1 VCAM and CD36 coated areas were recorded. Each assay was performed in duplicate. Assay performance was monitored with the Plasmodium falciparum clone HB3. RESULTS: Blood samples were cultured ex vivo for up to 14.5 h (mean 11.3 ± 1.9 h) to increase the relative proportion of mature trophozoite and schizont-infected red blood cells to at least 50% (mean 65.8 ± 17.51%). Three (60%) isolates bound significantly to ICAM-1 and VCAM, one (20%) isolate bound to VCAM and none of the five bound significantly to CD36. CONCLUSIONS: Plasmodium knowlesi infected erythrocytes from human subjects bind in a specific but variable manner to the inducible endothelial receptors ICAM-1 and VCAM. Binding to the constitutively-expressed endothelial receptor CD36 was not detected. Further work will be required to define the pathological consequences of these interactions

Late-onset bloodstream infection and perturbed maturation of the gastrointestinal microbiota in premature infants

Late-onset bloodstream infection (LO-BSI) is a common complication of prematurity, and lack of timely diagnosis and treatment can have life-threatening consequences. We sought to identify clinical characteristics and microbial signatures in the gastrointestinal microbiota preceding diagnosis of LO-BSI in premature infants.Daily faecal samples and clinical data were collected over two years from 369 premature neonates (<32 weeks gestation). We analysed samples from 22 neonates who developed LO-BSI and 44 matched control infants. Next-generation sequencing of 16S rRNA gene regions amplified by PCR from total faecal DNA was used to characterise the microbiota of faecal samples preceding diagnosis from infants with LO-BSI and controls. Culture of selected samples was undertaken, and bacterial isolates identified using MALDI-TOF. Antibiograms from bloodstream and faecal isolates were compared to explore strain similarity.From the week prior to diagnosis, infants with LO-BSI had higher proportions of faecal aerobes/facultative anaerobes compared to controls. Risk factors for LO-BSI were identified by multivariate analysis. Enterobacteriaceal sepsis was associated with antecedent multiple lines, low birth weight and a faecal microbiota with prominent Enterobacteriaceae. Staphylococcal sepsis was associated with Staphylococcus OTU faecal over-abundance, and the number of days prior to diagnosis of mechanical ventilation and of the presence of centrally-placed lines. In 12 cases, the antibiogram of the bloodstream isolate matched that of a component of the faecal microbiota in the sample collected closest to diagnosis.The gastrointestinal tract is an important reservoir for LO-BSI organisms, pathogens translocating across the epithelial barrier. LO-BSI is associated with an aberrant microbiota, with abundant staphylococci and Enterobacteriaceae and a failure to mature towards predominance of obligate anaerobes

The blocks of the partition algebra in positive characteristic

In this paper we describe the blocks of the partition algebra over a field of positive characteristic

A question of scale: Human migrations writ large and small

Several recent papers illustrate the importance of migration and gene flow in molding the patterns of genetic variation observed in humans today. We place the varied demographic processes covered by these terms into a more general framework, and discuss some of the challenges facing attempts to reconstruct past human mobility and determine its influence on our genetic heritage

Protodeboronation of Heteroaromatic, Vinyl, and Cyclopropyl Boronic Acids: pH-Rate Profiles, Autocatalysis, and Disproportionation

pH–rate profiles for aqueous–organic protodeboronation of 18 boronic acids, many widely viewed as unstable, have been studied by NMR and DFT. Rates were pH-dependent, and varied substantially between the boronic acids, with rate maxima that varied over 6 orders of magnitude. A mechanistic model containing five general pathways (k1–k5) has been developed, and together with input of [B]tot, KW, Ka, and KaH, the protodeboronation kinetics can be correlated as a function of pH (1–13) for all 18 species. Cyclopropyl and vinyl boronic acids undergo very slow protodeboronation, as do 3- and 4-pyridyl boronic acids (t0.5 > 1 week, pH 12, 70 °C). In contrast, 2-pyridyl and 5-thiazolyl boronic acids undergo rapid protodeboronation (t0.5 ≈ 25–50 s, pH 7, 70 °C), via fragmentation of zwitterionic intermediates. Lewis acid additives (e.g., Cu, Zn salts) can attenuate (2-pyridyl) or accelerate (5-thiazolyl and 5-pyrazolyl) fragmentation. Two additional processes compete when the boronic acid and the boronate are present in sufficient proportions (pH = pKa ± 1.6): (i) self-/autocatalysis and (ii) sequential disproportionations of boronic acid to borinic acid and borane

Using technology to deliver cancer follow-up : a systematic review

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Carboxyhaemoglobin levels and their determinants in older British men

Background: Although there has been concern about the levels of carbon monoxide exposure, particularly among older people, little is known about COHb levels and their determinants in the general population. We examined these issues in a study of older British men.Methods: Cross-sectional study of 4252 men aged 60-79 years selected from one socially representative general practice in each of 24 British towns and who attended for examination between 1998 and 2000. Blood samples were measured for COHb and information on social, household and individual factors assessed by questionnaire. Analyses were based on 3603 men measured in or close to (< 10 miles) their place of residence.Results: The COHb distribution was positively skewed. Geometric mean COHb level was 0.46% and the median 0.50%; 9.2% of men had a COHb level of 2.5% or more and 0.1% of subjects had a level of 7.5% or more. Factors which were independently related to mean COHb level included season (highest in autumn and winter), region (highest in Northern England), gas cooking (slight increase) and central heating (slight decrease) and active smoking, the strongest determinant. Mean COHb levels were more than ten times greater in men smoking more than 20 cigarettes a day (3.29%) compared with non-smokers (0.32%); almost all subjects with COHb levels of 2.5% and above were smokers (93%). Pipe and cigar smoking was associated with more modest increases in COHb level. Passive cigarette smoking exposure had no independent association with COHb after adjustment for other factors. Active smoking accounted for 41% of variance in COHb level and all factors together for 47%.Conclusion: An appreciable proportion of men have COHb levels of 2.5% or more at which symptomatic effects may occur, though very high levels are uncommon. The results confirm that smoking (particularly cigarette smoking) is the dominant influence on COHb levels

Pediatrics

OBJECTIVESTo describe the prevalence and secular trends of high weight-for-length among infants (ages, 3\u201323 months) in the biennial US Department of Agriculture Women, Infants, and Children Program and Participants Characteristic (WIC-PC) Survey from 2000 through 2014 (n = 16 927 120).METHODSWeight-for-length was considered to be \u201chigh\u201d if it was 652 SDs above the sex-and age-specific median in the World Health Organization growth standards. Poisson regression was used to calculate adjusted prevalence ratios.RESULTSThe overall prevalence of high weight-for-length increased from 13.4% in 2000 to 14.5% in 2004, remained constant until 2010, and then decreased by >2 percentage points (to 12.3%) through 2014. The prevalence of high weight-for-length was associated with sex (higher among boys), race-ethnicity (highest among American Indians/Alaskan Natives), and with both age (positive) and family income (inverse). The secular trends, however, were fairly similar within categories of these variables. From 2010 to 2014, the prevalence of high weight-for-length decreased in 40 states and 3 (of 5) US territories, with the largest decreases seen in Puerto Rico ( 129 percentage points) and Kentucky ( 127 percentage points), and the largest increase (+2 percentage points) seen in West Virginia.CONCLUSIONSAlthough the current results cannot be considered representative of infants in the populations, the prevalence of a high weight-for-length has decreased among infants in WIC-PC since 2010. These decreases were similar across categories of most characteristics, but there were substantial differences across jurisdictions, possibly reflecting differences in policy and local programs that target maternal and infant health.20162018-01-01T00:00:00ZCC999999/Intramural CDC HHS/United States27965380PMC5359001777