Predicting the deforestation-trend under different carbon-prices

BACKGROUND: Global carbon stocks in forest biomass are decreasing by 1.1 Gt of carbon annually, owing to continued deforestation and forest degradation. Deforestation emissions are partly offset by forest expansion and increases in growing stock primarily in the extra-tropical north. Innovative financial mechanisms would be required to help reducing deforestation. Using a spatially explicit integrated biophysical and socio-economic land use model we estimated the impact of carbon price incentive schemes and payment modalities on deforestation. One payment modality is adding costs for carbon emission, the other is to pay incentives for keeping the forest carbon stock intact. RESULTS: Baseline scenario calculations show that close to 200 mil ha or around 5% of todays forest area will be lost between 2006 and 2025, resulting in a release of additional 17.5 GtC. Today's forest cover will shrink by around 500 million hectares, which is 1/8 of the current forest cover, within the next 100 years. The accumulated carbon release during the next 100 years amounts to 45 GtC, which is 15% of the total carbon stored in forests today. Incentives of 6 US$/tC for vulnerable standing biomass payed every 5 year will bring deforestation down by 50$/year. On the other hand a carbon tax of 12 $/tC harvested forest biomass will also cut deforestation by half. The tax income will, if enforced, decrease from 6 billion US$ in 2005 to 4.3 billion US$in 2025 and 0.7 billion US$ in 2100 due to decreasing deforestation speed. CONCLUSION: Avoiding deforestation requires financial mechanisms that make retention of forests economically competitive with the currently often preferred option to seek profits from other land uses. Incentive payments need to be at a very high level to be effective against deforestation. Taxes on the other hand will extract budgetary revenues from the regions which are already poor. A combination of incentives and taxes could turn out to be a viable solution for this problem. Increasing the value of forest land and thereby make it less easily prone to deforestation would act as a strong incentive to increase productivity of agricultural and fuelwood production, which could be supported by revenues generated by the deforestation tax

Entry screening to delay local transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>After the WHO issued the global alert for 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1), many national health agencies began to screen travelers on entry in airports, ports and border crossings to try to delay local transmission.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We reviewed entry screening policies adopted by different nations and ascertained dates of official report of the first laboratory-confirmed imported H1N1 case and the first laboratory-confirmed untraceable or 'local' H1N1 case.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Implementation of entry screening policies was associated with on average additional 7-12 day delays in local transmission compared to nations that did not implement entry screening, with lower bounds of 95% confidence intervals consistent with no additional delays and upper bounds extending to 20-30 day additional delays.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Entry screening may lead to short-term delays in local transmission of a novel strain of influenza virus. The resources required for implementation should be balanced against the expected benefits of entry screening.</p

Transmission Network Parameters Estimated From HIV Sequences for a Nationwide Epidemic

Background. Many studies of sexual behavior have shown that individuals vary greatly in their number of sexual partners over time, but it has proved difficult to obtain parameter estimates relating to the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission except in small-scale contact tracing studies. Recent developments in molecular phylodynamics have provided new routes to obtain these parameter estimates, and current clinical practice provides suitable data for entire infected populations

Imagining the future at the global and national scale: a comparative study of British and Dutch press coverage of Rio 1992 and Rio 2012

Climate change and imagined futures are intricately linked, discussed by policymakers and reported in the media. In this article we focus on the construction of future expectation in the press coverage of the 1992 and 2012 United Nations conferences in Rio de Janeiro in British and Dutch national newspapers. We use a novel combination of methods, semantic co-word networks and metaphor analysis to analyse imagined futures. Our findings show that between 1992 and 2012 there was a switch from future-oriented hope to past-oriented disappointment regarding implementing international agreements on climate change policy. While the UK focused on global issues, the Netherlands focused on national (including colonial) and local ones, reflecting different views and expectations about the future of climate change adaptation and mitigation

Gas storage

International audienceThe continuous increase of energy demands based on fossil fuels in the last years have lead to an increase of greenhouse gases (GHG) emission which strongly contribute to global warming. The main strategies to limit this phenomenon are related to the efficient capture of these gases and to the development of renewable energies sources with limited environmental impact. Particularly, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the main constituents of greenhouse gases while hydrogen (H2) is considered an alternative clean energy source to fossil fuels. Therefore, tremendous research to store these gases has been reported by several approaches and among them the physisorption on activated carbons (AC) have received significant attention. Their abundance, low cost and tunable porous structure and chemical functionalities with an existing wide range of precursors that includes bio-wastes make them ideal candidates for gas applications. This chapter presents the recent developments on CH4, CO2 and H2 storage by activated carbons with focus on biomass as precursor materials. An analysis of the main carbon properties affecting the AC's adsorption capacity (i.e. specific surface area, pore size and surface chemistry) is discussed in detail herein

Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report

"This report summarizes the findings of the three Working Group reports and provides a synthesis that specifically addresses the issues of concern to policymakers in the domain of climate change.