Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold

Individual variation in susceptibility and exposure is subject to selection by natural infection, accelerating the acquisition of immunity, and reducing herd immunity thresholds and epidemic final sizes. This is a manifestation of a wider population phenomenon known as “frailty variation”. Despite theoretical understanding, public health policies continue to be guided by mathematical models that leave out considerable variation and as a result inflate projected disease burdens and overestimate the impact of interventions. Here we focus on trajectories of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Scotland until November 2021. We fit models to series of daily deaths and infer relevant epidemiological parameters, including coefficients of variation and effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions which we find in agreement with independent empirical estimates based on contact surveys. Our estimates are robust to whether the analysed data series encompass one or two pandemic waves and enable projections compatible with subsequent dynamics. We conclude that vaccination programmes may have contributed modestly to the acquisition of herd immunity in populations with high levels of pre-existing naturally acquired immunity, while being crucial to protect vulnerable individuals from severe outcomes as the virus becomes endemic

Establishing temperate crustose early Holocene coralline algae as archives for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of the shallow water habitats of the Mediterranean Sea

Over the past decades, coralline algae have increasingly been used as archives of palaeoclimate information due to their seasonal growth bands and their vast distribution from high latitudes to the tropics. Traditionally, these reconstructions have been performed mainly on high latitude species, limiting the geographical area of their potential use. Here we assess the use of temperate crustose fossil coralline algae from shallow water habitats for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction to generate records of past climate change. We determine the potential of three different species of coralline algae, Lithothamnion minervae, Lithophyllum stictaeforme and Mesophyllum philippii, with different growth patterns, as archives for pH (δ11B) and temperature (Mg/Ca) reconstruction in the Mediterranean Sea. Mg concentration is driven by temperature but modulated by growth rate, which is controlled by species‐specific and intraspecific growth patterns. L. minervae is a good temperature recorder, showing a moderate warming trend in specimens from 11.37 cal ka BP (from 14.2 ± 0.4°C to 14.9 ± 0.15°C) to today. In contrast to Mg, all genera showed consistent values of boron isotopes (δ11B) suggesting a common control on boron incorporation. The recorded δ11B in modern and fossil coralline specimens is in agreement with literature data about early Holocene pH, opening new perspectives of coralline‐based, high‐resolution pH reconstructions in deep time

Observing the Sun with the Atacama Large Millimeter-submillimeter Array (ALMA): Fast-Scan Single-Dish Mapping

The Atacama Large Millimeter-submillimeter Array (ALMA) radio telescope has commenced science observations of the Sun starting in late 2016. Since the Sun is much larger than the field of view of individual ALMA dishes, the ALMA interferometer is unable to measure the background level of solar emission when observing the solar disk. The absolute temperature scale is a critical measurement for much of ALMA solar science, including the understanding of energy transfer through the solar atmosphere, the properties of prominences, and the study of shock heating in the chromosphere. In order to provide an absolute temperature scale, ALMA solar observing will take advantage of the remarkable fast-scanning capabilities of the ALMA 12m dishes to make single-dish maps of the full Sun. This article reports on the results of an extensive commissioning effort to optimize the mapping procedure, and it describes the nature of the resulting data. Amplitude calibration is discussed in detail: a path that utilizes the two loads in the ALMA calibration system as well as sky measurements is described and applied to commissioning data. Inspection of a large number of single-dish datasets shows significant variation in the resulting temperatures, and based on the temperature distributions we derive quiet-Sun values at disk center of 7300 K at lambda=3 mm and 5900 K at lambda=1.3 mm. These values have statistical uncertainties of order 100 K, but systematic uncertainties in the temperature scale that may be significantly larger. Example images are presented from two periods with very different levels of solar activity. At a resolution of order 25 arcsec, the 1.3 mm wavelength images show temperatures on the disk that vary over about a 2000 K range.Comment: Solar Physics, accepted: 24 pages, 13 figure

On the structure of the transition disk around TW Hya

For over a decade, the structure of the inner cavity in the transition disk of TW Hydrae has been a subject of debate. Modeling the disk with data obtained at different wavelengths has led to a variety of proposed disk structures. Rather than being inconsistent, the individual models might point to the different faces of physical processes going on in disks, such as dust growth and planet formation. Our aim is to investigate the structure of the transition disk again and to find to what extent we can reconcile apparent model differences. A large set of high-angular-resolution data was collected from near-infrared to centimeter wavelengths. We investigated the existing disk models and established a new self-consistent radiative-transfer model. A genetic fitting algorithm was used to automatize the parameter fitting. Simple disk models with a vertical inner rim and a radially homogeneous dust composition from small to large grains cannot reproduce the combined data set. Two modifications are applied to this simple disk model: (1) the inner rim is smoothed by exponentially decreasing the surface density in the inner ~3 AU, and (2) the largest grains (>100 um) are concentrated towards the inner disk region. Both properties can be linked to fundamental processes that determine the evolution of protoplanetary disks: the shaping by a possible companion and the different regimes of dust-grain growth, respectively. The full interferometric data set from near-infrared to centimeter wavelengths requires a revision of existing models for the TW Hya disk. We present a new model that incorporates the characteristic structures of previous models but deviates in two key aspects: it does not have a sharp edge at 4 AU, and the surface density of large grains differs from that of smaller grains. This is the first successful radiative-transfer-based model for a full set of interferometric data.Comment: 22 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

The first ALMA view of IRAS 16293-2422: Direct detection of infall onto source B and high-resolution kinematics of source A

Aims: We focus on the kinematical properties of a proto-binary to study the infall and rotation of gas towards its two protostellar components. Methods: We present ALMA Science Verification observations with high-spectral resolution of IRAS 16293-2422 at 220.2 GHz. The wealth of molecular lines in this source and the very high spectral resolution offered by ALMA allow us to study the gas kinematics with unprecedented detail. Results: We present the first detection of an inverse P-Cygni profile towards source B in the three brightest lines. The line profiles are fitted with a simple two-layer model to derive an infall rate of 4.5x10^-5 Msun/yr. This infall detection would rule-out the previously suggested possibility that source B is a T Tauri star. A position velocity diagram for source A shows evidence for rotation with an axis close to the line-of-sight.Comment: Accepted by A&A Letters. 4 pages, 3 figures, 3 appendices (one for Tables, one for additional figures). This second version includes small language modifications and changes to keep the letter within the 4 page limi

A dust and gas cavity in the disc around CQ Tau revealed by ALMA

The combination of high-resolution and sensitivity offered by ALMA is revolutionizing our understanding of protoplanetary discs, as their bulk gas and dust distributions can be studied independently. In this paper we present resolved ALMA observations of the continuum emission (\u3bb = 1.3 mm) and CO isotopologues (12CO, 13CO, C18O, J = 2 12 1) integrated intensity from the disc around the nearby (d = 162 pc), intermediate-mass (M = 1.67 M) pre-main-sequence star CQ Tau. The data show an inner depression in continuum and in both 13CO and C18O emission. We employ a thermo-chemical model of the disc reproducing both continuum and gas radial intensity profiles, together with the disc spectral energy distribution. The models show that a gas inner cavity with size between 15 and 25 au is needed to reproduce the data with a density depletion factor between 3c10 121 and 3c10 123. The radial profile of the distinct cavity in the dust continuum is described by a Gaussian ring centred at Rdust = 53 au and with a width of \u3c3 = 13 au. Three-dimensional gas and dust numerical simulations of a disc with an embedded planet at a separation from the central star of 3c20 au and with a mass of 3c6\u20139 MJup reproduce qualitatively the gas and dust profiles of the CQ Tau disc. However, a one-planet model appears not to be able to reproduce the dust Gaussian density profile predicted using the thermo-chemical modeling

Wood and bark residues in Oregon : trends in their use

The forest-products industries are most important to the state of Oregon. Oregon leads the nation in the production of plywood, lumber, and particle board. More than half of softwood plywood production in the United States came from Oregon at the time of this survey, and more than a fifth of the lumber and about a third of the particle board were produced in Oregon. Over 90 percent of the logs harvested in the state at the time of this survey were destined for sawmills and plywood plants. In producing lumber and plywood from logs, less than half of the entering log volume emerges as the finished primary product. That portion of the log remaining consists of such items as bark, sawdust, shavings, slabs; veneer trim, plywood trim, cores, and sander dust. This portion that remains after primary manufacture frequently is called residue.f Ouch of this residue formerly was considered waste and usually was disposed of by burning. But now a large portion of this residue material is recovered for other uses-primarily as raw material for paper and wood-composition board manufacture. If residue is not used, it presents a problem of disposal within allowable limits of pollution. Because these residue materials are a valuable raw material, we conducted a survey of virtually all sawmills and plywood plants in the state to determine how these residues were being used; to point out what quantities might be available for future use; and to note the changes that had occurred in residue usage since previous surveys. An additional objective was to obtain information on a material balance for sawmill and plywood plants, so that conversion factors could be developed for estimating average quantities of different types of residue generated from a given production of lumber or plywood. From these conversion factors, the average amount of a given type of residue that might be expected in producing a given board footage of lumber or a given square footage of plywood can be estimated

Reduced clinical and postmortem measures of cardiac pathology in subjects with advanced Alzheimer's Disease

Background. Epidemiological studies indicate a statistical linkage between atherosclerotic vascular disease (ATH) and Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD). Autopsy studies of cardiac disease in AD have been few and inconclusive. In this report, clinical and gross anatomic measures of cardiac disease were compared in deceased human subjects with and without AD. Methods. Clinically documented cardiovascular conditions from AD (n = 35) and elderly non-demented control subjects (n = 22) were obtained by review of medical records. Coronary artery stenosis and other gross anatomical measures, including heart weight, ventricular wall thickness, valvular circumferences, valvular calcifications and myocardial infarct number and volume were determined at autopsy. Results. Compared to non-demented age-similar control subjects, those with AD had significantly fewer total diagnosed clinical conditions (2.91 vs 4.18), decreased coronary artery stenosis (70.8 vs 74.8%), heart weight (402 vs 489 g for males; 319 vs 412 g for females) and valvular circumferences. Carriage of the Apolipoprotein E-ε4 allele did not influence the degree of coronary stenosis. Group differences in heart weight remained significant after adjustment for age, gender, body mass index and apolipoprotein E genotype while differences in coronary artery stenosis were significantly associated with body mass index alone. Conclusions. The results are in agreement with an emerging understanding that, while midlife risk factors for ATH increase the risk for the later development of AD, once dementia begins, both risk factors and manifest disease diminish, possibly due to progressive weight loss with increasing dementia as well as disease involvement of the brain\u27s vasomotor centers. © 2011 Beach et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

First Results from High Angular Resolution ALMA Observations Toward the HL Tau Region

We present Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) observations from the 2014 Long Baseline Campaign in dust continuum and spectral line emission from the HL Tau region. The continuum images at wavelengths of 2.9, 1.3, and 0.87 mm have unprecedented angular resolutions of 0.075 arcseconds (10 AU) to 0.025 arcseconds (3.5 AU), revealing an astonishing level of detail in the circumstellar disk surrounding the young solar analogue HL Tau, with a pattern of bright and dark rings observed at all wavelengths. By fitting ellipses to the most distinct rings, we measure precise values for the disk inclination (46.72pm0.05 degrees) and position angle (+138.02pm0.07 degrees). We obtain a high-fidelity image of the 1.0 mm spectral index ($\alpha$), which ranges from $\alpha\sim2.0$ in the optically-thick central peak and two brightest rings, increasing to 2.3-3.0 in the dark rings. The dark rings are not devoid of emission, we estimate a grain emissivity index of 0.8 for the innermost dark ring and lower for subsequent dark rings, consistent with some degree of grain growth and evolution. Additional clues that the rings arise from planet formation include an increase in their central offsets with radius and the presence of numerous orbital resonances. At a resolution of 35 AU, we resolve the molecular component of the disk in HCO+ (1-0) which exhibits a pattern over LSR velocities from 2-12 km/s consistent with Keplerian motion around a ~1.3 solar mass star, although complicated by absorption at low blue-shifted velocities. We also serendipitously detect and resolve the nearby protostars XZ Tau (A/B) and LkHa358 at 2.9 mm.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letter

Modeling the Development of Goal-Specificity in Mirror Neurons

Neurophysiological studies have shown that parietal mirror neurons encode not only actions but also the goal of these actions. Although some mirror neurons will fire whenever a certain action is perceived (goal-independently), most will only fire if the motion is perceived as part of an action with a specific goal. This result is important for the action-understanding hypothesis as it provides a potential neurological basis for such a cognitive ability. It is also relevant for the design of artificial cognitive systems, in particular robotic systems that rely on computational models of the mirror system in their interaction with other agents. Yet, to date, no computational model has explicitly addressed the mechanisms that give rise to both goal-specific and goal-independent parietal mirror neurons. In the present paper, we present a computational model based on a self-organizing map, which receives artificial inputs representing information about both the observed or executed actions and the context in which they were executed. We show that the map develops a biologically plausible organization in which goal-specific mirror neurons emerge. We further show that the fundamental cause for both the appearance and the number of goal-specific neurons can be found in geometric relationships between the different inputs to the map. The results are important to the action-understanding hypothesis as they provide a mechanism for the emergence of goal-specific parietal mirror neurons and lead to a number of predictions: (1) Learning of new goals may mostly reassign existing goal-specific neurons rather than recruit new ones; (2) input differences between executed and observed actions can explain observed corresponding differences in the number of goal-specific neurons; and (3) the percentage of goal-specific neurons may differ between motion primitives