Bayesian estimation of the transmissivity spatial structure from pumping test data

Estimating the statistical parameters (mean, variance, and integral scale) that define the spatial structure of the transmissivity or hydraulic conductivity fields is a fundamental step for the accurate prediction of subsurface flow and contaminant transport. In practice, the determination of the spatial structure is a challenge because of spatial heterogeneity and data scarcity. In this paper, we describe a novel approach that uses time drawdown data from multiple pumping tests to determine the transmissivity statistical spatial structure. The method builds on the pumping test interpretation procedure of Copty et al. (2011) (Continuous Derivation method, CD), which uses the time-drawdown data and its time derivative to estimate apparent transmissivity values as a function of radial distance from the pumping well. A Bayesian approach is then used to infer the statistical parameters of the transmissivity field by combining prior information about the parameters and the likelihood function expressed in terms of radially-dependent apparent transmissivities determined from pumping tests. A major advantage of the proposed Bayesian approach is that the likelihood function is readily determined from randomly generated multiple realizations of the transmissivity field, without the need to solve the groundwater flow equation. Applying the method to synthetically-generated pumping test data, we demonstrate that, through a relatively simple procedure, information on the spatial structure of the transmissivity may be inferred from pumping tests data. It is also shown that the prior parameter distribution has a significant influence on the estimation procedure, given the non-uniqueness of the estimation procedure. Results also indicate that the reliability of the estimated transmissivity statistical parameters increases with the number of available pumping tests.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Scaling Bounded Model Checking By Transforming Programs With Arrays

Bounded Model Checking is one the most successful techniques for finding bugs in program. However, model checkers are resource hungry and are often unable to verify programs with loops iterating over large arrays.We present a transformation that enables bounded model checkers to verify a certain class of array properties. Our technique transforms an array-manipulating (ANSI-C) program to an array-free and loop-free (ANSI-C) program thereby reducing the resource requirements of a model checker significantly. Model checking of the transformed program using an off-the-shelf bounded model checker simulates the loop iterations efficiently. Thus, our transformed program is a sound abstraction of the original program and is also precise in a large number of cases - we formally characterize the class of programs for which it is guaranteed to be precise. We demonstrate the applicability and usefulness of our technique on both industry code as well as academic benchmarks

Efficient Certified RAT Verification

Clausal proofs have become a popular approach to validate the results of SAT solvers. However, validating clausal proofs in the most widely supported format (DRAT) is expensive even in highly optimized implementations. We present a new format, called LRAT, which extends the DRAT format with hints that facilitate a simple and fast validation algorithm. Checking validity of LRAT proofs can be implemented using trusted systems such as the languages supported by theorem provers. We demonstrate this by implementing two certified LRAT checkers, one in Coq and one in ACL2

The Relationship between Facebook and the Egyptian Revolution

an audio documentary that talks about the relationship between Facebook and the revolution. There are three youth activists talking about their experiences in the Egyptian revolution throughout Facebook and how Facebook basically started the whole revolution on Jan 25th 2011

Generalizing Agarwal's method for the interpretation of recovery tests under non-ideal conditions

Pumping tests are performed during aquifer characterization to gain conceptual understanding about the system through diagnostic plots and to estimate hydraulic properties. Recovery tests consist of measuring head response in observation and/or pumping wells after pumping termination. They are especially useful when the pumping rate cannot be accurately controlled. They have been traditionally interpreted using Theis' recovery method, which yields robust estimates of effective transmissivity but does not provide information about the conceptual model. Agarwal proposed a method that has become standard in the oil industry, to obtain both early and late time reservoir responses to pumping from recovery data. However, the validity of the method has only been tested to a limited extent. In this work, we analyze Agarwal's method in terms of both drawdowns and log derivatives for non-ideal conditions: leaky aquifer, presence of boundaries, and one-dimensional flow. Our results show that Agarwal's method provides excellent recovery plots (i.e., the drawdown curve that would be obtained during pumping) and parameter estimates for nearly all aquifer conditions, provided that a constant pumping rate is used and the log derivative at the end of pumping is constant, which is too limiting for groundwater hydrology practice, where observation wells are usually monitored. We generalize Agarwal's method by (1) deriving an improved equivalent time for time-dependent pumping rate and (2) proposing to recover drawdown curves by extrapolating the pumping phase drawdowns. These yield excellent diagnostic plots, thus facilitating the conceptual model analysis for a broad range of conditions.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Branching Fractions for D0 -> K+K- and D0 -> pi+pi-, and a Search for CP Violation in D0 Decays

Using the large hadroproduced charm sample collected in experiment E791 at Fermilab, we have measured ratios of branching fractions for the two-body singly-Cabibbo-suppressed charged decays of the D0: (D0 -> KK)/(D0 -> Kpi) = 0.109 +- 0.003 +- 0.003, (D0 -> pipi)/(D0 -> Kpi) = 0.040 +- 0.002 +- 0.003, and (D0 -> KK)/(D0 -> pipi) = 2.75 +- 0.15 +- 0.16. We have looked for differences in the decay rates of D0 and D0bar to the CP eigenstates K+K- and pi+pi-, and have measured the CP asymmetry parameters A_CP(K+K-) = -0.010 +- 0.049 +- 0.012 and A_CP(pi+pi-) = -0.049 +- 0.078 +- 0.030, both consistent with zero.Comment: 10 Postscript pages, including 2 figures. Submitted to Phys. Lett.

Rich Counter-Examples for Temporal-Epistemic Logic Model Checking

Model checking verifies that a model of a system satisfies a given property, and otherwise produces a counter-example explaining the violation. The verified properties are formally expressed in temporal logics. Some temporal logics, such as CTL, are branching: they allow to express facts about the whole computation tree of the model, rather than on each single linear computation. This branching aspect is even more critical when dealing with multi-modal logics, i.e. logics expressing facts about systems with several transition relations. A prominent example is CTLK, a logic that reasons about temporal and epistemic properties of multi-agent systems. In general, model checkers produce linear counter-examples for failed properties, composed of a single computation path of the model. But some branching properties are only poorly and partially explained by a linear counter-example. This paper proposes richer counter-example structures called tree-like annotated counter-examples (TLACEs), for properties in Action-Restricted CTL (ARCTL), an extension of CTL quantifying paths restricted in terms of actions labeling transitions of the model. These counter-examples have a branching structure that supports more complete description of property violations. Elements of these counter-examples are annotated with parts of the property to give a better understanding of their structure. Visualization and browsing of these richer counter-examples become a critical issue, as the number of branches and states can grow exponentially for deeply-nested properties. This paper formally defines the structure of TLACEs, characterizes adequate counter-examples w.r.t. models and failed properties, and gives a generation algorithm for ARCTL properties. It also illustrates the approach with examples in CTLK, using a reduction of CTLK to ARCTL. The proposed approach has been implemented, first by extending the NuSMV model checker to generate and export branching counter-examples, secondly by providing an interactive graphical interface to visualize and browse them.Comment: In Proceedings IWIGP 2012, arXiv:1202.422

Search for CP Violation in Charged D Meson Decays

We report results of a search for CP violation in the singly Cabibbo-suppressed decays D+ -> K- K+ pi+, phi pi+, K*(892)0 K+, and pi- pi+ pi+ based on data from the charm hadroproduction experiment E791 at Fermilab. We search for a difference in the D+ and D- decay rates for each of the final states. No evidence for a difference is seen. The decay rate asymmetry parameters A(CP), defined as the difference in the D+ and D- decay rates divided by the sum of the decay rates, are measured to be: A(CP)(K K pi) = -0.014 +/- 0.029, A(CP)(phi pi) = -0.028 +/- 0.036, A(CP)(K*(892) K) = -0.010 +/- 0.050, and A(CP)(pi pi pi) = -0.017 +/- 0.042.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, 1 table; Elsevier LaTe