Bayesian decision trees for predicting survival of patients: a study on the US National Trauma Data Bank

Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) models have been developed for predicting the survival probability of injured patients the majority of which obtain up to three injuries in six body regions. Practitioners have noted that the accuracy of TRISS predictions is unacceptable for patients with a larger number of injuries. Moreover, the TRISS method is incapable of providing accurate estimates of predictive density of survival, that are required for calculating confidence intervals. In this paper we propose Bayesian in ference for estimating the desired predictive density. The inference is based on decision tree models which split data along explanatory variables, that makes these models interpretable. The proposed method has outperformed the TRISS method in terms of accuracy of prediction on the cases recorded in the US National Trauma Data Bank. The developed method has been made available for evaluation purposes as a stand-alone application

Regionalization of pediatric emergency care in Korea

In order to care for an ill or injured child, it is crucial that every emergency department (ED) has a minimum set of personnel and resources because the majority of children are brought to the geographically nearest ED. In addition to adequate preparation for basic pediatric emergency care, a comprehensive, specialized healthcare system should be in place for a critically-ill or injured victim. Regionalization of healthcare means a system providing high-quality and cost-effective care for victims who present with alow frequency, but critical condition, such as multiple trauma or cardiac arrest. Within the pediatric field, neonatal intensive care and pediatric trauma care are good examples of regionalization. For successful regionalized pediatric emergency care, all aspects of a pediatric emergency system, from pre-hospital field to hospital care, should be categorized and coordinated. Efforts to set up the pediatric emergency care regionalization program based on a nationwide healthcare system are urgently needed in Korea

Comparison of two prognostic models in trauma outcome

BACKGROUND: The Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) in the UK publicly reports hospital performance in the management of trauma. The TARN risk adjustment model uses a fractional polynomial transformation of the Injury Severity Score (ISS) as the measure of anatomical injury severity. The Trauma Mortality Prediction Model (TMPM) is an alternative to ISS; this study compared the anatomical injury components of the TARN model with the TMPM. METHODS: Data from the National Trauma Data Bank for 2011-2015 were analysed. Probability of death was estimated for the TARN fractional polynomial transformation of ISS and compared with the TMPM. The coefficients for each model were estimated using 80 per cent of the data set, selected randomly. The remaining 20 per cent of the data were used for model validation. TMPM and TARN were compared using calibration curves, measures of discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curves; AUROC), proximity to the true model (Akaike information criterion; AIC) and goodness of model fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test). RESULTS: Some 438 058 patient records were analysed. TMPM demonstrated preferable AUROC (0·882 for TMPM versus 0·845 for TARN), AIC (18 204 versus 21 163) and better fit to the data (32·4 versus 153·0) compared with TARN. CONCLUSION: TMPM had greater discrimination, proximity to the true model and goodness-of-fit than the anatomical injury component of TARN. TMPM should be considered for the injury severity measure for the comparative assessment of trauma centres

Defining and Measuring Successful Emergency Care Networks: A Research Agenda

The demands on emergency services have grown relentlessly, and the Institute of Medicine (IOM) has asserted the need for “regionalized, coordinated, and accountable emergency care systems throughout the country.” There are large gaps in the evidence base needed to fix the problem of how emergency care is organized and delivered, and science is urgently needed to define and measure success in the emerging network of emergency care. In 2010, Academic Emergency Medicine convened a consensus conference entitled “Beyond Regionalization: Integrated Networks of Emergency Care.” This article is a product of the conference breakout session on “Defining and Measuring Successful Networks”; it explores the concept of integrated emergency care delivery and prioritizes a research agenda for how to best define and measure successful networks of emergency care. The authors discuss five key areas: 1) the fundamental metrics that are needed to measure networks across time-sensitive and non–time-sensitive conditions; 2) how networks can be scalable and nimble and can be creative in terms of best practices; 3) the potential unintended consequences of networks of emergency care; 4) the development of large-scale, yet feasible, network data systems; and 5) the linkage of data systems across the disease course. These knowledge gaps must be filled to improve the quality and efficiency of emergency care and to fulfill the IOM’s vision of regionalized, coordinated, and accountable emergency care systems.ACADEMIC EMERGENCY MEDICINE 2010; 17:1297–1305 © 2010 by the Society for Academic Emergency MedicinePeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/79228/1/j.1553-2712.2010.00930.x.pd

Advanced Trauma Life Support®. ABCDE from a radiological point of view

Accidents are the primary cause of death in patients aged 45 years or younger. In many countries, Advanced Trauma Life Support® (ATLS®) is the foundation on which trauma care is based. We will summarize the principles and the radiological aspects of the ATLS®, and we will discuss discrepancies with day to day practice and the radiological literature. Because the ATLS® is neither thorough nor up-to-date concerning several parts of radiology in trauma, it should not be adopted without serious attention to defining the indications and limitations pertaining to diagnostic imaging

Out-of-hospital Administration of Mannitol to Head-injured Patients Does Not Change Systolic Blood Pressure

Objective: To determine the effect of out-of-hospital mannitol administration on systolic blood pressure (BP) in the head-injured multiple-trauma patient. Methods: This was a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial involving a university-based helicopter air medical service and level-1 trauma center hospital. Endotracheally intubated head-trauma victims with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores < 12 were enrolled from November 22, 1991, to November 20, 1992, if evaluated by the participating aeromedical transport team within 6 hours of injury. Patients were excluded if they were <18 years old, had already received mannitol or another diuretic, were potentially pregnant, or were receiving CPR. All patients were intubated prior to study drug (mannitol [1 g/ kg] or normal saline) use. Pulse and BP were measured every 15 minutes for 2 hours following study drug administration. Results: A total of 44 patients were enrolled. After exclusion of 3 patients who did not meet all inclusion criteria, there were 20 patients in the mannitol group and 21 patients in the placebo group. The groups were similar at baseline in age, pulse, systolic BP (baseline mannitol: 124 ± 47 mm Hg; placebo: 128 ± 32 mm Hg), GCS score, and Injury Severity Scale score. Systolic BP did not change significantly throughout the observation period in either group. This study had 83% power to detect a mean systolic BP drop to <90 mm Hg. Conclusion: Out-of-hospital administration of mannitol did not significantly change systolic BP in this group of head-injured multiple-trauma patients.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73904/1/j.1553-2712.1996.tb03528.x.pd

Trauma networks: present and future challenges

In England, trauma is the leading cause of death across all age groups, with over 16,000 deaths per year. Major trauma implies the presence of multiple, serious injuries that could result in death or serious disability. Successive reports have documented the fact that the current ad hoc unstructured management of this patient group is associated with considerable avoidable death and disability. The reform of trauma care in England, especially of the severely injured patient, has already begun. Strong clinical leadership is embraced as the way forward. The present article summarises the steps that have been made over the last decade that led to the recent decision to move towards a long anticipated restructure of the National Health Service (NHS) trauma services with the introduction of Regional Trauma Networks (RTNs). While, for the first time, a genuine political will and support exists, the changes required to maintain the momentum for the implementation of the RTNs needs to be marshalled against arguments, myths and perceptions from the past. Such an approach may reverse the disinterest attitude of many, and will gradually evolve into a cultural shift of the public, clinicians and policymakers in the fullness of time

Hospital-based injury data from level III institution in Cameroon: Retrospective analysis of the present registration system

BackgroundData on the epidemiology of trauma in Cameroon are scarce. Presently, hospital records are still used as a primary source of injury data. It has been shown that trauma registries could play a key role in providing basic data on trauma. Our goal is to review the present emergency ward records for completeness of data and provide an overview of injuries in the city of Limbe and the surrounding area in the Southwest Region of Cameroon prior to the institution of a formal registration system.MethodsA retrospective review of Emergency Ward logs in Limbe Hospital was conducted over one year. Records for all patients over 15 years of age were reviewed for 14 data points considered to be essential to a basic trauma registry. Completeness of records was assessed and a descriptive analysis of patterns and trends of trauma was performed.ResultsInjury-related conditions represent 27% of all registered admissions in the casualty department. Information on age, sex and mechanism of injury was lacking in 22% of cases. Information on vital signs was present in 2% (respiratory rate) to 12% (blood pressure on admission) of records. Patient disposition (admission, transfer, discharge, or death) was available 42% of the time, whilst location of injury was found in 84% of records. Road traffic injury was the most frequently recorded mechanism (36%), with the type of vehicle specified in 54% and the type of collision in only 22% of cases. Intentional injuries were the second most frequent mechanism at 23%.ConclusionThe frequency of trauma found in this context argues for further prevention and treatment efforts. The institution of a formal registration system will improve the completeness of data and lead to increased ability to evaluate the severity and subsequent public health implications of injury in this region