Propensity Score Matching in Randomized Clinical Trials

Cluster randomization trials with relatively few clusters have been widely used in recent years for evaluation of health-care strategies. On average, randomized treatment assignment achieves balance in both known and unknown confounding factors between treatment groups, however, in practice investigators can only introduce a small amount of stratification and cannot balance on all the important variables simultaneously. The limitation arises especially when there are many confounding variables in small studies. Such is the case in the  INSTINCT  trial designed to investigate the effectiveness of an education program in enhancing the tPA use in stroke patients. In this article, we introduce a new randomization design, the balance match weighted (BMW) design, which applies the optimal matching with constraints technique to a prospective randomized design and aims to minimize the mean squared error (MSE) of the treatment effect estimator. A simulation study shows that, under various confounding scenarios, the BMW design can yield substantial reductions in the MSE for the treatment effect estimator compared to a completely randomized or matched-pair design. The BMW design is also compared with a model-based approach adjusting for the estimated propensity score and Robins-Mark-Newey E-estimation procedure in terms of efficiency and robustness of the treatment effect estimator. These investigations suggest that the BMW design is more robust and usually, although not always, more efficient than either of the approaches. The design is also seen to be robust against heterogeneous error. We illustrate these methods in proposing a design for the  INSTINCT  trial.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78638/1/j.1541-0420.2009.01364.x.pd

A multi-method characterization of Elasmobranch & Cheloniidae communities of the north-eastern Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba

This is the final version. Available on open access from the Public Library of Science via the DOI in this recordData Availability: All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.The Red Sea is particularly biodiverse, hosting high levels of endemism and numerous populations whose extinction risk is heightened by their relative isolation. Elasmobranchs and sea turtles have likely suffered recent declines in this region, although data on their distribution and biology are severely lacking, especially on the eastern side of the basin in Saudi Arabian waters. Here, we present sightings of elasmobranchs and sea turtles across the north-eastern Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba collected through a combination of survey methods. Over 455 survey hours, we recorded 407 sightings belonging to 26 elasmobranch species and two sea turtle species, more than 75% of which are of conservation concern. We identified 4 species of rays and 9 species of sharks not previously recorded in Saudi Arabia and report a range extension for the pink whipray (Himantura fai) and the round ribbontail ray (Taeniurops meyeni) into the Gulf of Aqaba. High density of sightings of conservation significance, including green and hawksbill sea turtles and halavi guitarfish were recorded in bay systems along the eastern Gulf of Aqaba and the Saudi Arabian coastline bordering the north-eastern Red Sea, and many carcharhinid species were encountered at offshore seamounts in the region. Our findings provide new insights into the distribution patterns of megafaunal assemblages over smaller spatial scales in the region, and facilitate future research and conservation efforts, amidst ongoing, large-scale coastal developments in the north-eastern Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba.NEOM Compan

High potential for weathering and climate effects of non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician

It has been hypothesized that predecessors of today’s bryophytes significantly increased global chemical weathering in the Late Ordovician, thus reducing atmospheric CO2 concentration and contributing to climate cooling and an interval of glaciations. Studies that try to quantify the enhancement of weathering by non-vascular vegetation, however, are usually limited to small areas and low numbers of species, which hampers extrapolating to the global scale and to past climatic conditions. Here we present a spatially explicit modelling approach to simulate global weathering by non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician. We estimate a potential global weathering flux of 2.8 (km3 rock) yr−1, defined here as volume of primary minerals affected by chemical transformation. This is around three times larger than today’s global chemical weathering flux. Moreover, we find that simulated weathering is highly sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentration. This implies a strong negative feedback between weathering by non-vascular vegetation and Ordovician climate

An effective all-atom potential for proteins

We describe and test an implicit solvent all-atom potential for simulations of protein folding and aggregation. The potential is developed through studies of structural and thermodynamic properties of 17 peptides with diverse secondary structure. Results obtained using the final form of the potential are presented for all these peptides. The same model, with unchanged parameters, is furthermore applied to a heterodimeric coiled-coil system, a mixed alpha/beta protein and a three-helix-bundle protein, with very good results. The computational efficiency of the potential makes it possible to investigate the free-energy landscape of these 49--67-residue systems with high statistical accuracy, using only modest computational resources by today's standards

Predictors of well child care adherence over time in a cohort of urban Medicaid-eligible infants

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Changes in well child care (WCC) adherence over time have not previously been examined. Our objective is to describe adherence rates to WCC over time in a low-income urban population of infants 0-24 months of age, and to identify predictors of WCC adherence in this population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is a secondary analysis of a cohort of Medicaid-eligible children followed from birth to 2 years between 2005 and 2008 with structured telephone surveys to assess maternal well-being, social support, and household and demographic information. For the 260 children attending 4 urban pediatric practices, WCC adherence was assessed based on visit data abstracted from electronic medical records. A random-intercept mixed effects logit model clustered on subject was used.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>92% of the mothers were African-American, 27% had not finished high school, 87% were single, and 43% earned < $500/month; mean age was 23. WCC adherence decreased from 88% at 6 months to 47% (12 mo), 44% (18 mo), and 67% (24 mo). The difference across time periods was statistically significant (p < 0.001). Married (OR 1.71, p = 0.02) and primiparous (OR 1.89, p < 0.001) mothers had significantly greater odds of adherence, along with women who reported having been adherent to prenatal care visits (OR 1.49, p = 0.03) and those with the lowest household income (OR 1.40, p = 0.03).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Maternal education efforts should emphasize the importance of establishing WCC, especially for mothers of more than one child. Further studies using larger, more broadly defined populations are needed to confirm our findings that efforts to increase WCC adherence should be intensified after 6 months of age, particularly for children at higher risk.</p

Measurement of the branching fraction and CP content for the decay B(0) -> D(*+)D(*-)

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APS.We report a measurement of the branching fraction of the decay B0→D*+D*- and of the CP-odd component of its final state using the BABAR detector. With data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.4  fb-1 collected at the Υ(4S) resonance during 1999–2000, we have reconstructed 38 candidate signal events in the mode B0→D*+D*- with an estimated background of 6.2±0.5 events. From these events, we determine the branching fraction to be B(B0→D*+D*-)=[8.3±1.6(stat)±1.2(syst)]×10-4. The measured CP-odd fraction of the final state is 0.22±0.18(stat)±0.03(syst).This work is supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the A.P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

Ratio of the Isolated Photon Cross Sections at \sqrt{s} = 630 and 1800 GeV

The inclusive cross section for production of isolated photons has been measured in \pbarp collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 630$ GeV with the \D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. The photons span a transverse energy ($E_T$) range from 7-49 GeV and have pseudorapidity $|\eta| < 2.5$. This measurement is combined with to previous \D0 result at $\sqrt{s} = 1800$ GeV to form a ratio of the cross sections. Comparison of next-to-leading order QCD with the measured cross section at 630 GeV and ratio of cross sections show satisfactory agreement in most of the $E_T$ range.Comment: 7 pages. Published in Phys. Rev. Lett. 87, 251805, (2001