Deterrence and Escalation in Competition with Russia (Executive Summary)

The deterrence of armed conflict has been studied intensively for decades, as have escalation dynamics along the path to such conflicts. The deterrence of forms of aggression below the level of armed conflict -- such hostile measures as economic coercion, political subversion, and military intimidation -- has received much less attention.In this report, the authors investigate how the United States might use its military posture in Europe (specifically, ground forces) as part of a strategy to deter these Russian malign activities.The authors identify how forward posture could deter hostile measures through signaling the United States' commitment to its allies and partners, providing irregular capabilities for those partners and allies threatened with political subversion, providing conventional capabilities to neutralize hostile powers' coercion attempts, and providing support for other instruments of U.S. power, such as sanctions. However, forward posture can also lead to an escalation in competitor activities, increasing their sense of threat, incentivizing partners to undertake aggression at levels below armed conflict, and incentivizing third parties to act in ways that increase the likelihood of confrontation. The authors propose ways to calibrate U.S. forward posture to minimize such risks while enhancing deterrence

Genotypic and morphological variation between Galaxiella nigrostriata (Galaxiidae) populations: Implications for conservation

Galaxiella nigrostriata is a freshwater fish that is endemic to the seasonally dry coastal wetlands of south-west Western Australia and considered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) as lower risk-near threatened. This small fish (maximum total length<50mm) aestivates in the sediment over the long, dry Mediterranean summer and its dispersal is limited by lack of habitat connectivity. The objective of this study was to identify the historical and contemporary genetic connectivity between populations of G. nigrostriata and to assess morphological variation between these populations. Results showed that all populations were genetically divergent and no mtDNA haplotypes were shared between populations. In contrast, morphological differentiation between individual populations was weak; however, pooling populations into two broad regions (Swan coastal plain and southern coast) resulted in clear morphological differentiation between these two groups. Based on these results, we postulate G. nigrostriata distribution last expanded in the early Pleistocene ~5.1 million years ago and have since been restricted to remnant wetlands in the immediate area. Galaxiella nigrostriata populations at the northern end of their range are small and are the most vulnerable to extinction. Conservation efforts are therefore required to ensure the survival of these genetically and morphologically distinctive Swan coastal plain populations