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Boreal forest CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration predicted by nine ecosystem process models: Intermodel comparisons and relationships to field measurements
Nine ecosystem process models were used to predict CO2 and water vapor exchanges by a 150-year-old black spruce forest in central Canada during 1994–1996 to evaluate and improve the models. Three models had hourly time steps, five had daily time steps, and one had monthly time steps. Model input included site ecosystem characteristics and meteorology. Model predictions were compared to eddy covariance (EC) measurements of whole-ecosystem CO2exchange and evapotranspiration, to chamber measurements of nighttime moss-surface CO2release, and to ground-based estimates of annual gross primary production, net primary production, net ecosystem production (NEP), plant respiration, and decomposition. Model-model differences were apparent for all variables. Model-measurement agreement was good in some cases but poor in others. Modeled annual NEP ranged from −11 g C m−2 (weak CO2source) to 85 g C m−2 (moderate CO2 sink). The models generally predicted greater annual CO2sink activity than measured by EC, a discrepancy consistent with the fact that model parameterizations represented the more productive fraction of the EC tower “footprint.” At hourly to monthly timescales, predictions bracketed EC measurements so median predictions were similar to measurements, but there were quantitatively important model-measurement discrepancies found for all models at subannual timescales. For these models and input data, hourly time steps (and greater complexity) compared to daily time steps tended to improve model-measurement agreement for daily scale CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration (as judged by root-mean-squared error). Model time step and complexity played only small roles in monthly to annual predictions
The effects of CO2, climate and land-use on terrestrial carbon balance, 1920-1992: An analysis with four process-based ecosystem models
The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulation protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term(1920–1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long-term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2. During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr−1, which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO2 and O2 budgets. Three of the four models indicated (in accordance with O2 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long-term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-scale variability in the atmospheric CO2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process-based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from stand-level process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system
A survey on clinical presentation and nutritional status of infants with suspected cow' milk allergy
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cow's milk is the most common food allergen in infants and the diagnosis of cow's milk allergy is difficult, even with the use of several diagnostic tests. Therefore, elimination diets and challenge tests are essential for the diagnosis and treatment of this disorder. The aim of this study is to report the clinical presentation and nutritional status of children evaluated by pediatric gastroenterologists for the assessment of symptoms suggestive of cow's milk allergy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An observational cross-sectional study was performed among 9,478 patients evaluated by 30 pediatric gastroenterologists for 40 days in 5 different geographical regions in Brazil. Clinical data were collected from patients with symptoms suggestive of cow's milk allergy. The nutritional status of infants (age ≤ 24 months) seen for the first time was evaluated according to z-scores for weight-for-age, weight-for-height, and height-for-age. Epi-Info (CDC-NCHS, 2000) software was used to calculate z-scores.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of suspected cow's milk allergy in the study population was 5.4% (513/9,478), and the incidence was 2.2% (211/9,478). Among 159 infants seen at first evaluation, 15.1% presented with a low weight-for-age z score (< -2.0 standard deviation - SD), 8.7% with a low weight-for-height z score (< -2.0 SD), and 23.9% with a low height-for-age z score (< -2.0 SD).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The high prevalence of nutritional deficits among infants with symptoms suggestive of cow's milk allergy indicates that effective elimination diets should be prescribed to control allergy symptoms and to prevent or treat malnutrition.</p