Econometric forecasting of financial assets using non-linear smooth transition autoregressive models

Following the debate by empirical finance research on the presence of non-linear predictability in stock market returns, this study examines forecasting abilities of nonlinear STAR-type models. A non-linear model methodology is applied to daily returns of FTSE, S&P, DAX and Nikkei indices. The research is then extended to long-horizon forecastability of the four series including monthly returns and a buy-and-sell strategy for a three, six and twelve month holding period using non-linear error-correction framework. The recursive out-of-sample forecast is performed using the present value model equilibrium methodology, whereby stock returns are forecasted using macroeconomic variables, in particular the dividend yield and price-earnings ratio. The forecasting exercise revealed the presence of non-linear predictability for all data periods considered, and confirmed an improvement of predictability for long-horizon data. Finally, the present value model approach is applied to the housing market, whereby the house price returns are forecasted using a price-earnings ratio as a measure of fundamental levels of prices. Findings revealed that the UK housing market appears to be characterised with asymmetric non-linear dynamics, and a clear preference for the asymmetric ESTAR model in terms of forecasting accuracy

Does debt affect health? Cross country evidence on the debt-health nexus

We investigate the relationship between aggregate household debt and aggregate health outcomes across 17 European countries over the period 1995 to 2012. Using a dataset of country-level standardized and objective measures of household debt, health outcomes and a rich set of control variables, we estimate an instrumental variable (GMM) model to address possible reverse causality concerns. We find that aggregate household debt affects health outcomes, and that this varies by the maturity of debt. Both short and medium-term debt has a positive effect on health outcomes. Long-term unsecured debt and mortgage debt are associated with poorer health outcomes. These findings are robust after controlling for alternative measures of health and debt. Overall, the results suggest that aggregate household debt is an important determinant of aggregate health outcomes across countries

Host Species and Captivity Distinguish the Microbiome Compositions of a Diverse Zoo-Resident Non-Human Primate Population

Vast numbers of microorganisms inhabit the mammalian gastrointestinal tract in a complex community referred to as the gut microbiome. An individual’s microbiome may be impacted by genetics, diet, and various environmental factors, and has been associated with many health states and diseases, though specific explanations are lacking. While these communities are well-studied in human populations, non-human primates (NHPs), in particular zoo-resident or captive NHPs, offer distinct advantages to increasing our understanding of factors that influence gut microbiome composition. Here, we characterize the gut microbiome composition of a phylogenetically diverse cohort of NHPs residing in the same urban zoo. We show that despite overlapping and controlled environmental contexts, gut microbiomes are still distinguished between NHP host species. However, when comparing the zoo cohort to wild NHPs, we show that captivity status strongly distinguishes zoo-resident NHPs from their wild counterparts, regardless of host phylogeny. Microbial orders unique to captive NHPs include taxa commonly present in human gut microbiomes. Together, these results demonstrate that differences between NHP species are strongly associated with gut microbiome composition and diversity, suggesting that species-specific approaches should be considered when investigating environmental factors’ influence on gut microbiome composition

Pediatric Cushing disease: disparities in disease severity and outcomes in the Hispanic and African-American populations.

BackgroundLittle is known about the contribution of racial and socioeconomic disparities to severity and outcomes in children with Cushing disease (CD).MethodsA total of 129 children with CD, 45 Hispanic/Latino or African-American (HI/AA) and 84 non-Hispanic White (non-HW), were included in this study. A 10-point index for rating severity (CD severity) incorporated the degree of hypercortisolemia, glucose tolerance, hypertension, anthropomorphic measurements, disease duration, and tumor characteristics. Race, ethnicity, age, gender, local obesity prevalence, estimated median income, and access to care were assessed in regression analyses of CD severity.ResultsThe mean CD severity in the HI/AA group was worse than that in the non-HW group (4.9±2.0 vs. 4.1±1.9, P=0.023); driving factors included higher cortisol levels and larger tumor size. Multiple regression models confirmed that race (P=0.027) and older age (P=0.014) were the most important predictors of worse CD severity. When followed up a median of 2.3 years after surgery, the relative risk for persistent CD combined with recurrence was 2.8 times higher in the HI/AA group compared with that in the non-HW group (95% confidence interval: 1.2-6.5).ConclusionOur data show that the driving forces for the discrepancy in severity of CD are older age and race/ethnicity. Importantly, the risk for persistent and recurrent CD was higher in minority children

Does native Trypanosoma cruzi calreticulin mediate growth inhibition of a mammary tumor during infection?

Indexación: Web of Science.Background: For several decades now an antagonism between Trypanosoma cruzi infection and tumor development has been detected. The molecular basis of this phenomenon remained basically unknown until our proposal that T. cruzi Calreticulin (TcCRT), an endoplasmic reticulum-resident chaperone, translocated-externalized by the parasite, may mediate at least an important part of this effect. Thus, recombinant TcCRT (rTcCRT) has important in vivo antiangiogenic and antitumor activities. However, the relevant question whether the in vivo antitumor effect of T. cruzi infection is indeed mediated by the native chaperone (nTcCRT), remains open. Herein, by using specific modified anti-rTcCRT antibodies (Abs), we have neutralized the antitumor activity of T. cruzi infection and extracts thereof, thus identifying nTcCRT as a valid mediator of this effect. Methods: Polyclonal anti-rTcCRT F(ab')(2) Ab fragments were used to reverse the capacity of rTcCRT to inhibit EAhy926 endothelial cell (EC) proliferation, as detected by BrdU uptake. Using these F(ab')(2) fragments, we also challenged the capacity of nTcCRT, during T. cruzi infection, to inhibit the growth of an aggressive mammary adenocarcinoma cell line (TA3-MTXR) in mice. Moreover, we determined the capacity of anti-rTcCRT Abs to reverse the antitumor effect of an epimastigote extract (EE). Finally, the effects of these treatments on tumor histology were evaluated. Results: The rTcCRT capacity to inhibit ECs proliferation was reversed by anti-rTcCRT F(ab')(2) Ab fragments, thus defining them as valid probes to interfere in vivo with this important TcCRT function. Consequently, during infection, these Ab fragments also reversed the in vivo experimental mammary tumor growth. Moreover, anti-rTcCRT Abs also neutralized the antitumor effect of an EE, again identifying the chaperone protein as an important mediator of this anti mammary tumor effect. Finally, as determined by conventional histological parameters, in infected animals and in those treated with EE, less invasive tumors were observed while, as expected, treatment with F(ab')(2) Ab fragments increased malignancy. Conclusion: We have identified translocated/externalized nTcCRT as responsible for at least an important part of the anti mammary tumor effect of the chaperone observed during experimental infections with T. cruzi.http://bmccancer.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12885-016-2764-

Prevalence and clinical impact of endoscopic pseudomembranes in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and Clostridium difficile infection

Background and aim: Limited data suggests that pseudomembranes are uncommon in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and C. difficile associated disease (CDAD), but the reason for this is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the rate of pseudomembranes in this population, identify predictive factors for pseudomembranes' presence and assess its clinical impact. Methods: This was a sub-study of a retrospective European Crohn's & Colitis Organization (ECCO) multi-center study on the outcome of hospitalized IBD patients with C. difficile. The present study included only patients who underwent lower endoscopy during hospitalization, and compared demographic and clinical parameters in the group of patients with discernable pseudomembranes versus those without. Results: Out of 155 patients in the original cohort, 93 patients underwent lower endoscopy and constituted the study population. Endoscopic pseudomembranes were found in 12 (13%) of these patients. Patients with pseudomembranes presented more commonly with fever (p=0.02) compared to patients without pseudomembranes. No difference between the two groups was found with respect to the use of immunosuppressant drugs, background demographics or disease characteristics. Neither was there a difference between the group with or without pseudomembranes in the frequency of severe adverse clinical outcome or in the duration of hospitalization. On multi-variate analysis the presence of fever remained independently associated with the finding of pseudomembranes (OR 6, 95% CI 1.2–32, p=0.03). Conclusions: This study documents that hospitalized IBD patients with CDAD have low rate of endoscopic pseudomembranes, which is not accounted for by the use of immunosuppressant drugs. IBD patients with CDAD and discernable pseudomembranes more commonly present with fever, but their clinical outcome is similar to patients without pseudomembranes. © 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation

Synergistic drug-cytokine induction of hepatocellular death as an in vitro approach for the study of inflammation-associated idiosyncratic drug hepatotoxicity

Idiosyncratic drug hepatotoxicity represents a major problem in drug development due to inadequacy of current preclinical screening assays, but recently established rodent models utilizing bacterial LPS co-administration to induce an inflammatory background have successfully reproduced idiosyncratic hepatotoxicity signatures for certain drugs. However, the low-throughput nature of these models renders them problematic for employment as preclinical screening assays. Here, we present an analogous, but high-throughput, in vitro approach in which drugs are administered to a variety of cell types (primary human and rat hepatocytes and the human HepG2 cell line) across a landscape of inflammatory contexts containing LPS and cytokines TNF, IFNγ, IL-1α, and IL-6. Using this assay, we observed drug–cytokine hepatotoxicity synergies for multiple idiosyncratic hepatotoxicants (ranitidine, trovafloxacin, nefazodone, nimesulide, clarithromycin, and telithromycin) but not for their corresponding non-toxic control compounds (famotidine, levofloxacin, buspirone, and aspirin). A larger compendium of drug–cytokine mix hepatotoxicity data demonstrated that hepatotoxicity synergies were largely potentiated by TNF, IL-1α, and LPS within the context of multi-cytokine mixes. Then, we screened 90 drugs for cytokine synergy in human hepatocytes and found that a significantly larger fraction of the idiosyncratic hepatotoxicants (19%) synergized with a single cytokine mix than did the non-hepatotoxic drugs (3%). Finally, we used an information theoretic approach to ascertain especially informative subsets of cytokine treatments for most highly effective construction of regression models for drug- and cytokine mix-induced hepatotoxicities across these cell systems. Our results suggest that this drug–cytokine co-treatment approach could provide a useful preclinical tool for investigating inflammation-associated idiosyncratic drug hepatotoxicity.Pfizer Inc.Institute for Collaborative BiotechnologiesMIT Center for Cell Decision ProcessesNational Institute of Mental Health (U.S.) (grant P50-GM68762)National Institute of Mental Health (U.S.) (grant T32-GM008334)Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Biotechnology Process Engineering CenterMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Environmental Health SciencesNational Institute of Mental Health (U.S.) (grant U19ES011399)Whitaker Foundatio

Mutations in SLC39A14 disrupt manganese homeostasis and cause childhood-onset parkinsonism-dystonia.

Although manganese is an essential trace metal, little is known about its transport and homeostatic regulation. Here we have identified a cohort of patients with a novel autosomal recessive manganese transporter defect caused by mutations in SLC39A14. Excessive accumulation of manganese in these patients results in rapidly progressive childhood-onset parkinsonism-dystonia with distinctive brain magnetic resonance imaging appearances and neurodegenerative features on post-mortem examination. We show that mutations in SLC39A14 impair manganese transport in vitro and lead to manganese dyshomeostasis and altered locomotor activity in zebrafish with CRISPR-induced slc39a14 null mutations. Chelation with disodium calcium edetate lowers blood manganese levels in patients and can lead to striking clinical improvement. Our results demonstrate that SLC39A14 functions as a pivotal manganese transporter in vertebrates.Action Medical ResearchThis is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1160

Heterozygous ANKRD17 loss-of-function variants cause a syndrome with intellectual disability, speech delay, and dysmorphism

ANKRD17 is an ankyrin repeat-containing protein thought to play a role in cell cycle progression, whose ortholog in Drosophila functions in the Hippo pathway as a co-factor of Yorkie. Here, we delineate a neurodevelopmental disorder caused by de novo heterozygous ANKRD17 variants. The mutational spectrum of this cohort of 34 individuals from 32 families is highly suggestive of haploinsufficiency as the underlying mechanism of disease, with 21 truncating or essential splice site variants, 9 missense variants, 1 in-frame insertion-deletion, and 1 microdeletion (1.16 Mb). Consequently, our data indicate that loss of ANKRD17 is likely the main cause of phenotypes previously associated with large multi-gene chromosomal aberrations of the 4q13.3 region. Protein modeling suggests that most of the missense variants disrupt the stability of the ankyrin repeats through alteration of core structural residues. The major phenotypic characteristic of our cohort is a variable degree of developmental delay/intellectual disability, particularly affecting speech, while additional features include growth failure, feeding difficulties, non-specific MRI abnormalities, epilepsy and/or abnormal EEG, predisposition to recurrent infections (mostly bacterial), ophthalmological abnormalities, gait/balance disturbance, and joint hypermobility. Moreover, many individuals shared similar dysmorphic facial features. Analysis of single-cell RNA-seq data from the developing human telencephalon indicated ANKRD17 expression at multiple stages of neurogenesis, adding further evidence to the assertion that damaging ANKRD17 variants cause a neurodevelopmental disorder

Safety of growth hormone replacement in survivors of cancer and intracranial and pituitary tumours: a consensus statement

Growth hormone (GH) has been used for over 35 years, and its safety and efficacy has been studied extensively. Experimental studies showing the permissive role of GH/insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-I) in carcinogenesis have raised concerns regarding the safety of GH replacement in children and adults who have received treatment for cancer and those with intracranial and pituitary tumours. A consensus statement was produced to guide decision-making on GH replacement in children and adult survivors of cancer, in those treated for intracranial and pituitary tumours and in patients with increased cancer risk. With the support of the European Society of Endocrinology, the Growth Hormone Research Society convened a Workshop, where 55 international key opinion leaders representing 10 professional societies were invited to participate. This consensus statement utilized: (1) a critical review paper produced before the Workshop, (2) five plenary talks, (3) evidence-based comments from four breakout groups, and (4) discussions during report-back sessions. Current evidence reviewed from the proceedings from the Workshop does not support an association between GH replacement and primary tumour or cancer recurrence. The effect of GH replacement on secondary neoplasia risk is minor compared to host- and tumour treatment-related factors. There is no evidence for an association between GH replacement and increased mortality from cancer amongst GH-deficient childhood cancer survivors. Patients with pituitary tumour or craniopharyngioma remnants receiving GH replacement do not need to be treated or monitored differently than those not receiving GH. GH replacement might be considered in GH-deficient adult cancer survivors in remission after careful individual risk/benefit analysis. In children with cancer predisposition syndromes, GH treatment is generally contraindicated but may be considered cautiously in select patients