A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events

Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) a threshold process, (ii) an overshooting in the stability of the system and (iii) a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2), in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance) and provide the first explicitly reported manifestation of ghost resonance in a geosystem, i.e. of a mechanism which could be relevant for other systems with thresholds and with multiple states of operation. Our work enables us to explicitly simulate realistic probability measures of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (e.g. waiting time distributions, which are a prerequisite for statistical analyses on the regularity of the events by means of Monte-Carlo simulations). We thus think that our study is an important advance in order to develop more adequate methods to test the statistical significance and the origin of the proposed glacial 1470-year climate cycle

Plio-Pleistocene changes in water mass exchange and erosional inputs in the Fram Strait

We determined the isotopic composition of neodymium (Nd) and lead (Pb) of past seawater to reconstruct water mass exchange and erosional input between the Arctic Ocean and the Norwegian-Greenland Seas over the past 5 Ma. For this purpose, sediments of ODP site 911 (leg 151) located at 900 m water depth on the Yermak Plateau in the Fram Strait were used. The paleo-seawater variability of Nd and Pb isotopes was extracted from the sea water-derived metal oxide coatings on the sediment particles following the leaching method of Gutjahr et al. (2007). All radiogenic isotope data were acquired by Multi-Collector (MC) ICP-MS. The site 911 stratigraphy of Knies et al. (2009) was applied. Surface sediment Sr and Nd isotope data, as well as downcore Sr isotope data obtained on the same leaches are close to seawater and confirm the seawater origin of the Nd and Pb isotope signatures. The deep water Nd isotope time series extracted from site 911 was in general more radiogenic ("Nd = -7.5 to -10) than present day deep water ("Nd = -9.8 to -11.8) in the area of the Fram Strait (Andersson et al., 2008) and does not show a systematic trend with time. In contrast, the radiogenic isotope composition of Pb evolved from 206Pb/204Pb ratios around 18.7 to more radiogenic values around 19.2 between 2 Ma and today. The data indicate that mixing of water masses from the Arctic Ocean and the Norwegian-Greenland Seas has controlled the Nd isotope signatures of deep waters on the Yermak Plateau over the past 5 Ma. Prior to 1.7 Ma the Nd isotope signatures on the Yermak Plateau were less radiogenic than waters from the same depth in the central Arctic Ocean (Haley et al., 2008) pointing to a greater influence from the Norwegian-Greenland Seas. After 1.7 Ma the central Arctic and Yermak Plateau data have varied around similar values indicating water mass mixing overall similar to today. In contrast, the Pb isotope composition of deep waters in the Fram Strait appears to have been dominated by weathering inputs from glacially weathering old continental landmasses, such as Greenland or parts of Svalbard since 2 Ma. A similar control over the Pb isotope evolution of seawater since the onset of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation was recorded by ferromanganese crusts that grew from North Atlantic DeepWater in the western North Atlantic. References: Gutjahr, M., Frank, M., Stirling, C.H., Klemm, V., van de Flierdt, T. and Halliday, A.N. (2007): Reliable extraction of a deepwater trace metal isotope signal from Fe-Mn oxyhydroxide coatings of marine sediments.- Chemical Geology 242, 351-370 Haley B. A., M. Frank, R.F. Spielhagen and A. Eisenhauer (2008): Influence of brine formation on Arctic Ocean circulation over the past 15 million years. Nature Geoscience 1, 68–72 Andersson, P.S., Porcelli, D., Frank, M., Björk, G., Dahlqvist, R. and Gustafsson, Ö. (2008): Neodymium isotopes in seawater from the Barents Sea and Fram Strait Arctic- Atlantic gateways.- Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 72, 2854-2867 Knies, J., J. Matthiessen, C. Vogt, J.S. Laberg, B.O. Hjelstuen, M.Smelror, E. Larsen, K. Andreassen, T. Eidvin and T.O. Vorren (2009): The Plio-Pleistocene glaciation of the Barents Sea–Svalbard region: a new model based on revised chronostratigraphy - Quaternary Science Reviews 28, 9-10, 812-82

The contribution of badgers to confirmed tuberculosis in cattle in high-incidence areas in England

The role of badgers in the transmission and maintenance of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in British cattle is widely debated as part of the wider discussions on whether badger culling and/or badger vaccination should play a role in the government’s strategy to eradicate cattle TB. The key source of information on the contribution from badgers within high-cattle-TB-incidence areas of England is the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT), with two analyses providing estimates of the average overall contribution of badgers to confirmed cattle TB in these areas. A dynamical model characterizing the association between the estimated prevalence of Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of bovine TB) among badgers culled in the initial RBCT proactive culls and the incidence among sympatric cattle herds prior to culling is used to estimate the average overall contribution of badgers to confirmed TB herd breakdowns among proactively culled areas. The resulting estimate based on all data (52%) has considerable uncertainty (bootstrap 95% confidence interval (CI): 9.1-100%). Separate analyses of experimental data indicated that the largest estimated reduction in confirmed cattle TB achieved inside the proactive culling areas was 54% (overdispersion-adjusted 95% CI: 38-66%), providing a lower bound for the average overall contribution of badgers to confirmed cattle TB. Thus, taking into account both results, the best estimate of the average overall contribution of badgers is roughly half, with 38% being a robustly estimated lower bound. However, the dynamical model also suggested that only 5.7% (bootstrap 95% CI: 0.9-25%) of the transmission to cattle herds is badger-to-cattle with the remainder of the average overall contribution from badgers being in the form of onward cattle-to-cattle transmission. These estimates, confirming that badgers do play a role in bovine TB transmission, inform debate even if they do not point to a single way forward

Eccentric Taylor-Couette Flow with orbital motion of the inner cylinder

This paper was presented at the 3rd Micro and Nano Flows Conference (MNF2011), which was held at the Makedonia Palace Hotel, Thessaloniki in Greece. The conference was organised by Brunel University and supported by the Italian Union of Thermofluiddynamics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, University of Thessaly, IPEM, the Process Intensification Network, the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, the Heat Transfer Society, HEXAG - the Heat Exchange Action Group, and the Energy Institute.The flow in a Taylor-Couette system is one of the most explored flows today. The behaviour of the flow is characterized by Reynolds number, radii and aspect ratio. By reducing the gap width the Taylor-Couette system can be used as a simplified bearing model which has one additional feature. To cover flow effects of a real bearing the rotating inner cylinder moves on an offset track. Thus the system is also characterized by a varying annulus. That changes the eccentricity which is also related to the critical Reynolds number for the system. There is a higher Reynolds number for a higher eccentricity. This is used as a benchmark to validate the code. Depending on the eccentric position of the rotating inner cylinder one can notice either Taylor Vortex flow or Couette Flow. After testing the code the gap width will be adjusted to realistic bearing geometries. This second part refers to bearing simulations where the gap width is adjusted to real bearing conditions. In Fact the present system is a simplified bearing, which covers not all details of a real one. It becomes more complex in later stages of the project, where oil feedings and notches are implemented as well as the occurrence of cavitation. Furthermore the offset tracks will be much more complex. The final goal is to develop a 3D simulation tool for hydrodynamic journal bearings that resolves effects like cross flow from the oil feedings and also cavitation. Known methods based on the Reynolds equations fail to predict important flow characteristics in complex bearing geometries due to their two dimensional nature. If sufficiently low local pressure areas occur, cavitation- related damages may appear. So the pressure distribution of the flow is of interest

A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events

Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) the existence of two different climate states, (ii) a threshold process and (iii) an overshooting in the stability of the system at the start and the end of the events, which is followed by a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2), in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance) and provide the first explicitly reported manifestation of ghost resonance in a geosystem, i.e. of a mechanism which could be relevant for other systems with thresholds and with multiple states of operation. Our work enables us to explicitly simulate realistic probability measures of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (e.g. waiting time distributions, which are a prerequisite for statistical analyses on the regularity of the events by means of Monte-Carlo simulations). We thus think that our study is an important advance in order to develop more adequate methods to test the statistical significance and the origin of the proposed glacial 1470-year climate cycle

The Duration of the Effects of Repeated Widespread Badger Culling on Cattle Tuberculosis Following the Cessation of Culling

Background: In the British Isles, control of cattle tuberculosis (TB) is hindered by persistent infection of wild badger (Meles meles) populations. A large-scale field trial—the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT)—previously showed that widespread badger culling produced modest reductions in cattle TB incidence during culling, which were offset by elevated TB risks for cattle on adjoining lands. Once culling was halted, beneficial effects inside culling areas increased, while detrimental effects on adjoining lands disappeared. However, a full assessment of the utility of badger culling requires information on the duration of culling effects. Methodology/Principal Findings: We monitored cattle TB incidence in and around RBCT areas after culling ended. We found that benefits inside culled areas declined over time, and were no longer detectable by three years post-culling. On adjoining lands, a trend suggesting beneficial effects immediately after the end of culling was insignificant, and disappeared after 18 months post-culling. From completion of the first cull to the loss of detectable effects (an average five-year culling period plus 2.5 years post-culling), cattle TB incidence was 28.7% lower (95% confidence interval [CI] 20.7 to 35.8% lower) inside ten 100 km2 culled areas than inside ten matched no-culling areas, and comparable (11.7% higher, 95% CI: 13.0% lower to 43.4% higher, p = 0.39) on lands #2 km outside culled and no-culling areas. The financial costs of culling an idealized 150 km2 area would exceed the savings achieved through reduced cattle TB, by factors of 2 to 3.5. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings show that the reductions in cattle TB incidence achieved by repeated badger culling were not sustained in the long term after culling ended and did not offset the financial costs of culling. These results, combined with evaluation of alternative culling methods, suggest that badger culling is unlikely to contribute effectively to the control of cattle TB in Britain

Simulating ice core 10Be on the glacial–interglacial timescale

10Be ice core measurements are an important tool for paleoclimate research, e.g., allowing for the reconstruction of past solar activity or changes in the geomagnetic dipole field. However, especially on multi-millennial timescales, the share of production and climate-induced variations of respective 10Be ice core records is still up for debate. Here we present the first quantitative climatological model of the 10Be ice concentration up to the glacial–interglacial timescale. The model approach is composed of (i) a coarse resolution global atmospheric transport model and (ii) a local 10Be air–firn transfer model. Extensive global-scale observational data of short-lived radionuclides as well as new polar 10Be snow-pit measurements are used for model calibration and validation. Being specifically configured for 10Be in polar ice, this tool thus allows for a straightforward investigation of production- and non-production-related modulation of this nuclide. We find that the polar 10Be ice concentration does not immediately record the globally mixed cosmogenic production signal. Using geomagnetic modulation and revised Greenland snow accumulation rate changes as model input, we simulate the observed Greenland Summit (GRIP and GISP2) 10Be ice core records over the last 75 kyr (on the GICC05modelext timescale). We show that our basic model is capable of reproducing the largest portion of the observed 10Be changes. However, model–measurement differences exhibit multi-millennial trends (differences up to 87% in case of normalized to the Holocene records) which call for closer investigation. Focusing on the (12–37) b2k (before the year AD 2000) period, mean model–measurement differences of 30% cannot be attributed to production changes. However, unconsidered climate-induced changes could likely explain the model–measurement mismatch. In fact, the 10Be ice concentration is very sensitive to snow accumulation changes. Here the reconstructed Greenland Summit (GRIP) snow accumulation rate record would require revision of +28% to solely account for the (12–37) b2k model–measurement differences

Migration and public finances in the EU

We provide novel and comprehensive evidence on the net fiscal contributions of natives and migrants to the governmental budgets of EU countries. We account for income taxes and cash benefits, along with indirect taxes and in-kind benefits, which are often missing in standard datasets. We find that on average, migrants were net contributors to public finances over the period of 2014–2018 in the EU and, moreover, that they contribute approximately €1.5 thousand more per capita each year than natives. We also show that this difference is partly due to the selection on characteristics that make migrants net fiscal contributors, such as demographic factors and employment probability

A thermophilic phage uses a small terminase protein with a fixed helix-turn-helix geometry [preprint]

Tailed bacteriophage use a DNA packaging motor to encapsulate their genome during viral particle assembly. The small terminase (TerS) component acts as a molecular matchmaker by recognizing the viral genome as well as the main motor component, the large terminase (TerL). How TerS binds DNA and the TerL protein remains unclear. Here, we identify the TerS protein of the thermophilic bacteriophage P74-26. TerSP76-26 oligomerizes into a nonamer that binds DNA, stimulates TerL ATPase activity, and inhibits TerL nuclease activity. Our cryo-EM structure shows that TerSP76-26 forms a ring with a wide central pore and radially arrayed helix-turn-helix (HTH) domains. These HTH domains, which are thought to bind DNA by wrapping the helix around the ring, are rigidly held in an orientation distinct from that seen in other TerS proteins. This rigid arrangement of the putative DNA binding domain imposes strong constraints on how TerSP76-26 can bind DNA. Finally, the TerSP76-26 structure lacks the conserved C-terminal β-barrel domain used by other TerS proteins for binding TerL, suggesting that a well-ordered C-terminal β-barrel domain is not necessary for TerS to carry out its function as a matchmaker