Adaptive Management and the Value of Information: Learning Via Intervention in Epidemiology

Optimal intervention for disease outbreaks is often impeded by severe scientific uncertainty. Adaptive management (AM), long-used in natural resource management, is a structured decision-making approach to solving dynamic problems that accounts for the value of resolving uncertainty via real-time evaluation of alternative models. We propose an AM approach to design and evaluate intervention strategies in epidemiology, using real-time surveillance to resolve model uncertainty as management proceeds, with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) culling and measles vaccination as case studies. We use simulations of alternative intervention strategies under competing models to quantify the effect of model uncertainty on decision making, in terms of the value of information, and quantify the benefit of adaptive versus static intervention strategies. Culling decisions during the 2001 UK FMD outbreak were contentious due to uncertainty about the spatial scale of transmission. The expected benefit of resolving this uncertainty prior to a new outbreak on a UK-like landscape would be £45–£60 million relative to the strategy that minimizes livestock losses averaged over alternate transmission models. AM during the outbreak would be expected to recover up to £20.1 million of this expected benefit. AM would also recommend a more conservative initial approach (culling of infected premises and dangerous contact farms) than would a fixed strategy (which would additionally require culling of contiguous premises). For optimal targeting of measles vaccination, based on an outbreak in Malawi in 2010, AM allows better distribution of resources across the affected region; its utility depends on uncertainty about both the at-risk population and logistical capacity. When daily vaccination rates are highly constrained, the optimal initial strategy is to conduct a small, quick campaign; a reduction in expected burden of approximately 10,000 cases could result if campaign targets can be updated on the basis of the true susceptible population. Formal incorporation of a policy to update future management actions in response to information gained in the course of an outbreak can change the optimal initial response and result in significant cost savings. AM provides a framework for using multiple models to facilitate public-health decision making and an objective basis for updating management actions in response to improved scientific understanding

Sleep Disorders and Demand for Medical Services: Evidence from a Population-Based Longitudinal Study

Background: The aim of this study was to investigate whether insomnia and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) were predictors of hospitalizations or emergency department visits during two years following the Sao Paulo Epidemiologic Sleep Study (EPISONO) sample. Methods and Findings: All participants (n = 1,101) who underwent a baseline evaluation between July and December 2007 were contacted in December 2009 and asked to fill out a questionnaire about body weight changes, number of hospitalizations and visits to the emergency department. Participants lost during the follow-up period represented 3.2 % (n = 35) and 7 subjects had died. Hospitalizations were reported by 116 volunteers (10.5%) and emergency department visits were reported by 136 participants (12.4%). The average body mass index (BMI) did not vary significantly between the first and the second assessment [26.7(95%CI:26.3–27.1) vs. 26.9(26.5–27.4) kg/m2]. After adjusting for confounders, a multiple logistic regression model revealed that female gender [1.4(1.0–1.9)], age $40 years, insomnia diagnosed according to the DSM-IV criteria [1.6(1.0–2.6)], and apneahypopnea index$15 [1.5(1.0–2.2)] were predictors of hospitalizations and/or demand for emergency services. Conclusion: Our study of a probabilistic sample of the Sao Paulo inhabitants shows that over a period of two years, insomnia and OSA were both associated with health impairment. Considering the high prevalence and public health burden of slee

MRCP compared to diagnostic ERCP for diagnosis when biliary obstruction is suspected: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) is an alternative to diagnostic endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) for investigating biliary obstruction. The use of MRCP, a non-invasive procedure, may prevent the use of unnecessary invasive procedures. The aim of the study was to compare the findings of MRCP with those of ERCP by the computation of accuracy statistics. METHODS: Thirteen electronic bibliographic databases, covering biomedical, science, health economics and grey literature were searched. A systematic review of studies comparing MRCP to diagnostic ERCP in patients with suspected biliary obstruction was conducted. Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, acceptability and adverse events were reported. RESULTS: 25 studies were identified reporting several conditions including choledocholithiasis (18 studies), malignancy (four studies), obstruction (three studies), stricture (two studies) and dilatation (five studies). Three of the 18 studies reporting choledocholithiasis were excluded from the analysis due to lack of data, or differences in study design. The sensitivity for the 15 studies of choledocholithiasis ranged from 0.50 to 1.00 while specificity ranged from 0.83 to 1.00. The positive likelihood ratio ranged: from 5.44–47.72 and the negative likelihood ratio for the 15 studies ranged from 0.00–0.51. Significant heterogeneity was found across the 15 studies so the sensitivities and specificities were summarised by a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. For malignancy, sensitivity ranged from 0.81 to 0.94 and specificity from 0.92 to 1.00. Positive likelihood ratios ranged from 10.12 to 43 and negative likelihood ratios ranged from 0.15 to 0.21, although these estimates were less reliable. CONCLUSION: MRCP is a comparable diagnostic investigation in comparison to ERCP for diagnosing biliary obstruction

Sleep disturbances in an arctic population: The Tromsø Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prevalence estimates for insomnia range from 10 to 50% in the adult general population. Sleep disturbances cause great impairment in quality of life, which might even rival or exceed the impairment in other chronic medical disorders. The economic implications and use of health-care services related to chronic insomnia represent a clinical concern as well as a pronounced public health problem. Hypnotics are frequently prescribed for insomnia, but alcohol and over-the-counter sleep aids seem to be more widely used by insomniacs than prescription medications. Despite the complex relationship between insomnia and physical and mental health factors, the condition appears to be underrecognized and undertreated by health care providers, probably due to the generally limited knowledge of the causes and natural development of insomnia.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The Tromsø Study is an ongoing population-based cohort study with five previous health studies undertaken between 1974 and 2001. This protocol outlines a planned study within the sixth Tromsø Study (Tromsø VI), aiming at; 1) describing sleep patterns in a community-based sample representative of the general population of northern Norway, and 2) examining outcome variables of sleep disturbances against possible explanatory and confounding variables, both within a cross-sectional approach, as well as retrospectively in a longitudinal study – exploring sleep patterns in subjects who have attended two or more of the previous Tromsø studies between 1974 and 2009. First, we plan to perform a simple screening in order to identify those participants with probable sleep disturbances, and secondly to investigate these sleep disturbances further, using an extensive sleep-questionnaire. We will also collect biological explanatory variables, i.e. blood samples, weight, height and blood pressure. We plan to merge data on an individual level from the Tromsø VI Study with data from the Norwegian Prescription Database (NorPD), which is a national registry including data for all prescription drugs issued at Norwegian pharmacies. Participants with sleep disturbances will be compared with pair-matched controls without sleep disturbances.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Despite ongoing research, many challenges remain in the characterization of sleep disturbances and its correlates. Future mapping of the biological dimensions, natural history, as well as the behavioral and drug-related aspects of sleep disturbances in a representative population samples is clearly needed.</p

Genome Sequence of the Versatile Fish Pathogen Edwardsiella tarda Provides Insights into its Adaptation to Broad Host Ranges and Intracellular Niches

BACKGROUND:Edwardsiella tarda is the etiologic agent of edwardsiellosis, a devastating fish disease prevailing in worldwide aquaculture industries. Here we describe the complete genome of E. tarda, EIB202, a highly virulent and multi-drug resistant isolate in China. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:E. tarda EIB202 possesses a single chromosome of 3,760,463 base pairs containing 3,486 predicted protein coding sequences, 8 ribosomal rRNA operons, and 95 tRNA genes, and a 43,703 bp conjugative plasmid harboring multi-drug resistant determinants and encoding type IV A secretion system components. We identified a full spectrum of genetic properties related to its genome plasticity such as repeated sequences, insertion sequences, phage-like proteins, integrases, recombinases and genomic islands. In addition, analysis also indicated that a substantial proportion of the E. tarda genome might be devoted to the growth and survival under diverse conditions including intracellular niches, with a large number of aerobic or anaerobic respiration-associated proteins, signal transduction proteins as well as proteins involved in various stress adaptations. A pool of genes for secretion systems, pili formation, nonfimbrial adhesions, invasions and hemagglutinins, chondroitinases, hemolysins, iron scavenging systems as well as the incomplete flagellar biogenesis might feature its surface structures and pathogenesis in a fish body. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE:Genomic analysis of the bacterium offered insights into the phylogeny, metabolism, drug-resistance, stress adaptation, and virulence characteristics of this versatile pathogen, which constitutes an important first step in understanding the pathogenesis of E. tarda to facilitate construction of a practical effective vaccine used for combating fish edwardsiellosis