Spatio-temporal Functional Regression on Paleo-ecological Data

The influence of climate on biodiversity is an important ecological question. Various theories try to link climate change to allelic richness and therefore to predict the impact of global warming on genetic diversity. We model the relationship between genetic diversity in the European beech forests and curves of temperature and precipitation reconstructed from pollen databases. Our model links the genetic measure to the climate curves through a linear functional regression. The interaction in climate variables is assumed to be bilinear. Since the data are georeferenced, our methodology accounts for the spatial dependence among the observations. The practical issues of these extensions are discussed

High-resolution marine data and transient simulations support orbital forcing of ENSO amplitude since the mid-Holocene

Lack of constraint on spatial and long-term temporal variability of the El Niño southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its sensitivity to external forcing limit our ability to evaluate climate models and ENSO future projections. Current knowledge of Holocene ENSO variability derived from paleoclimate reconstructions does not separate the role of insolation forcing from internal climate variability. Using an updated synthesis of coral and bivalve monthly resolved records, we build composite records of seasonality and interannual variability in four regions of the tropical Pacific: Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), Western Pacific (WP) and South West Pacific (SWP). An analysis of the uncertainties due to the sampling of chaotic multidecadal to centennial variability by short records allows for an objective comparison with transient simulations (mid-Holocene to present) performed using four different Earth System models. Sea surface temperature and pseudo-δ18O are used in model-data comparisons to assess the potential influence of hydroclimate change on records. We confirm the significance of the Holocene ENSO minimum (HEM) 3-6ka compared to low frequency unforced modulation of ENSO, with a reduction of ENSO variance of ∼50 % in EP and ∼80 % in CP. The approach suggests that the increasing trend of ENSO since 6ka can be attributed to insolation, while models underestimate ENSO sensitivity to orbital forcing by a factor of 4.7 compared to data, even when accounting for the large multidecadal variability. Precession-induced change in seasonal temperature range is positively linked to ENSO variance in EP and to a lesser extent in other regions, in both models and observations. Our regional approach yields insights into the past spatial expression of ENSO across the tropical Pacific. In the SWP, today under the influence of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), interannual variability was increased by ∼200 % during the HEM, indicating that SPCZ variability is independent from ENSO on millennial time scales

VARIATIONS DEPUIS 10000 ANS DE LA REPARTITION ET DE LA PRODUCTIVITE DES FORETS D'ALTITUDE DANS LES ALPES ET LE JURA ET SIMULATION DES CHANGEMENTS FUTURS

Ce travail repose sur les charbons de bois enfouis dans les sols et les autres macrorestes ont été datés par 14C et identifiés botaniquement, et pour un site particulier (lac Cristol), sur les analyses de pollens, d'insectes, de macro-restes végétaux, charbons de bois et tronc d'arbres ont été combinés en une « approche multi-proxy » afin de mieux comprendre les variations de la forêt de montagne en réponse aux changements climatiques globaux et à l'activité anthropique. Les variations de la limite de la forêt sont de plus de 500 m durant l'Holocène. La période la plus chaude semble avoir été 9000-8000 ans cal B.P. (années calendaires avant le présent). Les hauts niveaux lacustres du début et de la fin de l'Holocène sont de natures en fait assez différentes. Au début de l'Holocène ils sont principalement dus à une évapotranspiration plus faible, et à la fin de l'Holocène à des précipitations plus élevées. L'ensemble de ces informations a permis de tester un modèle de végétation (Biome3) par une utilisation en mode inverse et à essayer de prédire l'évolution de la végétation. Un doublement de CO2 permet à la végétation d'évoluer vers des conditions plus tempérées. Une « forêt mixte tempérée », pourra devenir une forêt décidue tempérée grâce à des hivers nettement plus doux et à une meilleure efficacité dans l'utilisation de l'eau en été. Ces sites d'altitude ont connu une telle végétation entre 9000 et 8000 ans cal B.P

The ACER pollen and charcoal database: a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D–O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73–15 ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U∕230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), 40Ar∕39Ar-dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft AccessTM at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867

The origin and spread of olive cultivation in the Mediterranean Basin:The fossil pollen evidence

Olive (Olea europaea L.) was one of the most important fruit trees in the ancient Mediterranean region and a founder species of horticulture in the Mediterranean Basin. Different views have been expressed regarding the geographical origins and timing of olive cultivation. Since genetic studies and macro-botanical remains point in different directions, we turn to another proxy \u2013 the palynological evidence. This study uses pollen records to shed new light on the history of olive cultivation and large-scale olive management. We employ a fossil pollen dataset composed of high-resolution pollen records obtained across the Mediterranean Basin covering most of the Holocene. Human activity is indicated when Olea pollen percentages rise fairly suddenly, are not accompanied by an increase of other Mediterranean sclerophyllous trees, and when the rise occurs in combination with consistent archaeological and archaeobotanical evidence. Based on these criteria, our results show that the southern Levant served as the locus of primary olive cultivation as early as ~6500 years BP (yBP), and that a later, early/mid 6th millennium BP cultivation process occurred in the Aegean (Crete) \u2013 whether as an independent large-scale management event or as a result of knowledge and/or seedling transfer from the southern Levant. Thus, the early management of olive trees corresponds to the establishment of the Mediterranean village economy and the completion of the \u2018secondary products revolution\u2019, rather than urbanization or state formation. From these two areas of origin, the southern Levant and the Aegean olive cultivation spread across the Mediterranean, with the beginning of olive horticulture in the northern Levant dated to ~4800 yBP. In Anatolia, large-scale olive horticulture was palynologically recorded by ~3200 yBP, in mainland Italy at ~3400 yBP, and in the Iberian Peninsula at mid/late 3rd millennium BP

Paleoclimats au nord de la Mediterranee orientale depuis 250 000 ans : analyse pollinique et stratigraphie isotopique de quatre carottes marines

SIGLECNRS T Bordereau / INIST-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et TechniqueFRFranc

How the Asian subtropical area became evergreen since the Last Glacial Maximum

International audienc

Past climate changes and the role of refugia in the temperate Northern Hemisphere

International audienceClassical and cryptic glacial refugia plant species' potential range (fundamental niche) is delineated by a climate space that they often occupy only partially (realized niche). Generally, temperate plant species tend to occupy a wider geographical range when climate is warm and wet, and retract when climate is cold and dry. During the last glacial period, cold-tolerant herbs dominated the mid-to high-latitude landscape in both hemispheres and the range of most temperate tree species was reduced to discrete populations until the climate became warmer and wetter during the Holocene, which allowed them to expand