On the maximum-entropy/autoregressive modeling of time series

The autoregressive (AR) model of a random process is interpreted in the light of the Prony's relation which relates a complex conjugate pair of poles of the AR process in the z-plane (or the z domain) on the one hand, to the complex frequency of one complex harmonic function in the time domain on the other. Thus the AR model of a time series is one that models the time series as a linear combination of complex harmonic functions, which include pure sinusoids and real exponentials as special cases. An AR model is completely determined by its z-domain pole configuration. The maximum-entropy/autogressive (ME/AR) spectrum, defined on the unit circle of the z-plane (or the frequency domain), is nothing but a convenient, but ambiguous visual representation. It is asserted that the position and shape of a spectral peak is determined by the corresponding complex frequency, and the height of the spectral peak contains little information about the complex amplitude of the complex harmonic functions

Excitation of the Earth's Chandler wobble by southern oscillation/El Nino, 1900-1979

The southern oscillation/El Nino (ENSO) is the single most prominent interannual signal in global atmospheric/oceanic fluctuations. The following question is addressed: how important is the angular momentum carried by ENSO in exciting the Earth's Chandler wobble? The question is attacked through a statistical analysis of the coherence spectra (correlation as a function of frequency) between two data sets spanning 1900 to 1979-the southern oscillation index (SOI) time series and the excitation function psi (with x-component psi sub x and y-component psi sub y) of the Chandler wobble derived from the homogeneous ILS (International Latitude Service) polar motion data. The coherence power and phase in the Chandler frequency band (approx. 0.79 to 0.89 cpy) are studied. It is found that, during 1900 to 1979 the coherence between SOI and psi sub x is significant well over the 95% confidence threshold whereas that between SOI and psi sub y is practically nil. Quantitatively, the coherence study shows that ENSO provides some 20% of the observed Chandler wobble excitation power. Since earlier investigations have shown that the total atmospheric/oceanic variation can account for the Chandler wobble excitation at about 20% level, the implication is that ENSO maybe an important (interannual) part of the atmospheric/oceanic variation that is responsible for the Chandler wobble excitation during 1900 to 1979

In search of patterns of land-use in Mexico City using logistic regression at the plot level

The study of big cities’ tendency to decentralisation is in the current agenda to understand the structure of Latin American cities. In general, centres and subcentres are related to specific functions. According to the theories of the movement economy and centrality as a process, the urban grid shapes land use distribution through movement and therefore is the main determinant of the location of ‘live centres’, a key component of centres. Activities related to ‘live centres’ include retail, catering and other movement dependent uses. However, the distribution of this kind of activity in cities like Mexico is not as spatially clear as it is in organically grown cities. In this paper we show that, nonetheless complex, there is a relationship between the location of ‘live centre’ uses and spatial configuration. We use multiple logistic regression to evaluate exactly how much influence each variable has on the outcome ‘shop’ given the presence of all the others. The results also suggest different spatial influences for different types of retail on different scales of centres

Predictability of the Earth's polar motion

A comprehensive, experimental study of the predictability of the polar motion using a homogeneous BIH (Bureau International de l'Heure) data set is presented. Based on knowledge of the physics of the annual and the Chandler wobbles, the numerical model for the polar motion is constructed by allowing the wobble periods to vary. Using an optimum base length of 6 years for prediction, this floating-period model, equipped with a non-linear least-squares estimator, is found to yield polar motion predictions accurate from 0.012 to 0.024 inches depending on the prediction length up to one year, corresponding to a predictability of 91-83%. This represents a considerable improvement over the conventional fixed-period predictor, which does not respond to variations in the apparent wobble periods. The superiority of the floating-period predictor to other predictors based on critically different numerical models is also demonstrated

On excitation of Earth's free wobble and reference frames

The excitation of the Earth's polar motion in connection with problems that are associated with the diversity of reference frames involved in observations and theoretical computations is studied. Following the dynamics of the Earth's polar motion, the kinematics that relates observations from different reference frames is developed. The conventional procedures of studying the seismic excitation of polar motion are re-examined, subject to the question: relative to what reference frame? It is concluded that an inconsistency in reference frames has prevailed in the literature. While this inconsistency is indeed far from trivial, the resultant discrepancy, however, is small for all practical purposes

Inequalities, asymptotic expansions and completely monotonic functions related to the gamma function

In this paper, we present some completely monotonic functions and asymptotic expansions related to the gamma function. Based on the obtained expansions, we provide new bounds for Γ(x + 1)/Γ(x + 1/2) and Γ(x + 1/2)

Inequalities and asymptotic expansions related to the volume of the unit ball in Rⁿ

Let Ωn=πn/2/Γ(n2+1)(n∈N)Ωn=πn/2/Γ(n2+1)(n∈N) denote the volume of the unit ball in RnRn. In this paper, we present asymptotic expansions and inequalities related to ΩnΩn and the quantities:Ωn−1Ωn,ΩnΩn−1+Ωn+1andΩ1/nnΩ1/(n+1)n+1

On the asymptotics of products related to generalizations of the Wilf and Mortini problems

In this paper, we present the connection between generalized Wilf’sand Mortini’s problems. We also consider the connection betweenanother infinite product formula and limit relation with severalparameters